In addition to Spain’s woes, the other major crisis in Europe’s lap at the moment is the potential exit of Greece from the currency union, which Germany sees as more and more manageable:
The Greek government has struggled to stand by obligations tied to 240 billion euros of rescue funding over the past two years. The country is clamoring for more help as efforts to reduce its debt to 120 percent of gross domestic product by 2020 fall short.
The IMF, which indicated in March it won’t commit more money to Greece, will make a decision on its next disbursement in late August at the earliest based on the troika’s findings, said two fund officials familiar with the situation in recent days.
Germany’s really behind all this willingness to cut Greece loose. The vice-chancellor of the country said he doubted Greece could be rescued and that he has a “lack of terror” over the possibility of a Greek exit.
Paul Krugman rebutted this today.
I’m not saying that Greece should be kept in the euro; ultimately, it’s hard to see how that can work. But if anyone in Europe is imagining that a Greek exit can be easily contained, they’re dreaming. Once a country, any country, has demonstrated that the euro isn’t necessarily forever, investors — and ordinary bank depositors — in other countries are bound to take note. I’d be shocked if Greek exit isn’t followed by large bank withdrawals all around the European periphery.
To contain this, the ECB would have to provide huge amounts of bank financing — and it would probably have to buy sovereign debt too, especially given the spiking yields on Spanish and Italian debt that are taking place as you read this. Are the Germans ready to see that?
I think this is both true and false. Krugman is right that there will be ramifications to Greece leaving the euro, felt mostly in those peripheral countries. At the same time, he correctly says that Greece can’t possibly just stay in the euro, and at some point you have to look at the desperate efforts to keep the currency union together and say that they simply prolonged pain for a lot of Europeans, while extending the ultimate cost of the inevitable crackup. The time has come for Europe to put down the band-aids. It would obviously be preferable for the ECB to step up and take on its responsibilities, but only that should take precedence over unwinding this deeply harmful currency union, which is doing such harm to so many.
There’s more in this roundup from Brad Plumer. In many ways this is a fait accompli: Germany will not lend Greece any more money, and Greece cannot possibly meet its budget goals amidst a depression. Sadly, I fear the status quo as much as a breakup of the eurozone at this point.





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How soon until we Americans realize that the dollar is likewise no longer sustainable where the progressive and productive coastal and northern states subsidize the lazy and profligate yet libertarian southern and mountain states?
Is it progressive to wish to see the unwinding of the EU, rewarding Greek capitalists and compradors, and bringing the further exploitation of Greece in the process?
I think not.
I always like seeing how people use the word “progressive” as an empty vessel, pour into it their favored position, and then demolish anyone who disagrees as being “not progressive.”
The EU and ECB are run of, by and for the banksters.
There is nothing progressive about a nation state forfeiting its sovereignty to the EU/ECB banksters.
Wouldn’t you say, marcos, that bankers that can take apart a union of nation states can take apart a nation state?
And thus what a progressive would want is a different union.
Beware! There Is No Alternative is wholly owned by crapitalists.
IMO, THE only interesting discussion about the terrible, terrible problems the Euro faces is, why does it still take a $1.20 U.S. to buy one?
I guess it’s just not in Obama’s reelection interest to discuss this, huh FDL?
Uh we aren’t anything like Greece. The closest thing we have to what is going on in Europe would be state debt(and that’s largely because of idiotic rules that require 49 states to balance their budgets even when it makes sense to carry debt- all debt is not created equal.)
Actually not all of the red states are welfare queens and not all of the blue states are super duper financiers.
And yet, just by the numbers, Greece’s economy is just a pissant within the EZ. Some 2%?
Maybe Germany is hoping to make a doable example of Greece exiting the EZ. The world doesn’t collapse after all (while conveniently ignoring the impact on living Greeks for a moment).
Is that to “Greece” the skids for Spain, and maybe Italy thereafter?
Maybe it is suddenly time to recall the euroskeptics of just over a decade ago, and whether they were correct or not. And if they were correct, was that by accident or not?
Then rewind to today and decide what to do.
