A European summit being held tonight in Brussels offers another opportunity for new French President Francois Hollande to offer a different manner of thinking on the euro crisis, away from austerity and toward integration through eurobonds, fiscal transfers and economic growth. On the first part, however, Germany has all but ruled out eurobonds, which would create collective credit risk across the Eurozone, and smooth out the bond spikes that have occasioned the crisis in the peripheral countries like Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal.
Officials from Germany, the continent’s industrial powerhouse, say that they remain implacably opposed to a proposal to allow euro-zone countries to borrow money with the backing of all 17 countries that use the currency — an idea that has been pushed by French President Francois Hollande and others — but that they are open to the possibility of smaller measures. Emphasizing the stakes, a major economic organization said Tuesday that Europe is teetering, as it forecast recession for the euro zone and growth for the United States [...]
“You can wake me up in the middle of the night, at 3 a.m., and I will tell you our position. Or 5 a.m., it doesn’t matter. We think that euro bonds are not the right path for many reasons,” a senior German government official told reporters in Berlin, under a customary ground rule of anonymity.
The idea that there are “smaller” measures that can be agreed upon neglects the fact that eurobonds are in and of themselves a smaller measure than, say, European Central Bank accommodation or a higher inflation target or straight current account transfers from Germany and the northern states to the southern periphery. Germany, which stands to risk the most in the near term from eurobonds, since they’d be at risk for defaults on bonds issued for weaker economies, wants the kind of austerity measures they feel will reduce budget deficits to go into effect first. If in fact that did reduce deficits, they feel this would smooth out the credit spreads and make eurobonds less of a risk to Germany. But this assumes, contrary to all evidence, that more austerity would even reduce deficits. All it has done so far is to send the Eurozone into recession, reducing revenue intake and keeping the deficits in the same place or worse.
So Germany remains implacable. And on the other end of the spectrum, far-left Greek leader Alexis Tsipras has basically gotten nowhere in his efforts to build a wall of opposition to German-led policies. He has no actual power at the moment, however, so his trips to Paris and Berlin never quite made sense to me.
Perhaps Hollande can muster that coalition. But it looks to me like it will take an escalation of the crisis to get any change in direction from Germany.





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Why don’t the other 16 countries all ditch the Euro and leave Adolph Merkel holding the bag?
Another similar take today:
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/05/23/in-europe-time-for-plan-b-only-theres-no-plan-and-no-time/?mod=google_news_blog
I thought about that briefly, until I remembered the last two times it was Germany versus the rest of Europe….You can always add another 1 unto WWII.
So, I at least would prefer that they work out their differences through negotiation.
There are two very separate power struggles going on and you have to account for both having major influence on any agreements or “deals” being worked out. One is nationalism and the other is the uber wealthy. Uber wealthy have all the power to make Germany or any other Country do their bidding but they are not a unified group and greed and avarice are their motivators not common sense and reasoning. If it were reasonable politicians representing the will of their people then this discussion can make sense but it is bat shit crazy rich people who can’t ever lose that are the major influence on this crisis.
This is gonna leave a nasty bruise.
The picture that one gets is a picture of Germany throwing the rest of Europe under the bus.
The Maastricht Treaty expressively forbids one EU country being made liable for the debts of another. The collectivization of risk via Eurobonds would violate this.
You have a FICO 800, your neighbor has a FICO of 400. Do you wanna share you debts with your neighbor?
Wealth destruction is coming. Sovereign debt is going to be repriced either by selective default, or by inflation, which is a form of default. The destruction of wealth will be on a massive scale. Can’t be avoided. The open question is whether the deflationary effect of wealth destruction can be offset by the inflationary effect of Central Bank money printing.
My guess: no.
So Merkel is calling Tsipras bluff it seems, forcing him to live up to his ideals or take the ‘rope around the neck’ to maintain Greece’s European standing. Too bad he is being shunned by so many of the capitalist segment but what do you expect.
Germany’s implacable stance though may not be the best strategy, By insisting on the austerity budget it seems to me that a growth of nationalism is predictable, and by turning away from a more ‘leftist’ or equitable/sustainable practice (as in an end to austerity and diversion of funds from militarism, or perhaps, Eurobonds) Merkel is enshrining the bankers and technocrats into an adversarial position to the rising tide of disaffection.
Notice Frau Merkel’s stance in the photo. She is displaying the classic ‘steepling gesture’. Psychologists say this denotes a sense of superiority and arrogance in the practitioner. That tells you all you need to know about the good Frau and her attitude toward the suffering nations in the EU.
In the absence of any meaningful attempts to resolve the “crisis” escalation of same is inevitable.
