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Early exit polling from Greece, in the second election to try to form a government in as many months, shows an incredibly narrow race between the center-right New Democracy party and the far-left Syriza party. It raises the possibility that no single party could form a government again, which would mean yet another potential round of voting, and the attendant uncertainty.
Results of the first exit poll announced on Sunday showed that Greece’s general election was too close to call, with the centre-right New Democracy party holding a lead of only half a point over the radical left Syriza coalition.
The survey conducted by six leading Greek pollsters before the polls closed gave the conservatives 27.5-30.5 per cent of the vote to 27.0-30.0 per cent for Syriza.
The PanHellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok) trailed in third place with 10-12 per cent. The moderate Democratic Left party was set to capture 5.5-6.5 per cent.
Whatever the final result, the frontrunner would be unable to win a majority in the 300-seat house, capturing between 125 and 130 seats, pollster Costas Panagopoulos told state television.
The neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party holds 6-7.5% of the vote in this first exit poll, with the lead Communist party at 5-6%.
The Financial Times claims that either winner would be able to form a coalition government. It is true that Syriza and New Democracy have a higher percentage of votes than they received in the first round. And the winner of the elections gets a 50-seat bonus in Parliament, which makes it easier to form a government. But last time around, basically nobody would join a coalition with anyone else, including natural allies. Presumably Pasok and New Democracy, the legacy parties, would join a coalition together, but they may not have quite enough votes on their own to reach a majority. And Syriza, running against the legacy parties, nevertheless doesn’t have buy-in from the Communists or even the Democratic Left (a more moderate splinter from Pasok) to form a coalition. So the prospects of a double-nightmare scenario are very real.
As we have been chronicling, New Democracy was one of the parties that negotiated the original bailout and austerity terms, and while in recent weeks they have said they would like to tweak the agreement, they are seen as solidly within the consensus of staying in the euro, and it probably would not take much from creditors to satisfy them. Syriza has said that they would make the bailout agreement null and void, though they claim to want to stay in the euro and simply re-negotiate the terms. Eurozone leaders, especially Germany, have raised the threat of a Greek exit from the euro in this event, but everyone is basically playing a game of chicken. Syriza is daring the troika (EU, ECB, IMF) to expel Greece, believing they wouldn’t risk contagion. Germany is daring the Greek electorate to pick Syriza, believing they wouldn’t risk euro expulsion. So it’s hard to drill down to the layers of reality beyond the huge bluff on both sides.
Analysts properly describe the election as a choice between anger and fear. Fear drives Greek voters to the legacy parties, wary of a Eurozone exit; anger drives them to Syriza, fed up with the austerity-induced depression.
More as it develops…
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Wondering whether the last Greek exit polls were very accurate? If so, it looks possible that a new pro austerity government will be the result. Damn.
The Guardian is reporting a statement from Pasok that they won’t join a coalition without Syriza. (See Guardian liveblog at 7:19 PM.) That would leave New Democracy without many logical coalition partners.
I wouldn’t put too much faith in early polling giving ND a narrow lead; results from rural areas come in before the vote in Athens, which is likely to push the totals towards the left. In any case, a tense moment…
Are Karl Rove and Deibold down there helping with the election?
Huh. Good link. Looks like more detailed exit polls in showing New Democracy winning by a couple percentage points. Says last exi polls were very accurate.
FWIW, Pasok says it won’t join in a coalition unless Syriza is included, and we know Syriza is at odds with ND on austerity.
Read it here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/definitive-visual-greek-election-tracker
Yeah, the pasok thingie is encouraging.
But the history of center-left establishment parties the world over is on of flaccid concession. So…
Tapiras reportedly concedes. Damn.
Yeah, the polls don’t look encouraging. There’s speculation that the Pasok thing is a power play and I agree; if Pasok agrees to a coalition with New Democracy (and then continues down the path of relentless austerity) they’ll only discredit themselves further and bring about a bigger Syriza victory in a matter of months. By refusing the mantle they put the burden on Syriza: if Tsipras accepts a “grand coalition” he implicates himself in the status quo; if he refuses, new elections are held (again!) and he gets blamed for that plus six more weeks of relentless doom-mongering from the technocrats and Merkel-lites. It’s smart (if dirty) politics on Pasok’s part.
Sadly there is no hope for Greece. The Greek debt cannot be paid with austerity. Even with currency devaluation it may not save them. It is also sad the Goldman Sach’s role in deceptively repackaging the Greek debt the other year resulted in a much higher risk exposure to many other countries and no one mentions it. The over 1000 trillion dollars in global derivatives is a fraud that the world nations and banks cannot repay. I don’t understand why other nations are not issuing arrest warrants for american financial CEO’s and pointing their missiles at Wall Street.
Huh. But then Pasok *wants* austerity to continue, so why not just get it done when the opportunity presents itself? Pasok’s got to be finished anyway, so laying blame somewhere else while sacrificing their own stated goals seems obtuse.
Speaking personally, I think most “establishment” parties want to remain within the establishment much more than they want specific policy goals. I’m not sure that Pasok really *wants* austerity so much as they want to remain within the comfortable mantle of the status quo, and the status quo asserts that there is no alternative to austerity. As to *how* that got to be the orthodox position, you’d have to look at the intellectual and economic trajectory of the past three decades. There’s a really good article about this in the latest issue of Jacobin, as part of their broader coverage of the European Left.
linky?
It appears the talks took place a few weeks ago when ND was seen as the winner – so New left and Pasok will join and the only question is what scraps they get from the Table.
Also it seems that a few weeks ago Germany stated “no change” but also said they would change the time line for gov worker firings and sale of the State owned land, parks, power companies to the German rich – so the big concession for ND is already wrapped and ready for delivery.
The unknown is Athens – it’s half of the Greek population and not ND territory – just young folks 50% unemployed leaning far left – riots could break out there in weeks.
If ND can get real stimulus for 24 months approved by Germany – as a Temp change in time line – ND might survive to the end of the year. The ECB guided by Germany and the IMF has applied credit screws that have shut down the Greek manufacturing sector. Not hard to understand why the younger Greeks refer to Germany leaders as the new Nazi party.
It’s Bennett’s Guardian Liveblog link above
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/greek-election-blog-2012/2012/jun/17/greek-elections-greece-polls-live
In the immediate aftermath it appears that
1) Tsipras was unprepared to govern, and doesnt want to
2) Fear-mongering from the EU Elites worked well enough to prevent a Syriza victory
3) Golden Dawn did better than before despite the entire Establishment being against them (or perhaps because of that…) and the National Socialists have begun their long march back into the pages of history (thank you Goldman Sachs et al.)
4) Europe will continue to bail out Greece no matter what, all the threats of dumping Greece should Syriza win were total psychological class warfare
5) The left and progressives need to get serious about governing, or forever be a marginal force in electoral politics rather than the decisive force; apolitical people-at-large are turned off by unserious people with no self-confidence, its a mammalian thing…
6) Proportional representation = actual democracy, and we need it here in America
Thanks; I was over at zerohedge. Really goes to show how people can be manipulated by fear.
Agreed. This is an interim election. Pasok is on the way to extinction and Syriza will do very well in the next election. Pasok=the U.S. Democrats a couple of years into the future.
Book Salon up with Bruce Schneier’s Liars & Outliers: Enabling the Trust that Society Needs to Thrive hosted by James Fallows
God I really hope you’re right (on both counts).