I love this story. It’s one of those that calls to mind the old Margaret Mead dictum, “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it’s the only thing that ever has.”
Icelanders who pelted parliament with rocks in 2009 demanding their leaders and bankers answer for the country’s economic and financial collapse are reaping the benefits of their anger.
Since the end of 2008, the island’s banks have forgiven loans equivalent to 13 percent of gross domestic product, easing the debt burdens of more than a quarter of the population, according to a report published this month by the Icelandic Financial Services Association.
So does the story end there? Did the people revolt and the banks give in, leading to a lower standard of living or some financial disaster or something? No. Debt deleveraging successfully brought back the Icelandic economy.
The island’s steps to resurrect itself since 2008, when its banks defaulted on $85 billion, are proving effective. Iceland’s economy will this year outgrow the euro area and the developed world on average, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates. It costs about the same to insure against an Icelandic default as it does to guard against a credit event in Belgium. Most polls now show Icelanders don’t want to join the European Union, where the debt crisis is in its third year.
The island’s households were helped by an agreement between the government and the banks, which are still partly controlled by the state, to forgive debt exceeding 110 percent of home values. On top of that, a Supreme Court ruling in June 2010 found loans indexed to foreign currencies were illegal, meaning households no longer need to cover krona losses.
We’ve heard in this country for the past several years of housing crisis that principal forgiveness rewards bad actors and causes moral hazard, and that we can’t do that to the poor, put-upon banks. Well guess what? Debt write-downs work. They generate a wealth effect among the population, and they help to end balance-sheet recessions and bring about economic growth. What’s more, Icelandic home values came back, just 3% off their September 2008 pre-crisis level. You can take the example of Iceland or you can take the example of the rest of Europe. It’s your choice. But the facts reveal that austerity is counter-productive, while debt forgiveness is extremely productive.
The banks, however, like back-door bailouts and hate having to forgive some of the debt owed to them. So they create this elaborate alternative reality, a morality play more than anything, where people must be punished for their profligate sins (even if they had nothing to do with their debt woes). But this sentence sums up the issue: “Iceland’s approach to dealing with the meltdown has put the needs of its population ahead of the markets (read: banks) at every turn.” Elites don’t want this secret to get out, that you can do that and thrive. Tell a friend. And grab a pot and start banging it.
P.S. Here’s another element of the Icelandic comeback: they are actually prosecuting the people who caused the crisis:
Iceland’s special prosecutor has said it may indict as many as 90 people, while more than 200, including the former chief executives at the three biggest banks, face criminal charges.
Larus Welding, the former CEO of Glitnir Bank hf, once Iceland’s second biggest, was indicted in December for granting illegal loans and is now waiting to stand trial. The former CEO of Landsbanki Islands hf, Sigurjon Arnason, has endured stints of solitary confinement as his criminal investigation continues.
In my next life I’m going to be Iceland.




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*heh* Fancy that…! Common Sense really does work…! ;-)
Well, it does take a modicum of citizen courage to insist upon it, CTut.
Didn’t some guy write about such a thing as you mention, this Common Sense, way back “when”, just before this country became a country?
Iceland leadeth the way!
DW
Yay, Iceland’s getting the attention it so richly deserves. Amazing how you have to really scramble to find stories on the successful approach Iceland took. You’d almost think somebody’s trying to hide it.
BTW, where’s Fractal?
not only that, you don’t have a bunch of empty houses ruining the housing market, getting run down due to lack of upkeep, and at the same time a bunch of people without anywhere to live, and all the problems that go with that.
got to keep up appearances of the brilliance and aptitude of the business class.
but to be fair there are just a few hundred thousand people in Iceland, one ethnicity, one religion, (guessing about those) and probably a lot easier for them to all pull one way.
Good thing Iceland doesn’t have oil.
Will Brian Williams be reporting on this tomorrow??? Rhetorical. The last thing the PTB want the people to know is the power of a hurled rock.
Good thing Iceland doesn’t have Democrats.
Does Iceland accept applications for asylum?
Touche !
The “banks have forgiven loans equivalent to 13 percent of gross domestic product,”
How much $$ is this?
Debt forgiveness at 110% of home values and the criminals are still in partian control.
This isn’t all good. They looked to the IMF for guidance and got snookered.
Nice to hear 200 are under indictment, lets hope they don’t ask for Eric Holder’s or Tim Geithner’s advice on weather to settle, or prosecute and claw back.
They have the other oil, from whales, whose meat they mostly sell to Japan and their own tourists.
They would hunt Americans if they thought they were intelligent and therefore needing to be slaughtered.
No Oil, No Democrats, lotsa blonds, and fish.
Look at what they did to protest at their presidents house.
Over 80% of them believe in Fairies. Apparently they didn’t get over-run by the Yahweh God Crusaders.
That was my first thought too.
My second thought was “Brrr!”
The “president’s house” link isn’t linking.
Plenty of hot springs nearby to warm up in…! ;-)
In the words of Cenk Uygur “Of Course!”
I would dearly love to see the US embrace the best parts of Scandinavian governance. With that said, the government of Iceland has to confront the diverse opinions and dispositions of its population, all what? 20 or 30 people?
I don’t credit the national political class in the US with anything better than being parasites; I don’t credit the plutocracy that operates the US as anything other than scoundrels; and managing the US successfully is probably harder than managing Iceland successfully. The 20 or 30 people who live in Iceland have a history of social solidarity and interdependence that does not exist in the multi-generational, ethnically and socially diverse and divergent population of 300 million in the US.
After 3 years of myself and many many others discussing how a principal write down actually increases the risk adjusted present value of the loans held by the bank, I, at least, am convinced that for political dogma reasons US Banks and the US Congress will not push principle write downs. They do not have the courage to go full out down the Icelandic path of saving only domestic bank account holders – with everyone else told to fight over the remaining assets – as it told foreign governments it would not pay for the cost of compensating retail depositors in foreign subsidiaries of Iceland’s banks – and then allowing its its currency, the krona, to drop in value more than halve as it imposed capital controls to prevent money leaving the country. Indeed they did not have the courage of just ordering simple principle write downs.
Which is why I welcome the 49 state settlement – it was the only path I saw to getting Banks to try – and therefore to finally see – that principal write downs work TO THE ADVANTAGE OF THE BANK.
Sorry, here is the link to the President’s house again.
@sixgill 20 or 30 people! Yeah, they’re all at the link above protesting :)
Argentina’s recovery is also worth noting. Below is a link to a good analysis.
“… the fact is that the partial default of two and half years standing has not prevented the economic recovery and export boom, nor has it provoked significant retaliation overseas. The coexistence of recovery and foreign trade surpluses with the “default” indicates that the consequences of default have not been as drastic as previously supposed by economists. In any event, it must be noted that the crisis itself was not related to any rebellion by creditors, but rather to a series of funds transfers and governmental neoliberal “adjustment” measures that asphyxiated productive activity.”
http://monthlyreview.org/2004/09/01/argentina-program-for-a-popular-economic-recovery
Argentina seems to have achieved what the American government is striving mightily toward — more for the rich, nothing for anyone else.
I know it’s probably more complex than this, but is what is happening in Europe today (and even the U.S.) more comparable to what happened in Europe after World War I or what happened in Europe after World War II?
Young Turks Drinking Game: Drink a shot or toke on a spliff every time Cenk hollers OF COURSE!!!