The pattern I’m seeing in Europe these days is that each “solution” is given less and less time to work before the markets go right back into crisis mode. And indeed, that’s where we are. The Spanish bank bailout lifted spirits on Friday, and by Monday everyone went back to the same worries. Global markets dipped. Spanish debt yields are soaring, approaching the 7% danger zone seen as impossible for sustained financial management of a sovereign. The rate is up 5% just today. Fitch downgraded 18 Spanish banks.
The controversy over whether the €100 billion bailout was really a bailout or just a line of credit is now a second-order issue; Spain is looking doomed in either case.
Investors worried about uncertainty over the amount of bailout money Spain would take, the mechanism for providing it and the conditions attached to the deal.
“The size of the deal is meant to show a real commitment on the part of the eurozone to stabilise the system,” said Robert Pavlik, of Banyan Partners. “However, this just moves the problem down the road and shows how nervous the EU was going into the Greek election.”
Indeed, in their bid to stop contagion from Greece into the southern periphery, the bailout only spread worries to Italy, providing exactly the kind of contagion it was meant to avoid. What’s more, the real problem for the Eurozone is that their seat-of-their-pants approach to this, with Spain being offered the bailout under existing austerity terms but with no additional fiscal measures demanded (the claim being it’s a bank bailout so the only reforms in exchange are financial ones), the countries already knuckled under by the troika (EU, ECB, IMF) are starting to get angry:
But those countries already under troika control warned that they will demand a revision of their bailout terms if Spain receives special treatment.
“We will be watching the process of the specific programme for Spain’s banking system closely,” Portugal’s prime minister Pedro Passos Coelho said.
“We cannot have first class and second class states,” warned Portugal’s opposition socialist leader Antonio José Seguro.
Ireland’s prime minister, Enda Kenny, has already said that if Spain wins soft terms, then these must be offered to others.
That includes Greece, especially if the anti-bailout Syriza wins on Sunday.
Italy, meanwhile, as the third-largest economy in the Eurozone, stands to have to pay into this bailout fund for Spain, when their economic state is in bad enough shape.
At this rate, the next “solution” for Europe will fall apart as it’s being read.




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This is just more evidence that uber wealthy people are multi-national now. The power money in Europe don’t care about Spanish, Greek, or Italian issues AND they absolutely don’t care about the well being of the average European; they only care about their portfolio and how it compares to other uber wealthy peoples portfolio. Sound financial policy for individual countries cannot come from this dynamic.
Forget austerity the more government cuts spending on jobs the less jobs there are so less people spend and thus pay less taxes to government.
Suspend the debt payments for a few years insist Spain tax the rich more and invest in their infrastructure or be prepared to bail Spain out with more money.
When does Spain have elections next that should be interesting as would current Spanish polling on austerity and the current government.
It’s not a money problem! It’s a distribution problem!
On edit – by which I mean that throwing more money at the banks does nothing to help the core fiscal crises. This serves no purpose except to continue consolidating wealth at the top.
Spending is the solution here, and spending happens from the bottom up. More money needs to be put into the hands of people who must spend that money, lest they starve or lose their homes. Only then can we guarantee that the money circulates through the economy.
David maybe I missed some postings but the REAL story is the Italian banks freezing customer assets and the plan to possibly do this thru out the euro zone…. Thats YOUR money. The banks have no right. If I were an Italian the fisry chane I got I WOULD remove all my money
The problem I have with most of the coverage is we hear “SPAIN BAILOUT” or “GREEK BAILOUT” but this doesnt have anything to do with the actual people. Its about saving banks and financial institutions. The people dont need to be on the hook for the banksters. The “turmoil” is really fictional anyway IMO. The money was made up in the first place. Im no stiglitz but I really dont see what is at all wrong with just clearing the books. Seems like the only people who would be effected are the Top Tier share holders and owners. I dont think anyone would feel bad if a Rothschild went broke.
