Germany’s Angela Merkel dismissed newly elected French President Francois Hollande’s call to renegotiate the European fiscal pact to include growth measures rather than merely budget constraints.
Ms. Merkel and her government, fearful of popular resistance in Germany, have made clear in recent weeks that they won’t soften their austerity demands embodied in a fiscal pact, a point the German leader reiterated on Monday.
“We in Germany, and me personally, are of the opinion that the fiscal pact is nonnegotiable,” Ms. Merkel told reporters at her party’s headquarters in Berlin. “I consider the fiscal pact to be right and I think there is a basic process in Europe that we agree that after elections, whether in big countries or little countries, we cannot just put everything up for discussion that was negotiated previously.”
Merkel did promise to “work together” with Hollande, but this initial statement shows precisely the opposite. Expect a meeting in the next two weeks.
Merkel also said that if they allowed Hollande to reopen the fiscal pact, they feared other countries would attempt a renegotiation of their deals, in particular the Greek rescue plan. But Merkel had better prepare herself for this. There’s no telling what kind of government will come out of Greece, but it will probably not have the same compliant stance toward the EU-IMF-ECB troika that it had when it agreed to the bailout. Though Merkel wants to deny reality, this will weaken the coalition and force potential change to the rescue package.
Even the mainstream parties in Greece have publicly called for a renegotiation. And there are more renegotiations on the horizon. Local elections in Italy scored victories for left-wing and protest parties, with anti-austerity candidates winning big up and down the map. Comedian Beppe Grillo has a protest party that reached the run-off in Parma, in Northern Italy. National elections next year in Italy could bring a similar outcome.
Over the next year, we could see a coalition form for Hollande of European countries opposed to austerity, desiring more than lip service on economic growth, like a real program to provide it. Brad Plumer has some of the options being bandied about. Either Merkel and the European Central Bank relent on one of the first five – higher inflation, fiscal stimulus from the richer countries, an expanded bailout fund, Eurobonds, or a funding of a European Investment Bank to allow for job creation projects – or we’re going to get to the sixth, where countries begin to drop out of the euro.





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People are beginning to wise up. The inevitable death march of the EURO has begun. In the end it will be the curreny of only Germany much like the old deutch MARK.
The examples of Argentina and Iceland will come more and more to the fore. My opinion–F### the big bankers.As I see it, we had an opportunity to rid ourselves of the big bank/wall street scum a few years ago and blew it. Next time will be the last time.
Welcome back David. Hope you had a restful and interesting time. Re Hollande, don’t underestimate his ability to sell out and line up with Merkel after getting a miniscule EIB program on infrastructure. Will he line up with her to put the knife into Greece? Re Greece itself, now we’ll see a brutal campaign of propaganda terror and intimidation to try and get the electorate to vote for the austerity parties in the elections next month. If Syriza comes in first, then watch for the Allende option.
Well, that was a slapdown from Merkel. It’s almost a, “I hear what you say, and don’t care to hear any more.”
She does have a problem with the German electorate, which retires at some five years older than the French do. So, how is any solution to the fiscal pact to get pried away from Merkel’s hands? Can Hollande simply disavow/withdraw assuming he wins enough support in the parliament?
Hoping for #6. I didn’t forecast at the time that it wouldn’t last, I just “wondered” how long it would last. It seemed like a good idea at the time but European countries have too much separate history. I did think that the treaties were too inflexible to stand up to stress, which is when you need flexibility the most. Et voila.
As some have said, Hollande will probably end up toeing the line, but Merkel’s reaction and Schaeuble’s “no take backs” comment on the EU pact only make this situation worse. The Irish hate it, considering it makes a mockery of all of their suffering to follow the rules, the Dutch don’t want to hit their targets for it, the Spanish are openly flaunting their targets, need I go on? If the German leadership wants to remain tone deaf, they’ll just hasten the breakup of the Eurozone, but they’ll insist the whole time it wasn’t their fault.
Yes,the treaties are too inflexible. They made a pact to commit mutual suicide and by gawd,they are going to stick to it.
Tone deaf ain’t the half of it. History of Europe being forced by Germany to do something is not sweet.