Maybe it won’t be worth the ~$1.20 for long.
The Euro was originally introduced at $1.18, then it deflated slowly to below $0.90. Maybe its real value is somewhere around there. Why should it be any more than that, or even as high as $1.20 today?
Every fiat money system based on an exponentially growing currency will eventually collapse in either hyperinflation or hyperdeflation. Throughout the entire history of humanity there is not a single instance where a paper fiat currency has survived for more than a few decades.
In other words, Greece leaving the Euro is something that would have eventually happened in any event, although it’s surprising that the Euro itself will still exist for a bit after the Greek exit.
The million dollar question is what they are going to do when Spain and Italy continue to have problems. Spain is something like the 9th largest world economy.
Fiat Currencies are worth whatever Paul Wolfowitz (the comb guy) says they’re worth.
The billionaires have been coveting the Greek Isles for years. They have designed (and they are executing) a scheme to take them – to own them, the way Rommey wants to own his own planet in the afterlife.
The economic tool to pressure governments to balance their economies ie taxes, safety net issues, and long term fiscal planning is individual currencies. The bundling of currencies into one single currency hides the weakness in seperate economies. Returning to individual currencies in the EU would benefit all the countries that currently form the EU. The most important legislation that would curtail the manipulations would be to nationalize the banks – the intial shock to their GDPs would be a negative 4-8% decline in one year. However, after the decline the finacial stability would be returned and GDPs would return to positive increases.
Folks, this isn’t rocket science – you have to take the manipulation by the big banks out of the equation. We should be doing the same thing in this country.
Well, I guess we’re gonna find out.
I would suggest buying stock in manufacturers of piano wire, but on the whole I think canned goods might be a better bet. (It would be amusing if the Mormons turned out to have it right all along.)
Have lived in Greece/Crete for many extended periods. Yes they cheat on taxes, put family/allies in public troughs. But most people work their asses off, from cities to the villages. I notice map-caption says Greece’s exit will hurt the EU. Well first the EU hurt Greece. German/French banks financed their own weapons makers for years to sell to Greece on Turkish fears. So, so to speak, Greece’s corrupt gov’t looked for mortages. Now, if I apply for a mortgage, they ask my ability to pay. THEN they do their OWN checking into me. If they believe I’ll pay off—or, if they want to believe it, or they’re hustlers, or they don’t do the homework—and I actually can’t pay off, BANK LOSES, that’s standard law (ignored of course in the underwater USA). So believe me, Greeks are getting ready, planting veggies in the backyards, going back to farms, co-ops, time-banks, digging in to outlast the banksters any way they have to. I’d live there permanently in a heartbeat.
“I would suggest buying stock in…piano wire” Great line, my friend!
They were right. Very right.
Huh? Where to begin…..
Apparently we should all convert to beads or feathers or wait I know ……gold(isn’t that always the point of those that bash paper currency? They want to hawk gold.)
They do indeed.
We had this debate in 1896 and Brykan lost.
To quote Krugman, economics is not a morality play. The rich Greeks who played the system for all it was worth are long gone. Why should the ordinary Greeks suffer for them? We are talking plumbing here, not Calvinist theology.
The Germans seem to have about the same capacity to do economic analysis as Jamie Dimon, who I see by David’s previous post (and am still seething) is considered by Pearlstein to be one of the ‘wise men’ who will save the US from financial disaster. The Greek exit will be catastrophic, but not so much for the Greeks, because the marginal catastrophism for them will be small. They are already very far down the curve.
What happened to Argentina when they defaulted?
This captures my sentiments: union in itself is not (of course) the problem; it’s lack of popular sovereignty. It’s a shame that we have to take recourse, here in 2012, in the nation-state once more, or that Greece should have to. . .
Of course, should they move toward socialism again, toward re-nationalizing their own natural wealth, the CIA–or a belligerent Turkey–or someone will be sure to undo it, I’m afeerd.
In the end it will likely benefit Greece to leave the euro. However, it’s a long, hard slog to the end. There will be a lot of pain in between. Sad.
Have heard that both Greek center-right and center-left pols have taken lots of money from German arms manufacturers, one key to Greek indebtedness; is this your impression?
