Socialist candidate Francois Hollande has won the French Presidential election, defeating incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy, yet another political victim of the Eurozone crisis.
After the early exit polls showed a 52-48 victory for Hollande, Sarkozy conceded defeat and called Hollande to wish him luck running the country. Hollande had won the first round of the elections two weeks ago, the first time an incumbent had lost the first round of the French Presidential elections. The success of far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, who garnered 20% of the vote in the first round, gave Sarkozy a glimmer of hope that he could prevail in round two, and he in particular tried to appeal to Le Pen’s voters by veering right on immigration. But Le Pen’s voters largely lodged a protest vote against European economic measures, which held close association with Sarkozy. Le Pen never endorsed Sarkozy, while far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon and centrist candidate Francois Bayrou both endorsed Hollande.
The election has implications for Europe. In truth, Sarkozy and Hollande did not differ all that much on budgetary policy – both of their proposed budgets balanced in the same year, 2017. But Hollande said he would attempt to stimulate growth early on, while raising taxes on the rich afterward. And more important, Hollande vowed to reassess the EU fiscal pact, which demanded a specific budget target for each member country. With many of those countries in recession, this pact put austerity on auto-pilot and would almost assure a long period of unnecessary suffering in countries like Spain and Italy and Greece. It’s almost for them that the Hollande election holds more hope of a true change. Germany may need to rethink their austerity-driven policies as Angela Merkel’s major partner, Sarkozy, vanishes from the scene.
This was reinforced by the outcome of Greek elections today, where the major parties took a beating, and parties opposed to the austerity program in place moved to the fore.
The latest figures showed New Democracy leading with between 19 – 20.5% of the vote, followed by the radical leftist party, Syriza, with as much as 17% and socialist party Pasok with between 13 – 14 %. And for the first time since the collapse of military rule, ultra-nationalists were also set to enter parliament with polls showing the neo-Nazi Chrysi Avgi (Golden Dawn) capturing as much as 8%.
With the nation wrestling its worst crisis in modern times, the big winner appeared to be Syriza, which had campaigned ardently against austerity and was poised to become the second biggest party in Athens’s 300-seat House.
So when actual European citizens had a chance to make themselves heard today, they opted against the status quo, against austerity and for anyone who would tell them that there was another way. Change is not assured, however. European leaders basically engaged in a silent coup, overthrowing governments in Greece and Italy with technocrats that installed their programs. The Greek situation is muddled and unclear, and Hollande, whose actual policies are only mildly to the left of Sarkozy’s, may not follow through on his plans to reopen the fiscal pact and pressure German and European Central Bank leadership. But the conversation has changed in Europe away from austerity and toward growth – even the ECB’s Mario Draghi talked up growth in their last meeting. And Hollande’s success has already accomplished that.





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Welcome back !
“So when actual European citizens had a chance to make themselves heard today”; true and I don’t think most U.S. citizens have any clue how the EU has subverted democracy in the nations of Europe.
Welcome home. We missed you!
bonjour Dave.
comment allez vous? bienvenue.
Happy to see you’re back, David. And on the day when Europeans are beginning to signal their deep discontent with Austerity, too. Mighty fine!
> In truth, Sarkozy and Hollande did not differ all that much
> on budgetary policy
What great news!
I hope that the French don’t end up with Hollande the way we ended up with Obama. If Hollande puts a knife in the back of the people who voted for him the way Obama has to his base here then today will end up being a bitter day for France. Odds are that’s exactly what will happen. Socialists usually have the backbones of jellyfish.
Hollande suggests stimulating growth, raising taxes on the wealthy, and putting “austerity moves” in the trashcan. Wow, is anybody on this side of the pond watching what just went down today in France and Greece?
Any bets on the Stock Market taking a hit on Monday morning trading?
Questions, questions, we need answers…
I guess the folks in France and Greece have had enough and said so today.
Good for them!
Thanks for the post David and welcome back!
The 1% installed one of their men in France.
The labels, the talk, the fake political theater… means nothing.
I think Hollande will encounter rising expectations early on now that he’s responsible.
He needs to make it clear the fiscal pact won’t stand, as is, and get busy with a minimum of more reassessing (code for kicking the can yet again, no?)
EUR/USD printing at 1.2974 (breaking 1.30 for the first time in a while).
Also a shakeup in elections in Germany:
Merkel’s Party Suffers Setback
Interestingly, the Pirate Party won 8% which gets them some seats.
Article on them here. They seem like a political party made of bloggers! Might be interesting to see how they progress.
I remember the gut fear there was about the prospect of Mitterand. He turned out to be just a middle roader who saw where to bag enough votes — tell ‘em what they want to hear, but then, . . .