Things haven’t gotten bad enough yet for the people who are in positions to help resolve matters. But don’t worry, in due time.
Ever heard of throwing good money after bad?
Of course, Krugman might say throwing good money after bad is the best thing to do.
That’s why he’s a professor and not responsible for anyone’s money.
Thank goodness we have super smart people like Dimon, Stanford, Corzinne, and Madoff responsible for people’s money.
I can see why you say the BS has baffled your brains. Krugman already favors a much bigger Ponzi scheme than Madoff.
After having seen a number of countries operate on his principles be run well into the ground, with not just some people poor, but nearly all, it’s a wonder anyone listens to him anymore.
But, I guess the problem in China pre-1990 was not enough stimulus.
I agree
but David’s “far left Alexis Tsipras” – the leader pf a coalition of parties now registering as a separate party so they can get the 50 seat bonus if they come in first in the next election – well Αλέξης Τσίπρας is a former communist to be sure, but seems like a standard leftest these days – I suspect “far-left” only works under the nonsense our media sells us on where the center is.
The far left Greek would impose the 5th century BC Greek rules that limited total income and total wealth with exile if you tried to exceed those limits. There is a reason the time when the far left Greeks ruled is called the “golden age” !! :-)
Say what?????
Ponsi is a term given to an investment system that has a mathematical proof of failure that was presented in court (take other folks money – spend it – earn/produce nothing).
I have not seen that recommended by anyone as an economic system – although the nuts on the right see any taxation as a theft and a waste.
Your last sentence explains everything.
Is that old Tiresias I see coming down the path, shouting something about “filthy lucre”!
I’ve been a voice in the wilderness for nearly 2 years at FDL when saying austerity is a confidence game in the vein of a pigeon drop or a bonded securities racket .Ponzi is crazy talk .Austerity is merely the jab that sets-up the k.o.,which is the theft of all hard assets in all economies .The underlying premise of the con is belief in some paper,the euro ,having static value .
spot on. And yet, this calls into question why Europe tried to have a single currency in the first place. If there is so distribution of loss across the different polities that make up the Euro zone then there is no basis for having a single currency. The loss of fictive capital due to the break-up of the Euro will be enormous and the ripple effects will cripple already paltry growth in the US and Japan. The BRICS and Latin America might be able to ride this, but at some point Chinese industrialization can’t carry the entire world-economy on its back. global stagnation is certain, global contraction is a real possibility.
He’s just a garden variety ignoramus. Don’t waste band-width on him. If he weren’t such a coward, he could have given his idiotic views directly to Krugman last Saturday. But then he woild have been forced to defend them. I don’t think so.
sn1789 .you say contraction and stagnation as if they are bad phenomena .From a monopoly view,this is an excellent climate for the capital expropriation cycle to further the corporate takeover process known as structural adjustment .Everyone is waiting for that sideline money to be invested,well,it’s coming in M&A ,fiscal consolidation ,privatized utilities and claims on millions of new bankruptcies and foreclosures .Depressed economies are fruit baskets for monopolists.Then comes hyperinflation to cheapen all the debt leverage for this global seizure while also enjoying myth to market on trillions in toxic loans .
If austerity is a confidence game, what does that make Mr. Krudman?
O my goodness. Merkle plays the stern capitalist? Who could have foreseen? Mr. Ollande will follow Mr. Obummer’s lead in pragmatically dismissing “radicals”, even while requesting they stiffen his spine.
A bogus economic union managed by Neoliberal compradors must be vanquished.
This thread is old, so no one will see this, but a system, such as SS which is increasingly having less and less current workers supporting retired workers will fail no matter what tax system you use to support it eventually.
The later investors (taxpayers) will not be able to pay the older investors (retirees) their expected return (benefit). THAT’s a ponzi scheme.
I wish I’d known Krugman was available, I’d have been there.
But, you see, Krugman will never be wrong. It is mathematically impossible.
If the stimulus doesn’t produce jobs, well, then, you say you didn’t spend enough. You can’t lose, there is no way to prove you wrong.
Hey Ludwig ,What did you infer in my comment that makes you think I have any view on Krugman ?I think for myself ,and admire Michael Hudson ,not Krugman .If you wish to challenge my reasoning,bring it ,but don’t be cute because my thinking isn;t conventional .
Why attack one another when the real enemies are austerity, neoliberalism, and their associated militarism?
Oh my goodness, Mr. Defogged, I was trying to elicit a critique of Krudman. And Glory, it seems you do have a view on him! No offense.
Don’t be defensive. I think I’m on your side. Well, maybe further, comrade.
Sorting through that I see a corporate parasite killing its host upon which it ultimately depends directly and indirectly. But what comes next?