The role of taxes in supporting the bourgeois nation state–people’s (often) refusal to buy in–is a fascinating one. It’s got to be a project one can believe in.
I know, right. It’s nice that Jamie could fit us on between his not exercising oversight on loans and not exercising oversight on Libor rate manipulation.
Lucky lucky us that such a “savvy businessmen” with attention to detail is going to work on “fixing” the economy. (bangs head on desk because my idiot Congressman is one of those spearheading the fiasco.)
I was skeptical in 1992, but not for the valid technical reasons that have been set out by Krugman and that other friends at the time stated. My skepticism was due to the fact that I never heard a valid reason in favor of the project. It was all fluff. I’m a trained economist, and I can recognize economic fluff when I see or hear it. About the only argument that made sense to me was that tourists wouldn’t have to hold inventories of national currencies. It didn’t seem like a powerful argument at the time, and it still isn’t. The rest was that it would encourage innovation. I never understood exactly how that was supposed to work, and the promoters never explained it. What I did understand was that it was putting the cart in front of the horse. That part made sense.
The history of paper money is much, much shorter than the “entire history of humanity”.
Human history? 5,000 to 6,000 years. Paper money? About 150 years.
“economic fluff” = Bullshit?
Are you being too polite?
I’m totally looking forward to my local Walmart cashier weighing out gold dust for purchases. It’s a completely practical idea.(rolling eyes)
Well first the EU have hurt Greece.
I think you left a word out. No?
I’m not an economist, nor do I know what an ordinary Greek is.
My hunch, though, is that the disfunction extends well down into the middle class in addition to the sins of the uberwealthy. Do ordinary people, too, get by tapping black markets and cheating in an underground economy they’ve become dependent upon? If so, there’s no other way for them?
What the euro needs is a fiscal authority. That is something some economists noticed from the very beginning and, in fact, before it began But those nations really don’t trust each other.
Apparently Germany has nominated itself for the role.
What could be wrong with that?
Michael Hudson: The Weaponization of Economic Theory
Europe’s three needs: a debt write-down, a real central bank, and a more efficient tax system
The term “neoliberalism” misrepresents and even inverts the classical liberal idea of free markets. It is a weaponization of economic theory, kidnapping the original liberal ethic that sought to defend against special privilege and unearned income. To classical economists, a free market meant one free of unearned income, defined as land rent, natural resource rent, monopoly rent and rent-extracting privilege. But to neoliberals a free market is one free from taxes or regulation of such rentier income, and indeed gives it tax favoritism over wages and profits.
Neoliberalism and neo-conservatism are complementary doctrines of power and autocracy combined with deregulation and dismantling of democratic law. The aim is to replace government power as used to protect the people with an oligarchic power to oppress the people.
Today, the neoliberal aim is to cripple government power, enabling a free-for-all for the financial sector. Protecting civil freedoms are also heavily signposted, but the high price of legal representation is a barrier for most. A doctrine primarily of the financial sector, the aim is to un-tax banks and financial institutions and their major customers: real estate and monopolies.
Neoliberalism is a doctrine of central planning, which is to be shifted from governments to the more highly centralized financial centers.
The result is a doctrine of financial war not only against labor but also against industry and government. Gaining the financial power to indebt economies at increasing speed, the banking and financial sector is siphoning resources away from the real economy. Its business plan is not based on employing labor to expand output, but simply to transfer as much of the existing flow of revenue as possible into its own hands, by capitalizing all such revenue into interest payments, on loans collateralized and pledged to creditors.
The result must be economic polarization, above all between creditors and debtors as in Rome. So the end stage of neoliberalism threatens a Dark Age of poverty/immiseration – most characteristically, one of debt peonage. And just as Rome’s creditor class and its predatory imperial expansion brought down the Roman Empire and reduced it to mere subsistence, so the combination of neoliberalism and neo-conservatism today seeks to globalize itself, spreading austerity even as it brings technological progress to sovereign debtors.
That was a great piece by Hudson. It is dense but worthwhile. That last paragraph is a gem.
