At a time when the government will release banks from their shameful conduct in the mortgage industry, they are also conducting stress tests to determine the financial health of those same banks. Given government policy that protects and coddles the banks, I would imagine the health to be shown as pretty darn good. And indeed, that’s the expectation:
In another milestone in the banking industry’s recovery from the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve this week will release the results of its latest stress tests, which are expected to show broadly improved balance sheets at most institutions.
The findings would be the latest of several signs of renewed strength in the economy, including the unemployment report last Friday that showed that more than 227,000 jobs were created in February.
For the financial sector, including traditional banks and Wall Street firms that were at the heart of the panic during the crisis, the recovery has been slow but steady, with some banks recovering much faster than others.
Still, while unpleasant surprises are possible, analysts are counting on the Fed to find banks largely healthy. That would stand in marked contrast with the holes, in the tens of billions of dollars, found on balance sheets in the first round of stress tests in 2009.
I think NYT reveals just a bit too much about how these stress tests get used to prop up Administration policies. The Fed will find banks “largely healthy” because they want to find them largely healthy. They want to keep confidence in the financial industry high, and they want something to point to so they can pronounce their prescriptions for the industry successful.
That doesn’t mean these stress tests reveal much of anything. In fact, the banks designed these stress tests themselves, we learned a year ago. It’s not so hard to believe they would pass them, given that. The banks did try to stop disclosure of the financial information in the stress tests, but that is mostly out of an abundance of caution. They don’t have a whole lot to worry about here.
The gift for banks at the end of this will be the ability to increase dividends. It’s expected that dividends will double in the coming year.
You cannot assess the success of the Administration’s financial policy from these stress tests. You have to take into account the extraordinary efforts in propping up these banks to bring them to the point where they can pass such a stress test.





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The measure of health should be the banks ability and inclination to function in a lawful manner while performing the essential function of banks in an economy — taking deposts on short-run basis and turning them into long run loans to support investments. The fact that these banks are still stealing money from the customers in every way they can tells you that the word “healthy” does not mean what you think it means.
We find what we expect to find.
ANY-body got a problem with that?
What may one say, DDay, except Banks a lot.
Much credit to you and may the bundled derivatives of your all a Round excellence in reporting, with powerfully illuminating honesty, the grandest daylight low-way robbery in history win you the dividends of a spv (special purpose vehicle) that you may travel with all proper “style” the highway of demonstrated conscience to the recognition you justly deserve?
Seriously, a Pulitzer is the least of it, for you are among the finest writers and reporters at FDL … and in the profession.
I hope that you shall, eventually, compile a book based on your posts, for that record and your genuinely prescient insights are desperately needed by a bamboozled, befuddled, and sorely abused public.
In the People’s History of Our Times, you and your prolific endeavors deserve a chapter of their own.
Words, simply, cannot adequately convey the worth and value and importance of what you present to the rest of us.
DW
What banks “should” be doing is sooooooo last century. The era we’re in now is something the likes of which I’ve never seen. I find myself re-reading the second paragraph of the Declaration of Independence rather often these days.
Bondo, spackle and the FASB…
Feels like the gawdawfullest Friday news-dump.
MF global exec to get paid bonuses while customers still out $1.2 billion dollars. It seems that in this day of electronic transfers the investigator is having a hard time tracking where the $1.2 billion went and needs to pay former MF executives bonuses to get their help. It also seems that AG’s investigating this case have found no criminal activity and for now it seems the money just vaporized. LOL
The reason for possibly allowing bonuses for MF Global chief operating officer, Bradley I. Abelow, finance chief, Henri J. Steenkamp, and general counsel, Laurie R. Ferber follows the same twisted logic pervading Wall Street: no one else can do the job as well.
These people are apparently so special that despite incompetence, negligence or potential malfeasance in diverting customers’ funds away from their rightful spots, their expertise is critical to the bankruptcy proceeding. In that realm, their ‘job performance’ will help Freeh “maximize value for creditors of the company”. Translation: it will ensure banks like JPM Chase keep their cut, since customers are not creditors. Again, plain wrong.
On Sunday, Freeh’s spokesperson released a statement saying the senators’ concerns were ‘noted’ and a final decision on the bonuses hadn’t been made. But to the extent that the money trails shrouding MF Global’s final moments remain more apparent to its former employees than external examiners, it’s likely the people involved in the wreckage, will be paid extra for sorting thru it.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-audacity-bonuses-mf-global
Love the snottiness of your title, DD; it’s purrrfect!
But not to be outdone by your wit, the Fed has to lead with:
Those wags, always findin’ new ways to make us laugh!
Well,I feel much better. That’s a load off my mind.
I’m not sure what “bank designed stress test” refers to.
The Fed stress test http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supervisory_Capital_Assessment_Program actually states in its 2009 report http://documents.nytimes.com/supervisory-capital-assessment-program-bank-stress-test-overview that it did not follow what the banks suggested was the correct way to do the tests – and that the bank may think the bank’s strength is stronger than that shown in the Fed test.
“bank designed stress test” sounds like a headline from Susan (Yves) ‘s site. However there are internal Fed docs on the 2009 report that suggest changes for the next test – so we can agree the first go round was not perfect – and I suspect there will be critics of whatever is the new procedure/method/formula/model.
In any case, thank you for the post – I am curious as to why some banks have recovered so well while others still hurt – and why Citi is expected show a major improvement.
I agree with you that “you cannot assess the success of the Administration’s financial policy from these stress tests. You have to take into account the extraordinary efforts in propping up these banks to bring them to the point where they can pass such a stress test.”
I think I remember hearing on the radio that somewhere around 200,000 jobs need to be added per month to account for population increase -just to keep even. Anybody know how close to being accurate that is? Or are those figures added in already? (Not sorry for any pessimism)
ECB banker speechless when asked to explain why Ireland has taken on European bank debt:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpGnX8dUabQ
The banker can’t say, “private profits, public risk.”
Huh, I just got an email and report from The Fox Chair Of The Fox Board.
The Henhouse is doing fine, eggs are up, maintenance is down due to lowered cost of feeding hens (fewer hens), and I’m not to worry.
http://www.pdfdownload.org/pdf2html/view_online.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.federalreserve.gov%2Fnewsevents%2Fpress%2Fbcreg%2Fbcreg20120313a1.pdf
or
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/bcreg20120313a1.pdf
the above is the result of the stress test if anyone wants to read/download it.