Similar to Libya, the CIA’s instigation of the Assad regime’s collapse could lead to a protracted civil war and racial/religious pogroms that will quickly be ignored by the mainstream media.

By the way, who is the CIA supplying with weapons in Syria? Why, Al Queda of course! Just like they did in Afghanistan in the 80′s. Isn’t it interesting how this stuff all fits together.

Seymour Hersh was interviewed by CNN’s Hala Gorani in 2007:

HALA GORANI: Well, investigative journalist Seymour Hersh reported back in March that in order to defeat Hezbollah, the Lebanese government supported a Sunni militant group, the same ones they’re fighting today. Seymour joins us live from Washington. Thanks for being with us. What is the source of the financing according to your reporting on these groups, such as Fatah al-Islam in these camps of Nahr el Bared, for instance? Where are they getting the money and where are they getting the arms?

SEYMOUR HERSH: The key player is the Saudis. What I was writing about was sort of a private agreement that was made between the White House, we’re talking about Richard — Dick — Cheney and Elliott Abrams, one of the key aides in the White House, with Bandar ["Bandar Bush" helpful 9/11 ally--my emphasis]. And the idea was to get support, covert support from the Saudis, to support various hard-line jihadists, Sunni groups, particularly in Lebanon, who would be seen in case of an actual confrontation with Hezbollah — the Shia group in the southern Lebanon — would be seen as an asset, as simple as that.

GORANI: The Bush administration, of course, officials would disagree with that, so would the Siniora government, openly pointing the finger at Syria, saying this is an offshoot of a Syrian group, Fatah al-Islam is, where else would it get its arms from if not Syria.

HERSH: You have to answer this question. If that’s true, Syria which is close — and criticized greatly by the Bush administration for being very close — to Hezbollah would also be supporting groups, Salafist groups — the logic breaks down. What it is simply is a covert program we joined in with the Saudis as part of a bigger broader program of doing everything we could to stop the spread of the Shia, the Shia world, and it bit us in the rear, as it’s happened before.

interesting, thanks.

http://jordantimes.com/saudi-prince-bandar-appointed-intelligence-chief

“The world’s top oil exporter and birthplace of Islam is locked in a struggle for Middle East influence with Iran as the rivals back opposing forces in Bahrain, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

“There was a feeling that we needed stronger intelligence and Bandar has a history of this sort,” said Jamal Khashoggi, a prominent Saudi commentator with ties to the royal family.

“We are witnessing the start of a new Middle East with the collapse of the (Syrian President Bashar Al) Assad regime. We are worried about Jordan and Lebanon,” he said.

That IS very interesting. I was doing some research and most knowledgable authorities aseem to agre with you that the Saudis are calling the shots and have a vested interest in eliminating Asaad. But, what is the strategy after he is gone?

I see and hear a lot of this Sunni Shia debate. Is there really the possibility of a resolution there????

I consider you an informed person on this. Are the rrebels getting enough outside help to win now?????

Maybe this dies down; it’s not like Turkey has invaded Iraq over their PKK safe haven

Just in case anyone doesn’t get your snark, there’s this.

Crap! My sister just left on a flight today for five days in Turkey. Yesterday, I warned her to stay far from the Syrian border (and go easy on the stuffing and mashed potatoes).

And, maybe it doesn’t. In my experience, the only thing worse than a pissed off Greek, is a pissed off Turk.

I don;t see this ending well.

“As you can see from this YNET article the CIA is spilling its guts to the Israelis and their friends in the hope that when the ‘Girl Scouts’ run WH policy towards the ME and Syria in this case falls on its ass and produces yet another Islamist state, they, the CIA will not ‘carry the bag’ in the eyes of the general public. Good luck on that boys and girls!” –Col. Pat Lang

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4260723,00.html

The CIA is supplying weapons to AQ?

It’s Barzani’s work, apparently, with a “Treaty of Erbil.” Barzani is the current President of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region. (Barzani and Maliki are feuding, while Assad is busy with other matters.)

Jul 25, 2012
Liberated Kurdish Cities in Syria Move into Next Phase
ERBIL, Kurdistan Region — Syrian governmental forces have retreated from the Kurdish regions of Syria without a fight; the liberated cities are now being ruled evenly by the People’s Council of Syrian Kurdistan (PYD) and the Kurdish National Council (KNC).