Thank you, tongorad, for the Hudson link, a superb piece.
DW
Non-sequitur, comrade.
Most of the economically literate here are stuck in libertarian mode on this issue. Almost as if they want to go back to a states’ rights dispute. Sure, there’s Iceland and Weisbrot’s Argentina, but the secessionists play ignorant of the growing desire to end the neoliberal slide in all Europe. And one would suspect that they are playing right into the hands of the banksters in their own backyard.
Hey, it takes ‘em a while to catch on.
Shoot higher, proggies.
Hudson is mistaken. This might have been their predicted result of non-intervention, but non-intervention was their definition of free market. Free markets fail. Neoliberals defraud by the same free market lie, because they approve of these consequences.
One wonders what the classical economists would have done if the consequences were confirmed. Most likely, they would have been neoliberals.
I think their timing is off a teensy tiny bit.
Reactive instead of proactive is going to cost them even if they think having the weak leave is in their best interests.
Not sure why you’d term popular sovereignty as libertarian. The notion that there shouldn’t have been a better consensus among European nations on how to deal with policing the economy (to notice problems)or figured out out how to deal with its problems before they arose is far from the libertarian fantasy that there won’t be any problems as long as you close your eyes, clap your hands (or is it click your heels) and say there is no place like a free market really loudly.
Absent a consensus on how to deal with something as simple as collecting taxes(which apparently was a problem for a while in Greece) or a lagging economy (Germany and France have very different opinions)there probably shouldn’t have been a union of these nations. The EU is already pretty much in a states rights dispute even with the “union.” We saw it with Greece and the ever evolving targets for bailout funds.
I didn’t. Most people here are for secession. Popular sovereignty would be democracy, not capitalism.
It’s my understanding that the EU was never seen as complete but as a stepping stone to greater integration. Wall Street sabotaged that and this crisis makes it very difficult to proceed. Whether secessionists here are operating from ignorance, parochialism, or bias I haven’t studied. But their reactions sure aren’t “progressive”.
“I think this is both true and false.”
Actually, nothing is both true and false, and I’m afraid I don’t think DD makes it clear what he might mean. DD has some kind of objection to what Krugman is saying, but all I can get is that he thinks Europe should “put down the band-aids.” That’s hardly something Krugman would disagree with. But it’s irrelevant anyway, because Krugman is in prediction mode in this post, not recommendation mode. He is claiming, roughly, the following. Greece is going to exit the euro one way or another, and soon. There might possibly be a manageable exit for it, if the ECB provided massive funds, etc., etc. But based on past history, and on recent remarks by the German vice chancellor which indicate that the major players don’t understand the severity of the situation, it is very unlikely that the Germans are “ready to see that.” Hence, what is likely to happen is a messy and ugly exit for Greece, with attendant financial disruption on a large scale, of which we should all “be very afraid.”
So what part of this prediction does DD think false?
Most here are for secession because they recognize there is disarray and disagreement among the EU nations on how to deal with a lagging economy and a negative balance sheet, and because they believe the popular opinion of austerity AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME is a really bad idea and that is pretty much what Germany is insisting on.
Can’t say that I disagree with that sentiment. If they (the EU)are having trouble agreeing on solutions then perhaps it is best to part ways. Unions, partnerships, etc, etc only work when both parties can come to mutual understanding and each side believes they’ll get something out of it. The squabbling definitely doesn’t help investors feel confident that a solution can and will be reached.
How many California cities have declared bankruptcy in the past six weeks, what, three, most of which are in the red inland counties?
The overlap is striking, that most of the coastal liberal/progressive “blue” states generate most of the wealth in the country while most of the southern or inland conservative/libertarian “red” states don’t cover their freight and are subsidized.
No we are not Greece, we are seeing coastal wealth producers generally cutting their budgets to the bone so that federal transfer payments can generally subsidize the red states. The Germans are smarter than the Californians, New Yorkers or Washingtonians. They resist subsidizing the European South even though there is no place else for their surplus Euros to be invested but in European Southern debt.
Shorter cwaltz:
Like I said, can’t even call that progressive.