Anyway… the China engine is grinding to a halt and thats going to throw everything out of whack so Spain is pretty irrelevant in the long run.
Spain has 50% unemployment with their youth and it is getting worse; maybe we will envy that statistic soon….
Fewer than three in 10 American teenagers now hold jobs such as running cash registers, mowing lawns or busing restaurant tables from June to August. The decline has been particularly sharp since 2000, with employment for 16-to-19-year olds falling to the lowest level since World War II.
It’s partly a cultural shift. More youths are spending summer months in school, at camps or in other activities geared for college. But the trend is especially troubling for teens for whom college may be out of reach, leaving them few options to earn wages and job experience.
Older workers, immigrants and debt-laden college graduates are taking away lower-skill work as they struggle to find jobs in the weak economy.
Copyright 2012 The Associated Press.
Shorter read on the austerity bailout:
Fucking NO one believes it will work.
The Italian banks are doing that? I hadn’t heard that.
No one who is sane.
It does seem the whole thing is spinning out of control. The common currency is not working bc each country has its own set of problems. Austerity, whatever the merits (and I doubt many), cannot work simultaneously for all of them. If you export to the rest of the eurozone, like Germany, you may get by with a lower fiscal budget. But that won’t play accross all of them since it is a zero sum game.
Europe needs a fiscal union to make it work. But people in the northern countries ask “how much more of our money do they want?”. So it is beyond me how they are going to resolve this. It will keep tipping towards dissolution. Meanwhile, muddle through as best you can. And it will continue to impact us.
That’s the point. It’s a racket to accomplish a huge upward redistribution of wealth.
The entire reasoning behind bailouts is that they stabilize the fiscal situation and divert collapse. This situation is proving what I think will prove out long term in the U.S.; the banks in their current form are unsustainable and MUST collapse. Bailouts will only prolong the inevitable.
Tiny Cyprus just announced it was getting in line for a bailout. Only around 3 or 4 billion euros, though. Still, Cyprus’ economy is all of 1/60 the size of Spain’s, so by that measure Cyprus needs a lot.
Maybe they’re trying to beat Italy, and get there before the money’s all gone.
Page A-6 today’s WSJ. (I don’t know how to do a link on an iPad yet).
I don’t see any solution that will actually work being approved by the people who are responsible for making the decisions.
Well put. As they say in Louisiana, “When you’re up to your neck in alligators, sometimes it’s had to remember your original goal was just to drain the swamp.
Do they really say that?
Idiots.
Actually…
Fucking NO one believes that it has fucking chance of fucking working.
Actually, that’s a pretty good aphorism. Many times people or ogranizations start off to do one thing and get sidetracked, losing sight of the original goal. Think of it as…
“When you’re up to your ass in Taliban, tribal warlords, and rampant corruption, it’s hard to remember that your original goal was to get Bin Laden.”
That includes those in government who implemented the austerity programs, but they seem to benefit.
But the death of the Euro would insulate the Dollar from possible replacement as the accepted global currency.
It’s not a money problem! It’s a
distributiontax problem!There. Fixed it. I don’t have words strong enough for all the disambiguation, oblique references, triangulation and political correctness.
Call a spade a spade. With apologies to steel inanimate objects with curved points and handles everywhere.
It is working for those in power, and that’s all that matters to them. You have to first imagine that you are one of them to understand the “logic” behind their policies. Then their motivation becomes apparent.
The EU PTB’s original goal, and ever since, has been to delay, linger, and wait.
In that case it all makes perfect sense.
Well, yeah, except the economy for regular folks has already collapsed and the economy needs to be rebuilt with major modifications rather than stabilized.
Bailing out the banks *will* stabilize the economy for the uberrich while redistributing wealth upwards, which brings us back to my point above.
The euro-bailout is just like our government…the one headed by Barack Obama.
It’s all about buying time…to what end, no one knows, since it’s highly unlikely that Jaysus will appear and make it all better.