The KNC and PYD agreed to jointly control the liberated Kurdish cities in a deal made in Erbil on July 11, under the supervision of Kurdistan Region President Massoud Barzani.

“According to the treaty of Erbil which was signed by the KNC and PYD, any administrative vacuum in the Kurdish cities of Syria will be occupied evenly — 50/50 — by these two signatories. These two groups will continue ruling the Kurdish regions until an election is carried out,” said Nuri Brimo, a spokesperson of the Democratic Kurdish Party of Syria

The national flag of Kurdistan and the flag of the PKK – which the PYD is affiliated with — are now being raised over the majority of government and public buildings.
http://www.rudaw.net/english/index.php?news=4999

Inner City Press reports that Saudi Arabia has prepared a new UN resolution to be submitted to the UN General Assembly (which has no authority) next week. The resolution includes: “Fully supports the Envoy’s demand that the first step in the cessation of violence has to be made by the Syrian authorities, and therefore calls upon the Syrian authorities to fulfill immediately their commitment to cease the use of heavy weapons and complete the withdrawal of their troops and heavy weapons to their barracks.” Good luck on that.
http://www.innercitypress.com/syria1chemsaudi072712.html

We can expect increased Saudi involvement with Bandar bin Sultan now as Saudi Arabia’s new top spy. “Bandar Bush” is a member of the House of Saud and was Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United States from 1983 to 2005.

A lot depends right now on how Turkey responds to these events.

Assad had the PKK fall into his lap because of the Free Syrian Army’s inability to deal with them. So they cut a deal with Assad. And now we watch to see whether Syria becomes a base of refuge for PKK actions in Turkey or Turkey without provocation or phony provocation invades Syria–or Turkey acts with restraint.

We are also seeing various factions within the Kurdish independence movement maneuvering to take advantage of this event.

What Assad might have unwittingly done is created the basis for an independent Kurdistan that comprises at least the Syrian and Iraqi Kurdish territories. If that happens, how Kurds deal with human rights with the Sunni, Shia, and any Christian minorities in the territory they control will be important as to whether the Syrian civil war spins into a regional ethnic war.

The YNET article is fascinating, and as northwestbynorth points out framing the situation in a way that (1) is self-serving to the CIA and (2) attempts to signal Israel that “We’ve got this.” Do they? And will the Israeli leadership come to the same conclusion and publicly (although not secretly) stand down.

The phrase “radical Moslem Brotherhood elements” makes me think that the CIA does not understand the situation. Given this, the CIA might indeed wind up carrying the bag in the eyes of the public.

I found this very interesting if it is the CIA and Israeli understanding of US policy. It fits the notion that Israel was satisfied dealing in Syria with the devil it knew.

The US Administration had a vision for Syria. The Americans wanted the Baath party to continue running the country. This party is indeed headed by an Alawite, but mostly comprises Sunnis.

The panicky language about Moslem Brotherhood in Egypt, Moslem Brotherhood in Syria, Moslem Brotherhood in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon makes it seem that the writers, if not the Israeli government, is beginning to see hints of the self-destructiveness of their policy for Palestine.

Think this will end well? How will Turkey handle it?

The General Assembly can muster a resolution. It will be interesting to see how that vote splits as it will profile the public stance of all the UN members. The Saudis must think they have a sufficient number of votes if they are bringing it forward. Diplomatically, this “sense of the world” vote can influence some countries in their policy. The permanent members of the Security Council are not likely to be moved by this vote.

Got news for ya. Turkey has been a ringleader of the war against Syria from Day One.

a sufficient number of votes

Does China’s vote count more than US’s? (1.37b vs. 0.31b pop) Or are we like Wyoming in electoral college?

Yes. Al Qaeda has always been a favored recipient of CIA weapon. What, you thought that would change after 911? Hah, naive. Al Qaeda is the main goto player for all the religious Jihads against regimes the US doesn’t particularly care for. Such as those that want to be aligned with Russia or China rather than the US.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/25/world/middleeast/al-qaeda-insinuating-its-way-into-syrias-conflict.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/25/world/middleeast/al-qaeda-insinuating-its-way-into-syrias-conflict.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

We are talking about the General Assembly. Every nation gets one vote. But on this issue, there is no real action that General Assembly can take. That means that Saudi Arabia has to have enough of the 193 member vote for the resolution not to look silly. It’s one nation-one vote.

