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I think you have to take what David Ignatius writes with a grain of salt sometimes. But I will note that the war fever over Iran’s nuclear program has subsided somewhat. And now, this:
President Obama has signaled Iran that the United States would accept an Iranian civilian nuclear program if Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei can back up his recent public claim that his nation “will never pursue nuclear weapons.”
This verbal message was sent through Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who visited Khamenei last week. A few days before traveling to Iran, Erdogan had held a two-hour meeting with Obama in Seoul, in which they discussed what Erdogan would tell the ayatollah about the nuclear issue and Syria.
Obama advised Erdogan that the Iranians should realize that time is running out for a peaceful settlement and that Tehran should take advantage of the current window for negotiations. Obama didn’t specify whether Iran would be allowed to enrich uranium domestically as part of the civilian program the United States would endorse. That delicate issue evidently would be left for the negotiations that are supposed to start April 13, at a venue yet to be decided.
Of course, Brazil and Turkey already got Iran to agree to a uranium swap, where it would get enriched in Russia and returned to Iran. Even though that basic framework matched with an offer that Western powers first brought up in negotiations in 2009, they rejected the Brazil/Turkey deal.
Khamenei has said repeatedly that Iran “will never pursue” nuclear weapons, and that doing so would violate Islamic law. The US and other countries have always been skeptical; but here, at least, Obama is allowing Khamenei to be as good as his word.
The problem, of course, will come with verification, as well as the details. But I think this is a small breakthrough. Before, even the presence of a civilian nuclear energy program was seen as “evidence” of a weapons program. Now this signal suggests that Iran would be allowed to carry that civilian nuclear energy program, which is their right under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It’s not saying much that Iran would be “allowed” to so something that they have the perfect right to do. But it’s actually an advance, at least rhetorically.
Ignatius adds that promised negotiations between Iran and the West have stalled on a meeting place. But sometimes the back channel will tell you more than what happens in public.
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In other words, Obama’s finally realized what no other US president up to now has realized: that the Likud/Kadima warmongers currently running Israel have no intention of attacking Iran; they just wanted to stampede the US into doing so for them.
Bibi and Company know full well that an Israeli-launched attack on Iran, for any reason or none, would cause an immediate and unpleasant response from Israel’s neighbors near and far; but since they’ve sold Iran as the latest in a long line of fetish-villains, currently as a way to distract from the fact that economic conditions for Israelis are a lot worse off than generally admitted, they see calling for the destruction of Iran as a cheap (for them) way of distracting the huddled masses at home as well as doing their Republican friends in the US a big favor by trying to drive a wedge between American Jews and the Democratic Party (and its standard-bearer Obama).
This will sound like an odd thing to say for a pro-Israeli Jew (not pro-Likud, but pro-Israeli), but I think Iran would have to be daft not to want to get nuclear weapons. For oil-rich nations in the Middle East, they’re the only sure amulet for warding off a military attack by the U.S. or its proxies.
If there’s one thing we can say for certain, Obama absolutely, positively needs to delay the attack on Iran until after the election. Beyond that, the administration’s “strategic ambiguity” is very ambiguous indeed. Their multiplicitous messaging essentially means no one can believe anything… until something actually happens, whether for good or ill.
So this could be a hopeful sign. But it’s more likely, given past performance issues, that this is a head-fake intended to simply assuage certain interests until after the election. HRCs continuous hostility in all this–and she’s the Chief Diplomat of the US–has to be taken into consideration here.
In the face of multiple comm strategies, one should never make any assumptions about anything. We simply cannot know the administration’s intent at this point. And this is because they flatly refuse to be clear about any of it.
There are times when making blithe assumptions about anything can lead to a great deal of misinformation.
Tehran Times, Apr 8, 2012
Turkish envoy denies Erdogan conveyed Obama’s message to Supreme Leader
TEHRAN – Turkish Ambassador to Iran Umit Yardim has dismissed news reports that Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan conveyed U.S. President Barack Obama’s message to Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei during a meeting he held with the Leader on March 29.
The Israeli website DEBKAfile reported on April 7 that after a two-hour, 15-minute conversation with Obama in Seoul on March 25, Erdogan undertook to fly to Tehran and personally hand Obama’s six-point message to Ayatollah Khamenei.
It said that the note, which laid out the American position for the nuclear talks between Iran and six world powers that were scheduled to open in Istanbul on April 13, was delivered on March 29.
Washington Post also reported on April 6 that Obama has signaled Iran that Washington would accept an Iranian civilian nuclear program if Ayatollah Khamenei can back up his recent public statement that his nation “will never pursue nuclear weapons.” (end Tehran Times)
Here’s hoping this works out.