VIVA LA FRANCE….Good . So much for Austerity. Sarkosy was making cuts for everyone but the wealthy. Sound familiar?? France was starting to look like us. But those Europeans have more guts then we do. No wonder they don’t like us.
Of course Hollande is weak tea, so prepare for disappointment. But he’s not the villain Barack Obama is.
Unlike U.S. ,the French have a few threads of democracy to defend and are far more politically aware than we.In fact ,the only visible voices whom I’ve heard with a conceptual Understanding of the G-29 austerity racket are Mike Hudson ,Bill Black and maybe several others in the MMT school .Let’s be honest .the majority of us are ignorant and stupid humps who still buy into the two-party scam .
The election of the first post-WWII European Nazi officials should bolster the argument the FDL is trying to make:
Passing the football back and forth between the center and the right leads to public frustration and extremism.
B. Hussein Obama has certainly fueled extremism in America; Rmoney would be even worse once he betrays the populist right on just about everything and governs strictly for the top .01%.
For the record, it was hyperinflation (a form of austerity) that led to the Nazis taking over Germany – because after decades of post WWI Keynesianism, Europeans weren’t “all dead”.
Look up Hollande’s views on foreign policy. He’s just as bad on Syria and Iran as Sarkozy was, this is just changing the medicine that France has to take to try to get out of the current deathtrap that is the global spending tsunami. The question is how much Hollande is really willing to stick in his heels on the EU fiscal pact. Otherwise the hot potato has been thrown back to Greece, to see if they form a government or not…
Potentially an excellent development if Hollande sticks to his guns and actually has the audacity to represent the country’s and the French people’s best interests instead of the international oligarch’s.
Z
When we had a socialist Mayor in Milwaukee, WI in the 50-60′s we grew greater then any previous or present office holder in the city! We got the best parks, transportation, shared goals to make this city great!
Aloha, DDay, I’m delighted to see that you’re home safe and sound…! *g*
Any TSA horror stories…? ;-)
The issue is there that they have a vast amount of parties. We only have two parties that are bought and paid for by the “Oligarchy”.
The French have alternatives. If Hollande “stabs the left in the back” you can bet they will turn to Melenchon, who is even further to the left. Now that the supposed “left” in America has been stabbed in the back by Mr. Bipartisan who do they turn to? It’s really both humorous and curious. Using the French elections as a comparison the U.S. electorate is given the choice of Obama, the Sarkozy figure, and Romney, the LePen figure. Yeah, some real choice there.
Since you’re obviously not a student of history let me give you a brief lesson. Socialists and Communists made up the “backbone” of the resistance against the forces of fascism during WWII.
Exactly, chaeronea…! Hollande’s FP tincture is just as weak as his economic tea…! 8-(
Americans clearly are the ones lacking “backbone.”
Right..and this needs to change here too.
How u going to do that with the electoral system?
What’s under-reported by our Lame-Stream Media is the fact there’s other key elections going on in the World too… Such as in Iran; Iran election results cause major setback for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad… And, even in Syria; Syrians Vote for Parliament in Polls Opposition Rejects… Which I would deem counter-productive for the Syrian Opposition, when Constitutional Reforms are on the national ballot, however weak they maybe…! 8-(
Good luck Francois Hollande!
Hey after @16 are we on the same page when noting the root cause of WW2 hyperinflation was unpayable debt due to French reparations claims ? ?Wall St’ elephant bucks view our debt as hyperinflation on account ,as evidenced in currency debasement and plays on precious metals and other hard assets .
A t least this is a shot across the bow of the neo liberals in Europe and even here.
Hola CT, glad I’m not talking to the wall. Did you perchance look up the German results from today as well? It looks like a PASOK/new democracy majority but perhaps as little as 1-2 seats might have happened, but this sort of thing is obviously contested =P Tomorrow/tonight late in the US will begin the news of who can play kingmaker, but we are in for some turmoil!
The Germans actually beat back the inflation, I think. What brought the nazis into power was the austerity that followed it.
PSH, POSH silly polls messing with our psy-ops in Syria…. I mean, what? (snark)
That doesn’t sound right to me.
Actually no, the republic actually got saved by the Dawes Plan, which went south in 1929 for some reason when capital got called back into the states. The nazis used non-interest currency to inject capital into their economy to build up industry, infrastructure and weapons. Came in handy later on.
I think it is the same thing. The nazis built up the economy.
although I’m sorry, I should add the original bouts of hyperinflation did cause pain, but where saved the first time by Weimar republic actions with some minimal help from US interests. You see, without a functional German economy, to pay back the war debts from the great war, the French and British wouldn’t have had surplus to pay back…. The Americans?… Oh I see what you did there.
*heh* I enjoyed the fact that the Pirate Party secured a seat in the Bundestag…! And, Merkel’s CDU lost seats…! ;-)
Don’t forget what some have dubbed “The Maple Spring” Not a peep from US media.