Why can’t they increase taxes on the wealthy and use the money to help the economy?
U.S. wildly waving its hand. Can we join? Can we join?
That cuts both ways and you know it, the “Debts are debts” meme was taught to the Germans the hard way in a specific episode known as the Great War. Obviously Germany was entirely responsible and should pay back the Brits and French and ENJOY IT TOO. Or something. Worked out great for everyone 21 years later, obviously.
On my desk I have a book by Otmar Issing entitled The Birth of the Euro, which came out in 2008 at a time when the Euro seemed all-conquering. Issing was on the first board of governors of the ECB and seems fairly intelligent and basically decent. But the message comes out strong and clear that they ‘believed’ that the Euro would force ‘convergence’ on peripheral countries like Greece and ‘slacker’ countries like Italy and Spain. It is clear from the book that they had no idea exactly how this was supposed to happen. It is sort of like, ‘if my grandmother had wheels, she’d be an omnibus’, which is the kind of thing that passes for analysis at places like the ECB, the Fed, the NYT, WaPo and the Washington Concensus.
Give me some of those wheels!
I think any of them could leave the euro, but that would also cause severe disruption and turmoil. There are solutions but these asses won’t take them.
Who are you talking about? Hollande raising taxes on the French elite? They are already on route to London, Financial Times did a fun piece on that. Hollande was just a referendum on Sarkozy with a touch of social spending. Not much will change.
Merkel wants subservient Vichy French collaborators, not an indepedent France.
That would be truly insane. Whoever says that you know they are insane?
You wonder if they were willfully ignorant, or just had no idea the imbalances running would come back to bit them. One of the only things Greece has been paying for without any interruptions has been military equipment from stronger economies in the Eurozone (read, Germany, France) because of the problematic relationship with Turkey. It gives lending the rope to hang yourself a whole new meaning.
Question does the book say who put the Euro idea down on paper because some time back I read it was the same person that did ronnie-ray-gunne trinkle down theory and we all know how well that worked.
Thanks.
Yes, but……. They don’t have too many options other than more of the same austerity and drepression. When does the revolution start?
When you think about it, austerity makes sense for the affluent .
“Amid the news headlines marking the 20th anniversary of German reunification, the country quietly finished paying the last of its debt stemming from reparations imposed by the Versailles Peace Treaty more than 92 years ago.”
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2010/1004/Germany-finishes-paying-WWI-reparations-ending-century-of-guilt
You can’t make lazy people industrious by telling them to work harder.
[Basil Fawlty] Don’t mention the war!
Yeah, but what does Congress have to do with this?
Several years ago when East and West Germany were reunited a question arose as to whether th capital of Germany should be Berlin or Bonn. An election was held to decide if it would be Berlin or Bonn.
Can we starve them, just a little?
Ironically its more of a taxation and bad politician problem. If you looked at hours work data going back a few years Greeks actually worked more hours a week than many of their European peers, the “lazy workers” meme is a bit tired.
Yeah, debts are debts. My original point was more that Germany had all of the blame put on it for a breakdown in the international system, and the massive resource drain of the war would have caused even more devastation, if someone wasn’t forced to pay. The irony was that at the time, Britain and France owed the U.S. their war debts, so we ended up rescuing Germany’s finances… Twice, in order to get our money paid back. Everything worked out until the Dawes plan failed miserably during the 1929 market crash. Go figure.
Pshaw. Contracts, treaties, laws, just empty words written on pieces of paper or in cyberspace. Have little meaning in the real world. If you don’t believe me, just as W & O.
A write-in won: Paris.
The only meaning they really have is some equation balancing the amount of legal spending you can lever off of the words that are written. If the legal society is morally bankrupt, you get W & O and no justice. If you’re Germany, trying to keep the EU together so you can continue to profit massively, you pay back your ww1 debt so that the Greeks can’t complain about it, but you do it quietly, without fanfare.
The Greeks raised the issue of war reparations again last summer during the middle of this. It’s always easy to borrow and then feign outrage. The blame falls both on the Lender, and the Borrower, but when the legal avenue fails we will resort to warfare.
This.