Brazil got an agreement in 2010 for 2640 pounds of 5% enriched uranium to be shipped out of Iran – but estimates that Iran has many many tons of such 5% enriched uranium, and that the current 20% enrichment program already exceeds the ability of their research reactor to use it all up for the next 50 years -
So what is the point of Iran’s 2640 pounds of 5% enriched U238 moving out of country – it is a tiny part of their supply and they do not need the return of 20% enriched uranium. Plus the international rules for inspections are not being followed currently in Iran. The “Of course, Brazil and Turkey already got Iran to agree to a uranium swap, where it would get enriched in Russia and returned to Iran. Even though that basic framework matched with an offer that Western powers first brought up in negotiations in 2009, they rejected the Brazil/Turkey deal.” implies their is no problem with Iran – and that is incorrect. Indeed as worded the deal allows Iran to get 20% enriched material back for nothing – because who does the enrichment and how that material relates to the material shipped from Iran not being spelled out, Iran can demand and get the 2640 pounds of 5% enriched U238 back in addition to keeping the 20% enriched that was supplied in return for that 2640 pounds. The sloppy wording is not a major point but it does expose the fact that no one considered the agreement to be more than a political statement.
That said, it is well past the time when the US should use Turkey to get an agreement on allowing a peaceful nuke program in Iran – with inspections. Of course Iran must be allowed to do the complete cycle – including enrichment taking place inside Iran – since with inspections such enrichment is not a problem.
According to the IAEA report of 18 Feb 2010, Iran had a total production on 29 Jan 2010 of 2065 kg (4543 lb) of UF6 enriched up to 5% U-235 since production began in February 2007. So 2640 lb would have been over a half of their stock, not a tiny part.
The Brazil-Turkey deal was rejected by Iran two years ago because the US/UN proceeded with sanctions on Israel’s demand.
Iran already has a peaceful nuke program with inspections.
Dec 3, 2010
“We told them that they are entitled to the peaceful use of civil nuclear energy,” [Clinton] said.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-11917186
It’s the US/Israel concocted “nuclear weapon ambitions” that is touted as this fake “crisis.” We’ll have a war on ambitions, a first.
The U.S. is setting impossible terms, in my view.
U.S. Defines Its Demands for New Round of Talks With Iran
By DAVID E. SANGER and STEVEN ERLANGER
Published: April 7, 2012
WASHINGTON — The Obama administration and its European allies plan to open new negotiations with Iran by demanding the immediate closing and ultimate dismantling of a recently completed nuclear facility deep under a mountain, according to American and European diplomats.[this is Fordo, near Qom, 90 meters deep under rock and impervious to US/Israel aerial attack]
They are also calling for a halt in the production of uranium fuel that is considered just a few steps from bomb grade [i.e. 20% U235 -- bombs require 95%], and the shipment of existing stockpiles of that fuel out of the country, the diplomats said.
That negotiating position will be the opening move in what President Obama has called Iran’s “last chance” to resolve its nuclear confrontation with the United Nations and the West diplomatically.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/08/world/middleeast/us-defines-its-demands-for-new-round-of-talks-with-iran.html?_r=1
The last chance to resolve its nuclear confrontation!
Actually, Iran has complied with all its treaty obligations and isn’t confronting any country..
Also in the Middle east is Israel, with no treaty, no UN inspectors allowed, and 200 nukes — which is what the Arabs who actually live in the area fear and not Iran, which doesn’t have nukes.
Now our best hope is for a strong sign from General Dempsey and/or General Mattis that Kid Obama is acting crazy. The Persians can sink ships and kill Americans if attacked, and who can blame them. I wouldn’t.
This should bring down oil prices in advance of the election.
Turkey has more of a stake than the US in whether Iran gets nuclear weapons. Turkey is a US ally in NATO and can invoke Section 5 if attacked. Turkey has diplomatic relations directly with Iran, and the US doesn’t. It would have been surprising if Turkey had not opened a back-channel for negotiations.
If this agreement can be reached, can the next step be renormalization of relations between the US and Iran. (I’m not sure which is the most reticent about renormalization–the one that remembers 1954 or the one that remembers 1979.)
It’s hard to tell before negotiations begin where the US’s bottom line is (or Iran’s for that matters). Both will be stating their opening positions.
The only way to change the attitude toward Israel is to dramatically change the composition of Congress.
The real issue relative to the Middle East is that the US (and NATO’s) militaries run on oil-based fuels. Seizing and holding the Middle East is the counterpart of Admiral Mahan’s seizing and holding Pacific Islands as coaling stations when the US Navy was powered by coal. The emphasis on reopening North America for drilling has to do with the fact that the US is no longer assured of controlling Middle Eastern oil as a result of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars bleeding the US financially even before the bankers finished the job.
The Madman Theory produces a lot of mad(wo)men. Dead ones too.
Nope. Not the only way. Not even the way.
Current U.S. foreign policy is failing in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq and Syria. Way to go. Good thing we have the despotic Gulf states on our side, and of course Israel.
Anyhow, this is America’s Pacific Century. Clinton, November 2011: “The future of politics will be decided in Asia, not Afghanistan or Iraq, and the United States will be right at the center of the action.” So the war with Iran is just a sidelight to some really important activities.