The most important chart when thinking about the economies under George W. Bush and Barack Obama can be seen above. It compares the first-term job numbers of the two Presidents. Both of them endured recessions at the start of their terms, though Obama’s was bigger. But the biggest difference comes in the public jobs numbers. The parabolic arc on private-sector jobs is broadly similar, although Obama’s are better. But the difference on public-sector jobs is intense. Under Bush, the public sector grew markedly. Under Obama it has shrunk considerably. If we saw Bush-era gains in the public sector during the last four years, the unemployment rate would be a full point lower.
An example of this can be seen in the layoffs of teachers. Joe Weisenthal first caught that over 100,000 teaching jobs have been cut in the last year. It’s not that parents no longer demand teachers for their children, it’s that state government cutbacks have led to this specific job loss, and the federal government has not taken up the slack since 2010. If you go back to June 2008, teacher jobs have fallen by 300,000.
Such cuts obviously have perilous effects for the nation’s education system and long-term economic health, but it hurts the economy in the short-term too. Teachers are disproportionately women, so the cuts affect a subset of worker that already faces significant disadvantages in the American workplace, and these losses no doubt played a role in the recession’s out-sized impact on female workers.
The quote alludes to it, but this also reduces American competitiveness over time. Right-wing education types like to discount the impact of class size and more intensive learning environments for students, but enough studies have shown that larger class sizes have a negative impact on student achievement that we can see the mass layoffs of teachers – or simply the lack of hiring, as older teachers retire while their benefits are still intact – as hurting the US’ economic advantages. This is where the phrase “eating our seed corn” comes in – defunding investments like education have dramatic consequences in the future.
This, by the way, reflects the conservative model for economic growth. It says that public-sector jobs “crowd out” private-sector entrepreneurship, and that we should reduce spending – and therefore public employee jobs – while encouraging the private sector to grow. This is what that looks like.
And next time you hear about the iron fist of the teacher’s unions keeping all these “unqualified” teachers employed, show them this post.





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I guess that the difference between the two situations might be that the type of private sector jobs regained under Bush might have been higher income thus producing income taxes, and lower income under Obama thus depriving the states (which must balance their budgets) of tax revenue.
The current situation in California is one of significantly lower state income tax revenue. So the reduction in state spending (because tax increases are constitutionally and politically difficult) is not a choice.
The OBAMA WHITE HOUSE has been Anti Union from day 1
Remember Rahm Emanuel?
“The Chicago Teachers Union got a strong turnout for a Wednesday rally downtown that aimed to send a strong message to Mayor Rahm Emanuel concerning teachers’ ongoing contract negotiations.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/24/chicago-teachers-union-pr_n_1542383.html
Obama and his masters,”the 1%” hate Unions, because Unions help the USA middle class.
Who cares about Bain Capital, OBAMA is just as bad!
The Obama administration has already made new “free trade” deals with Panama, South Korea and Colombia. In addition, the Obama administration is making the Trans-Pacific Partnership (“the NAFTA of the Pacific“) a very high priority.
In addition to killing millions of our jobs, that new treaty would reportedly ban all “Buy American laws“.
Yes! Obama wants to kill BUY AMERICAN LAWS!
Obama is probably pissed off, he wishes USA un-employment was a lot higher!
And the whole D establishment is quietly going along with this in higher education. Behind the 2020 completion bullshit is a plan to cannibalize existing programs wherever possible.
Massive fail. Destruction worse than under R administrations. A complete and total fucking disaster.
I wish DDay would check out Sir Ken Robinson’s common sense take on education. There are vastly better ways of educating our kids than the left-right pissing match of awful and less so: http://wp.me/p1hyep-BC
The initial Stimulus, which was grossly inadequate, did help to preserve public sector jobs for a while, but not enough of them and not for long enough. The fact that the states have been left languishing in deficits as a direct result of the recession, has not been conscientiously been addressed by the Obama Administration or the Congress. This could have been done if it were not for the Bush Tax Cuts and the war funding, which obscenely have been continued under Obama and even with the 2008 majority of Dems in Congress. Shame on all of them!
Do not underestimate the role state legislatures played in this erosion of public jobs. And the bind that California is still is on its state finances. How many public jobs have been lost in California alone, state and local?
And also the greed of administrators at the top of public agencies, ensuring their own incomes by reducing the number of jobs.
Where is the graph for federal jobs? How many federal jobs have been lost?
The real story here is the damage the “no new taxes” meme has done at the state and local levels.
The initial Stimulus, while grossly inadequate, did help to preserve public sector jobs for a while, but not enough of them and not for long enough. The fact that the states have been left languishing in deficits as a direct result of the recession, has unconscienably been neglected by the Obama Administration and the Congress. This could have been done if it were not for the Bush Tax Cuts and the war funding, which obscenely have been continued under Obama and even with the 2008 majority of Dems in Congress. Shame on all of them! But also, shame on the voters for electing the Tea Party Republicans in 2010 — I think that was the main thing that caused this race to the bottom. We may be witnessing the country going to hell until most people wake up to find that there’s no going back to quality public education or effective government. We will be at the mercy of the corporations, most of which have none.
Obama is done. Barring something highly unusual, he will be tossed out on his ass on January 20. Then, one of two things will happen. Either Romney will follow the austerity he’s promising and the economy will sink deeper into a depression, or Romney will have the good sense to do the opposite and the economy will recover. I think the second possibility has a decent chance of being the route Romney takes since he acknowledged to someone in May that deep spending cuts would shrink the economy.
Romney told a reporter for Time that deep spending cuts would put the economy into a depression and that spending cuts should not come until a robust recovery is underway. The link below has excerpts of Romney’s comments.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/25/romney-spending-cuts-depression-tea-party_n_1545933.html
Lo and behold! Romney actually does have a much better understanding of economics than Barry Zero!