The Europeans are missing the problem. The underlying problem is the imbalance in trade. That’s where all the money went, and why the Greeks don’t have it now, and why the Greek economy is now a shambles. That is the continuing reason the situation keeps worsening. And why the Europeans have no real solution, and no timetable for the problem’s resolution.
To solve the trade imbalance, they should phase in Warren Buffet’s idea of import certificates.
The borrower is servant to the lender.
Best not to get into debt in the first place.
That’s a really wonky workaround. Going back to the Drachma and exiting the Eurozone would cause a recession in their economy, but they would be able to devalue their currency to make their agricultural exports, and tourism very ideal. The problem would be what the other countries in the Eurozone would be forced to do to them in response. Also trying to find bridge loans to keep their country running in some way until they are able to restart their economy. Nobody in Europe would be happy to deal with them, but Greece also has access to resources, I’m sure the Russians or Chinese, or other groups with money would be more than happy to give some credit for the right price. But hey, it’s easier to just go for the status quo right? It’s not like people aren’t starving to death in the streets of Athens.
Exactly.
Remember “shared sacrifice”?
The run up to the Allende option has already begun – CNBC has a new CIA SCRIPT that they are pushing that says Syriza is not “left” but is really communist – and indeed mocking those that disagree by pointing out some members of Syriza were formerly Communist Party members. It would be amusing if the next round of elections votes in Greece’s Communist KKE party, or at least increases their support from 8.5% of the popular vote and 26 seats in Parliament (out of a 300 seat Parliament).
I’m not sure how many people are starving to death on the streets of Athens. I think they commit suicide before they fully starve.
“Shared Sacrifice” is a meme that ought to be brought back and used to mean the rich need to make some sacrifices too. Not the ritual kind, though.
I’m not a local, from what I can tell though, their society is currently wracked with the pain of families trying their hardest to hold together, and the spiral of destruction continues. With a situation like that, it’ll only be a matter of time before they start aiming guns at more than just themselves.
The guy in the cube next to me actually worked more hours a week than I did. He was still a lazy worker who never got anything done.
I agree – as far as I can tell the game was to get a lower valued currency for German exports, and to use stimulus in Germany to keep the economy going in any downturn but to not allow stimulus elsewhere so as to again protect that low export currency (I liked the German response to a downturn of the state subsidy to business if they cut worker hours in half but kept everyone on the payroll at full annual wages – the state picking up the cost of the wages for the hours not actually worked). To say that other nations may not stimulate seems a bit two faced.
Option 6 – countries could just start leaving the euro zone – screws Germany more than any other EU country. But Merkel has sold lazy others and can not un-sell it, so I doubt she has the political capital to reverse the austerity everywhere but in German course.
As others have pointed out a common currency is an export ploy that either goes forward to common institutions or dies – and the EU can even get a common health system, or indeed a common anything other than social rights laws that are often rejected by individual countries.
Greece defaults and no longer pays interest and budget is then based on current numbers and just passed new tax collection procedure in or near surplus with Nationalized Greek banks funding small deficits if any – so where is the prediction coming from that after foreign investors flee, Greece would need to cut spending more than Germany now demands, or that its economy would likely collapse – as stated by Slate’s Matt Yglesias with his prediction Greek living standards drop faster than under German austerity – indeed to the level of Serbia and Bulgaria?
I know I just saw their “expert” on Greece, Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, mock Tsipras’ denial he was a Communist and scrunch up her face like that was a distinction that American investors need not trouble themselves with (don’t confuse them with the facts). Thing is, even if the KKE did double their support in the next election, since they’re opposed to any coalition with the other left parties, it wouldn’t make a difference. But if Syriza got another five points and was able to beat out the New Democracy party for the top spot, then Syriza would ger the block of 50 parliamentary seats that the first-past-the-post winner automatically gets, and if they were able to put together a left coalition with those extra seats they could actually form a government. It would only take them getting another 5% or so more of the votes than they took this past Sunday. THEN it would hit the fan, with the Allende option, etc.
The fundamental problem is German Unification. The large power in Central Europe has caused problems each and every time it is assembled.
Usually very quickly after reunification.
One has to remember Orwell’s 1984, there were 3 powers. Oceania has always been allied with Eastasia in a war against Eurasia.
