I liked this Mark Thoma piece about the shifting of the Overton Window. I think I alluded to this with my story on a new round of tax cuts being humped by the GOP, and the new bipartisan consensus on the virtue of tax cuts as a stimulus measure. I know exactly what the Administration would say, they’re trying to get things done, and a payroll tax cut mimics a wage increase. And on the merits, that’s fine. But the point I made earlier is that it’s the ideological drift that you get when you fight on the other side’s turf that becomes the problem. This is what Thoma gets at in his piece:
For example, consider the current discussion over the president’s proposed budget, a budget that is touted as “broadly consistent with the bipartisan deficit reduction proposals put forward by the Bowles-Simpson Commission.”
I thought the recommendations for balancing the budget that came out of the Bowles-Simpson committee gave far too much to the GOP – the solutions that were proposed were much further to the right of the political spectrum than I would have preferred. My recollection is that people such as Paul Krugman and Dean Baker were critical as well (and recall that there was no official report because four Democrats and three Republicans on the seventeen member committee could not agree to the recommendations on the table — instead we got an unofficial report from the committee chairs, Bowles and Simpson).
However, Republicans have shifted the debate so far to the right that Bowles-Simpson is now being portrayed by the administration and others as a model of balance, reason, and compromise that both sides ought to embrace.
Thoma adds that Tim Geithner actually backed off of one aspect of Bowles-Simpson, the Social Security changes, because they were, in Geithner’s words, too tilted on the side of benefit cuts. But the problem lies in making Bowles-Simpson as the wise middle ground in the debate. When the President reached out to John Boehner with a deficit plan that was actually to the right of Bowles-Simpson, again playing on the opposing turf, then it was foreordained that Bowles-Simpson would become the moderate compromise, even though it couldn’t even get a vote on its own committee.
Thoma links to a Treasury Department blog that makes almost exactly the point I’ve been making – the President’s budget doesn’t shy away from the long-sought goal of deficit reduction, and at the same level as before. It changes some of the ratios of how the deficit reduction gets achieved, but by and large the same goals are in the foreground.
The Budget released by the President this week uses a balanced approach to achieve more than $4 trillion in deficit reduction over the next 10 years. This level of savings and the manner in which they are accomplished are broadly consistent with the bipartisan deficit reduction proposals put forward by the Bowles-Simpson Commission and the Senate’s bipartisan “Gang of Six.” Using this balanced approach, the President’s Budget reduces deficits from about 9 percent of GDP in 2011 to below 3 percent by 2018, and stabilizes the debt as a share of the economy by the middle of the decade.
In general, there is little disagreement on the magnitude of savings that are needed over the next decade to put us on a sustainable fiscal course. Rather, the main difference between the President and Republicans are related to the composition of these savings.
There’s actually substantial disagreement over the magnitude of savings. There’s an entire school of economics, known as Modern Monetary Theory, which would disagree on that broad point. But they have been largely written out of the discussion (though I’m glad to see MMT written up in the Washington Post this weekend).
So both sides play a role in shifting the Overton Window to the right. And the result is a set of policy choices that get artificially narrowed. Thoma says that the President has managed to “stop the rightward drift in the center of the conversation” and that we need someone to start shifting it back. He questions whether the President is up to that task ideologically, i.e. whether he even wants to engage on those terms. I don’t even think this is much of a question at this point.





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I blame Alan Greenspan. The “fixes ” to Social Security that his commission got in the 80′s made benefits fair game for future demagogues, and Greenspan’s complaining in the 90′s that the Clinton-era surpluses would castrate the Fed provided the “serious” rationale for the Bush tax cuts, which are clearly never going to reversed.
If you thought December, 2010, was bad, just wait for December, 2012.
Agreed. The conversation has shifted farther right than I ever would have thought possible just a few years ago.
That the people in charge – pres and his advisors – will ever see how wrong it is to use the other side’s language and baseline – I sincerely doubt.
Depressing. Bowles-Simpson was a travesty – it should have been rejected out of hand by every single Democrat, but it wasn’t. And this is the result.
It is NOT a centrist position by any means. And no, there is NOT general agreement.
(sorry Dave, not arguing with you. You are right on point.)
“pres and his advisors” are the other side.
One cannot — repeat cannot — determine, ex ante, the “magnitude of savings” required to put the nation on a “sustainable fiscal course.” The level of savings (and spending) that are needed depends on the level of economic activity required to fully employ our resources. And that level may require government deficits as far as the eye can see.
One of the biggest — if not THE biggest — flaws in current mainstream economics is the belief that deficits reduce savings — that is, steal resources from the private sector. Wrong. Deficits PROVIDE the savings needed to fully employ the nation’s resources. If the private sector wants to save — to deleverage — the government must provide the savings by running a deficit.
It used to be that assholes like Larry Summers could point to high interest rates — crowding out — as a reason to run a surplus. But now that it has been demonstrated that there is NO relationship between deficits and interest rates or the level of debt, they now talk knowingly about “the magnitude of savings that are needed over the next decade to put us on a sustainable fiscal course.”
It’s all bullshit. Complete bullshit.
On any number of fronts — social, economic, military, etc — so-called liberal democracy is being drowned in the bathtub by this shift. I view the whole phenomena through the meme of characterizing this country (US) as a “center right” society. All I see is contradictory evidence on any given issue. But still the MSM insist on reporting, or generating, the mindset of this center right nation.