When I read that today I’m pretty sure I inhaled coffee for a second, I really hope whoever they send to the seat wears an absurd hat to all assemblies! Or something of the sort. But yeah, the real victory was the blow to FDP, but CDU held up pretty well, we’ll have to see this summer how Merkel’s grip holds.
They did differ in one big way: One actually wants to tax the rich.
If only…….
*heh* From one Neo-Lib to another… Obama congratulates Hollande on France election win…
Unlike Obama, Hollande is a known quantity. He is not a closet conservative, bit more like Kerry in being totally conventional. The French understand that and will cut him some slack. The last Socialist President was also conservative, and in his early career Mitterand would have run on the right, but Degaulle couldn’t stand him because of his footsying with Vichy, leaving Mitterand no choice but to make his career on the left.
Even after the negative reaction over this? I don’t think anyone was wondering who team Obama was hopeful to win in France!
With Sarkozy adopting the anti-democratic positions of LePen following the run-off, the contest became a referendum on French democracy. So the victory of Hollande was an affirmation of that democracy. (In contrast to the U.S., where we are losing, or have already lost, our democracy).
I imagine Hollande’s first test of his campaign rhetoric will be when he goes to the NATO summit this month – he advocated that all French troops leave Afghanistan by the end of 2012. Ya think O will help him see the light? ; )
Somehow, the citizens of Greece think they will continue to find a sucker to loan them the shortfall between revenue and spending.
With abandonment of austerity and the 50% cut already to lenders, who in their right mind would loan them anything? Only charity keeps them going.
They could disavow all loans, but then, for sure no one would lend anything to them. Then, they would have to make sure tax revenue equaled spending.
They are like the family that has all their credit cards cut off due to not paying and then are surprised that they can’t live the high life anymore.
Of course, they could subscribe to Krugman’s theory and keep borrowing and try to continue the party. But, then, they’d have to find someone willing loan them money in spite of a policy that only makes them more risky.
Companies sometimes try this. Times go bad, they try to borrow money on the hope they can turn it around and finally fall flat on their face.
As Madoff found, sometimes the money just simply runs out and you have to face the consequences–sell the house, cause your friends to go belly up, and wind up at the very bottom.
Sometimes, it takes a long time, but, eventually, it catches up.
This is true. Somehow, people no longer like people, who fancy themselves brilliant, telling them what to do.
The Democracy of the intelligencia is fading.
Some founding fathers thought this too; the public is just too dumb to trust with governing themselves. That’s why they had Senators appointed.
*wowsers* That totally Rawks, M’dear…! ;-)
(btw, I’m hosting lln tonite!)
*heh* From that JP article…
Obama noted that he will welcome Hollande to the presidential retreat at Camp David in Maryland for the G-8 Summit and to Chicago for the NATO Summit. Both events are this month.
Obama proposed that they meet beforehand at the White House.
Game On…! ;-)
Shhhh…do you hear someone sobbing? It might be Dominique Strauss-Kahn. Remember he was leading Hollande in their run for the nomination to represent the Socialist and the Radical Left Party last year before he was arrested for assaulting the hotel maid in NYC.
Didn’t Argentina tell their creditors to take a hike?
One of them is sure to convert the other to his brand of neo liberalism.
This is one of the most preposterous statements I’ve read on FDL for a long time.
DSK was still weak gruel, billyc…! He was the former Managing Director of the IMF, afterall…! 8-(
*heh* Most indubitably…! ;-)
You haven’t been reading very long I guess.
Check it out. The math never adds up in the long run. The entire system depends on people continuing to be suckers. Eventually, they decide they don’t want to.
Seriously, wouldn’t greece be better off if they left the euro?
True dat. I was thinking how cruel the fates can be for men like DSK, who think they’re going to be ruling the free world but can’t control their libido.
*heh* I just adore what Iceland did too…! ;-)
Sounds like someone who cares about people. That would never be allowed in this country.
I saw a few people complaining about his image being used from Hollande’s side, it sends a message even with a weak embassy response… I may need to stay in tonight if you’re hosting LLN! =P
It would be nice, for a change of pace, if that very same sentiment didn’t transverse so many national boundaries these daze…! 8-(
From Bloomberg on greek elections. foolish man. seems he doesn’t like austerity. That won’t go over big with the PTB.
They would, the problem is that it would really hurt the European banking system. The new language of the bailout from the EU actually outlaws any default by Greece on the new debt…. They were trying to lock them into a corner of choosing the financing, or going cold turkey and getting the drachma back. A devalued drachma would create a tourism and export boom, undercutting other countries in the Eurozone, while damaging their banks, and the European Central Bank. It would be a catastrophe for the current system, not for the Greek people.