Germany defaulted on that debt pay back nearly every year post the end of the war until Hitler said screw the idea of even discussing it – and the inflation that caused the change in currency was the Brits turning the screw and demanding Gold that Germany did not have – making the Germans pay any amount for gold in their currency – causing the flooding of the world with German currency that was chasing purchase of Gold for the Brits, making the German currency worthless.
There was no debt repayment lesson after WW1 that justifies Germany’s current demands – but there is a German example for Greece to follow of saying screw you to paying off any debt – then like Argentina offering pennies on the dollar in return for new financing. The private sector already took a haircut on Greek debt – it is now time for the Central Banks in the EU to take the same hit.
To paraphrase Jon Stewart, “I’ve been witness to what Germany has done to Europe in the past and I’m not really a fan.”
True – getting the first past the post extra 50 seats makes a government of the left rather easy to put together – without the communists KKE.
But what is poor Greece to do? Germany used the 1936 Olympics to bring international glory back to country (one of the important factors that raised Hitler in citizens’ esteem). Greece already shot its wad on the Olympics.
Stewart & I are masters of understatement.
It will be interesting to watch how the propaganda campaign against a left victory plays out. The dire consequences will be spelled out in greater and greater gruesome detail (not to mention the sabotage activities that will be going on on the ground against the left). This is a direct political conflict between the banks and democracy.
I put you guys in the same category.
Oh, hey, you’re back. Sorry, I was busy being lazy.
They keep insisting that it’s all the non-Aryans’ fault.
Yes, but that’s my point, the debasing of the German Weimar currency was a result of a shell game to keep the funds flowing through Germany, to the
tripledouble entente, back to the USA. It was financial warfare, waged upon the people of the world. The US was just the beneficiary of such largess, only to lose it in the ’29 crash.As for the European Central Bank taking a haircut on Greek debt, good luck getting that one through. They won’t even listen to the Germans who have resigned in protest over the ECB not following its own guidelines and creating a moral hazard by not letting the bond market correctly value Greek debt. If they wanted to default, it should have been done in 2010, and saved billions of dollars, and a lot of blood and tears. They won’t admit this, and are off to the races in Spain at the moment.
Not even close. I admire Stewart but did get tired of him after awhile. Now that I don’t have a TV, I love watching the occasional link that I come across. Do you know if he’s mocked the sponsor that withdrew under R.C. pressure?
What? Bankers feel guilty about making money off of idiot borrowers? I see no pattern here. Aryan is a bit loaded for me though, at least as a definable concept. The Greeks aren’t faultless, they just elected Golden Dawn pukes into their parliament for example.
Sunk cost syndrome.
Eventually banging enough rocks together makes fire right?
My version: Like the drunk at the party, if he only said it one more time, and a little louder, surely everyone would understand.
+1
And that is the truth.
The book is a bit coy here, but the impetus was given by the collapse of East Germany, and Mitterand’s fear that a united Germany would somehow dominate Europe. So he created the means by which that domination actually could happen. Cunning hand of history and all that.
which democracy must win!
The Germans finally paid their last installment on the Young Plan in the early 90s (or maybe it was the late 80s, I forget).
Damn straight. You have to apply the whip. The old slave masters had that down to a `t`.
Merkel is just getting to do what her famous predecessor tried to do with his amed forces. Take over Europe. The Euro is doomed in any event. You cannot have a single currency with diverse fiscal policies. And what is good for the German Banks is not so good for the Greeks or the french for that matter.
Democracy Now had a great in-studio interview last night with Yanis Varoufakis, an Econ Prof at the Univ of Athens. It’s on the DN website. Think you’ll like it.
It’s all a questions of what set of rules you want to follow, and convincing your people that they are/are not important for your country to follow. Germany isn’t united either, there clearly is some political turmoil there, and losing the system’s integrity by a true Greek default, or loss of Spain/Italy will result in some serious hiccups for the German, and then world’s economy.
“Merkel wants subservient Vichy French collaborators, not an indepedent France.” As the Germans always do.
I used to watch him and Colbert pretty regularly but I dropped everything but “basic cable”. I don’t get Comedy Central anymore.
Of course, Germany has all the growth it needs. Why would it encourate growth in the rest of Europe?