I don’t know if the wise guys in the administration are playing fast and loose because of the, perhaps inherent, tendency of insiders to think they are both above and in control of the debate, hence not subject to the Overton impact. Or maybe they just don’t care.
To me, it’s a powerful force, and if we haven’t learned what Marshall McCluan was trying to tell us decades ago, relevant here I think, we better learn quickly, that the terms of the debate, and parameters, determine the possible outcomes.
Exactly. And this is where Obama is such a catastrophe. He lets the other side determine the terms of the debate. It’s a form of triangulation — beat them at their own game. But when you do that, they ultimately win because the terms of the debate determine the possible outcomes.
Of course, most on FDL think he does that because he’s one of them.
I am not an economist but from what I read about MMT the whole meme about deficits are bullshit. You spend what you need to for the public purpose and the hell with debt and deficit.
Yes. If the government doesn’t spend what is necessary to keep the nation’s resources near fully employed, the deficit and debt RISE, not fall. This is how the right — with Osterity’s help — will destroy the social safety net. Rail on and on about the deficit and debt until government is paralyzed and cannot spend. This makes the deficit and debt WORSE. Then, of course, SS and Medicare MUST be cut because “we can’t afford them.”
I got into a little spat with Charles Pierce at the last Book Salon about this, When Obama repeats time and time again that “the government is just like a family,” he is saying the most anti-progressive thing he can possibly say. All progressive goals — all of them — are off the table if one accepts this position.
Pierce admits that it’s wrong for Obama to say it, but maintains it’s not “anti-progressive, per se.”
Yes, it is.
That is one line that infuriates me about Obama.it shows him to be ignorant or a right wing tool,take your pick.
Dave, Of course a lot of MMT blogging has gone on here at MyFDL. Glad to see you mentioning it every once in awhile. It would be great if FDL would begin to push it seriously. If we could get all hands on deck, then we might be a lot closer to getting Congress to seriously a comprehensive MMT stimulus package topped off with a Job Guarantee bill for everyone who wants full time work.
That sounds like a good thing to do. I’ll second it.
The government doesn’t create jobs. /s
It would be great if they did, like say in the depression.
They’re almost all Republicans in DC, just different flavors.
Only elected Democrats and Republicans get to vote on this shit, I don’t get to vote on it. A few modern Democrats are what the liberal Republicans of the 1950′s and 1960′s were, or they’re more conservative (than, say, John Lindsay or Earl Warren). The Republicans aren’t conservative, they’re reactionary. So, of course the policies will be centrist or center-right.
He’s worked it too perfectly to be ignorant; if you ignore the human cost, it’s really a work of beauty. The “payroll tax holiday” is a four-headed beast…
1) it starves SS of revenue, laying the groundwork for future cuts (remember, the only reason we didn’t get a “Grand Bargain” last year is because Boehner didn’t want to let Osterity to claim that “success”)
2) it reinforces the corporate frame that taxes are an evil thing (rather than “the price we pay for civilized society”) and that relief from them is the best way to help people
3) it’s Obanka’s “populist” achievement, with all his “text Congress at 10.40 to show what $40/week means to working people” bullshit stunts, which raise the PTH to a level of pseudo-importance where Obanka can “compromise” by slicing UI benefits by a THIRD (with 15 million Americans currently on UI and another 10 million unemployed! Some “Democrat”!)
4) it gives him cover on non-economic matters so he can murder and torture like no President before him and let the Catholic church perforate women’s rights…but hey, he’s fighting for the workers! Payroll tax holiday!
You can’t convince me that this is a lucky accident; this was planned from the moment Obama “caved” at the end of 2010, if not from when he set up the Catfood Commission to begin with. Before he was even sworn in, he said he wanted to “fix” the “entitlement” programs.
He’s a traitorous piece of shit from his hair to his foot fungus. When the revolution comes, I will enjoy seeing him beaten and bloodied, hopefully every night on my TV. (Except that I can’t afford TV service and will probably have committed suicide before then.) Just because I’m against the death penalty doesn’t mean I don’t to see this sack of shit hurt badly, and often.
Serial-killing psychopathic vermin.
Yes, Barry himself said that. Well, he probably doesn’t know anybody who has a government job, right? I mean, it’s not like HE’s a Federal employee or anything…oh, wait.
if thoma really wanted to shift the overton window, he would start posting more on MMT, and link to articles by galbraith, wray & kelton…sadly, krugman is as far out as mark has been willing to go…
Obama is the other side. He just hopes that Republicans give him cover – like with ACA Obama had secretly cut a corporate deal and then he hoped that the Republicans would go along with his own secret deal in order to give him cover.
Right, if he was serious about enacting progressive policy (or for that matter, a moderate compromise), his opening position would have been something like the Congressional Progressive Caucus’s People’s Budget (a terrible name. I know they were tipping their hat to Lloyd George’s famous 1909 PB but this isn’t Fancy Entourage).
Staying on that theme, the Chicken Lady is a lot cooler… I urge you to click on the last link for the backfill on THAT (“Ha ha, it is a bike!”). Seriously go click on it now. :o)
this guy is the BEST thing that could happen to the thugs – they get 90% of the policie$ which really matter
(when we’are all working 12 hours a day, 6 days a week for $290 a month … who is gonna give a shit if gay lilly ledbetter has birth control?)
and the Dim-0-Fucks get the blame.
$ocial Cla$$ is THE PROBLEM – too few of the “leaders” of the democratic party live out where all the shit programs and all the shit cuts and all the shit rules hurt.
rmm