The depressing part of our current situation is that the preponderance of both Democrat and Republican leadership are absolutely wed to this obviously failing “conservative” model. Lip-service is about as far as any Democrat will go to challenge the power-elite that controls the levers. As far as rank-and-file party members go, whatever the Dear Leader says is what they convince themselves to believe.
Just limiting the problem to Education. We’ve got a Democrat in the White House and look who’s running policy. Flippin’ Arne Duncan. You figure, if Democrats were actually trying to do something different, they’d put someone in charge who hasn’t spent a career trying to privatize education and undermine teacher’s unions … maybe even someone who actually earned the professional certifications required to educate students and has some sort of plausible direct knowledge what it takes to be successful in a classroom(I know, crazy, huh?).
So, yeah. This is the obvious outcome of current Democratic policy … which is just current Republican Policy with a patina of unconvincing “we really hate ourselves for doing it“. So, obviously Romney sure isn’t going to save us. What the heck do we do about it?
I’m not convinced Obama’s going to lose.
If he does, I suspect you’re right that Romney will approach the economy a bit more aggressively than Obama has (or perhaps will).
The world is going to continue to suck with either outcome though. They both are horribly lame.
I think the data and graphs are from the St. Louis Fed’s data site, FRED@, specifically ths category page.
Anyone can look at data and graphs, or edit graphs to one’s liking, without signing in, but to save graphs one must make an account, like the usual free signin deal.
I think Romney might actually stimulate the economy. The Rs would be receptive to one of their own but not to Obama. Sad commentary on our leaders, but….. Apart from that, if no money is coming from the Feds to help education then it is time the states actually increased their taxes.
I have lately come to think that help will come only when the Rs take over. They will absolutely refuse to help a D administration.
A good quote from Ralph Nader on one reason why the D’s can’t even seem to get the best of the worst R party ever:
“The Republicans go for the jugular, while the Democrats go for the capillaries.”
The Dems have not supported unions for the past 30 years. The “Race to the Top” should be renamed “The Race to the Bottom” – - the funding was based on disabling negociated contracts and undermining unions.
Just an FYI below :)
Things people don’t know about education:
1. Teachers do what they are told to do even if veteran teachers know new instructional guidelines will not work.
2. Public education is crippled by unfunded mandates – both federal and state.
3. Teacher unions CANNOT prevent teachers from being fired UNLESS administrators have not followed the guidlines for dismissal.
4. Administrators – especially district level – game the system for funding to push agendas at the expense of students.
5. Teachers have NO paid vacation or holidays – their salaries are spread over 12 months – teachers get paid for 180 student contact days in most states.
6. Waste in public education is out of control in most districts – usually the waste is based on the agendas of the district level administrators.
7. Most “New and improved” educational approaches are simply old strategies that have been renamed, rebundled, and marketed to districts. School districts MUST spend federal money or lose it the next year – ie zero based budgeting.
This is just the tip of the mountain top regarding education.
Actually I’d say it reflects the Democratic model – the Republicans talk tough when they are out of office, but when they are in office they are spendy. While when Democrats are in office, they go and make the cuts since at least the time of Bill Clinton. Bush 2 is biggest reflection on this and because Bush was so spendy instead of trying to be Mr Catfood Austerity, that is why the jobs numbers are different.
School districts in many states are bound by Common Core Curriculum materials. Every district in the state has to be teaching the same thing so that all the students cover the same ground. The Common Core Curriculum is thus the same across many states. The feds want to make it mandatory across all 50.
One of the ways that teachers and districts are getting out from under the old “we do it this way because we have always done it this way” or some variant is through Professional Learning Communities. By doing this the teachers in a discipline get together to share best practices. this is also the best argument against merit pay which can be used to punish or even push out someone that a higher up does not like.
The Swedish model of education offers an available template. Kids there spend even less time studying than kids here, and the results are, well Sweden and S.Kores are #1 and #2.
The South Korean model, otoh, is absolutely nonsensical and the comparative results bear that out.
Outstanding! Recommended.
It makes me very sad and I cannot think of any easy answer. Maybe if I had been educated at a privatized charter school I could come up with brilliant solution ;)
Ah, what do you need all them teachers for anyway? They just push stuff like math and science. All you need is a damn bible and you’ll be just fine!
If there ever was a time to spend money fixing our infrastructure at the Fed and State level, this is it. We need the jobs, our infrastructure SUCKS, and it would pump up the economy.
Instead Obama gives a free pass and TRILLIONS to the banksters that fucked the world economy, and starves everybody else EXCEPT the military (a trillion bucks a year just to blow shit up and make enemies). Gee, what a fucking stupid plan, if you can even call it that.
Rather than “eating the seed corn” I think this is a very positive development. During my public school “education” the only thing the public school teachers tried to teach me was how not to think critically, how to obey the Man, and how to add and write coherently enough to appease whatever immediate supervisor I happen to have.
It’s a fricking joke.
The sooner America’s scummy schools are eliminated, the sooner kids can start growing brains again. How about home classes in permaculture, critical thinking skills and Howard Zinn’s “A People’s History of the United States” instead of the absolute disgusting putrid pro-corporate garbage we’re force feeding kids in public schools today?
They should find a category in “Ripley’s believe it or not” for Obama. FDR, a Democrat laid out the blueprint for what to do in a deep recession, and he follows in Reagan’s “trickle down economics” foot steps, plus sending an additional 80,000 troops to Afghanistan to get killed and maimed.
He did precisely what the people that hate him wanted him to do, and they still hate him. Maybe if he did the “moonwalk” across the Mississippi River, they would like him.
Seriously what’s happening?? What will these many number of educated people do…