Just wait until Spain manages to lose more of its foreign investments in South America and/or someone forces them to revalue their housing bubble. Rajoy already has proven he’ll play by his own rules, Merkel will not be pleased if the beatings do not improve morale and are discontinued!
The Spaniards are fuming over all their SA losses in Argentina, and, elsewhere on the Continent, and, we’re still refusing to recognize the huge BRIC(s) headed for our Western, plate-glass, Front Window…! 8-(
Madame Hillary is trying to staunch the blood loss in India today; Hillary Clinton likely to pressure India to cut Iranian oil import… Continuing Foggy Bottom’s full-court press on Iran…! 8-(
I don’t understand how falklands 2.0 hasn’t started yet! You put it well, there is a BRIC headed our way, and its not made of gold…. Those bricks are sitting in the BRICs basement.
Good luck to her, I’m pretty sure with our waffling with no real consequence or strategy (at least from what I can see, maybe its different up a few paygrades) with the India-Pakistan relations. The party line of supporting the Afghan war at least makes sense, but with the fuming Pakistanis over drones and sovereignty, perhaps Clinton is finally realizing how little we have to bargain with relating to India, short of pulling out.
I’m not too thrilled (he’s considered rather tame and to the right within that party), but mildly happy. Will be an interesting week/month/year.
Then it’s war !!!!
The irony is that Madame Hillary is shilling for Wal-Mart, just like her old Arkansaw daze…! ;-)
Trust me, there’s a quote from Merkel last summer where she say’s that it will be said to see the end of 50 years of peace in Europe over the Greeks not playing ball. It always seems like hyperbole, until the guns of August sound… Only this time they will be fired along the cables that connect the international credit markets.
Would it be presumptuous of me to expect Monsanto to be represented as well as wally world in those pleas for new material for the USA to wealth pump into our system? =P
The third time in a hundred years and this time no bullets?
Pretty much, the pensioner who lost his retirement thanks to the stealing of his government basically said, he’d pick up a gun and fight… If there was someone to physically fight. So instead he ended his burden on his family. Tragic, in the full sense of the word.
Its my hope that people remember they will be rewarded for resisting the temptations to blame the other, and remember that the system has used cheap money, and the promise of constant growth to rot the will of everyone from within. If you look at the election results out of Greece, the full on Nazi party won something like 8%. I’m probably too optimistic about the human race.
Actually that’s pretty accurate. Greece has already defaulted, would you lend them money?
Yes, and were only rescued by Chavez loaning to them and the fact they had reserves of 47 billion. Greece has neither.
Yes, it’d be better if they didn’t burden anyone but themselves with their problems.
The Greeks must leave the euro if they wish to regain their nationhood ,which requires having a reserve currency .Moreover , they better do it soon ,before the bankster thugs use austerity to loot their assets and hence the static value on which the drachma could leverage real wealth in the credit markets .The euro was structured to collapse .
Too late, the last bailout gave the creditors of Greece the rights to their gold, and removed their legal right to default. I don’t mean to be rude, but this is happening with, or without everyone paying attention.
Ahhh, but its selective default! You see, that means we pretend this whole dust up never happened…. Until May 15th =P (snark)
So where’s the CDS’s on that Greek ‘default’, shooter…? Once again, you’re shooting out yer rectum sphincter…! 8-(
BACK OFF CT I’m feeding him tonight! =P The ISDA’s decision is a bit of hilarity though, isn’t it? The product is totally discredited, financial concoctions still sell and are being used to “manage” risk. We never learn, do we?
Interesting development. Well all the best to the good citizens of France, and let’s see what Hollande does. Won’t hold my breath but will anticipate some changes for the better.
Do the French have true courage by supporting Allande in the Parliamentary elections that will allow him to carry out the goals outlined in the campaign? Finally, a country has the balls to see austerity is not the solution. Without the Parliament, it will go nowhere but lets keep our fingers crossed. With the world in the hands of the Global Corporations, we need the prople to speak out from one nation to another!
Hey chae@85, I don’t mean to be rude either ,but the legal claims to which you refer don’t mean squat if they default .Not everyone can understand cause and effect .I think Greece would have a good case to make that credit was given to banking elites in a recycling scheme from which the money covered bundesbank exposures and further pummeled Greece into debt peonage with this fraud .However ,this is not about case outcome ,just stiff these thugs as Argentina did to the IMF loan sharks .It’s far better to regain sovereignty,keep the assets and at then litigate some lawsuits l,as desired , decades later .I don’t mean to be condescending but you do understand that having the power to trade goods is far more important than attracting capital by becoming the next Vietnam ? y
that has no hope in hell – india is picking up insurance liabilities that lloyds from london would have handled before sanctions
her other quest, to open up the retail market for walmart, has already been declared a no go
so, a trip to achieve nothing more than unnecessary harmful carbon emissions