In the Security Council, it’s also one-nation one-vote but there are five permanent members of the council; the other members rotate each month. The five permanent members are US, UK, France, Russia, China. Importantly, the permanent members 5 of the total 193 members of the UN have the power to veto any resolution with just their vote. And all have.

If that is indeed true, it’s likely to come back to bite them.

“But, what is the strategy after he is gone?

I see and hear a lot of this Sunni Shia debate. Is there really the possibility of a resolution there????”

That is the question. I go with those who state that Egypt, Libya, Syria, are but pieces on a game board. It’s not really about them. Some argue that a confrontation with Russia, allied with Syria and Iran is the real goal. The Oligarchical Banksters who’ve taken over Western Democracies playing chicken with Russia in order to take down any opposing power of real consequence to their undoubtedly nefarious designs. Russia’s been there–done that with the London-based oligarchs who had a fine old time raping them eight ways to sunday under their puppet, Yeltsin. That memory is still raw.

Don’t know much about the Shia/Sunni divide other than like you most likely know, that it can be extremely bitter. So, as with all divides amongst people (the soylent green) a wonderful opportunity for exploitation as we are apparently seeing.

To paraphrase George Carlin “It’s a big plan, and we ain’t in on it.”

Gotta agree.

Surely they knew the risks when they fussed about the Turkish plane that got shot down. With NATO behind Turkey and Russia behind the PTB in Syria, your theory about a new cold war is looking more and more accurate.

Did a lot of emailing with a friend over that. Finally came across an online ref that Erdogan hoped to be a ME power broker. LOL. No other explanation arose, so I had to take that hypothesis as the only survivor, or rather the only explanation that anyone ever advanced.

What could he be thinking–complete chaos on his border? Seems to have learned nothing from Iraq.

So be it. Stupider people than him making big decisions, like overwrought Hillary & Susan Rice. (We can leave Israel out the mix since their decisions are always stupid & overwrought.)

Saudis, Qataris will fight down to the last AQ terriss & U.S. soldier.

WRT Erdogan, not only will he regret chaos on his border, U.S. et al will toss him on the dustbin of history should Assad be deposed.

I learned from Iraq WMD that as much as sensible outsiders can know in advance, there is no stopping stupid actions that PTB are wedded to.

Except that Russia and China (the key Shanghai Cooperation Organization members) don’t want to have that cold war. Russia had talks with the FSA and aside from opening the door to Western intervention has done little to buck up Assad. Apparently Russia got assurances from the FSA that the Russian base on the Mediterranean would remain if they came to power.

I don’t think that it’s spinning out toward a new cold war quite yet. And a lot depends on how wise Erdogan is in his foreign policy. The three key players are Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. Turkey is a member of NATO and aligned with the US. It is also largely Sunni moslem. Saudi Arabia sees itself has the rightful leader of the Islamic world because of its guardianship of Mecca and Medina. And Saudi Arabia is aligned with the US through oil dependency; that should give pause about how strong that alliance is or who exactly is pushing whom. But…Turkey and Iran are the two models of democratic revolutions in the Middle East, whereas Saudi Arabia is a very traditionalist monarchy with all that implies for who owns the businesses and industries. The game, if there is one, is among those nations trying to bring in their friends and allies.

For Syria itself, the situation is bizarre. Even as Assad essentially abandons Syrian Kurdistan, the Syrian government forces are preparing to take back the largest city Aleppo, in which there are neighborhoods with major firefights going on and other neighborhoods with huge peaceful anti-government protests. And likely, but not documented, neighborhoods that could muster pro-government demonstrations.

I still maintain that this makes sense only if one accepts that it was an Arab Spring protest that received an over-reaction from the authorities. As it escalated, all the opposition groups tried to form a coalition, a meeting that Turkey hosted a year ago in Istanbul. Because there is a strong element of religious and ethnic conflict in the opposition (not to mention some bad history) members of the military whose families either came under attack or were likely to come under attack deserted and formed the Free Syrian Army about the same time the political coalition was forming. Shortly thereafter, Qatar, which was supplying weapons to the National Transition Council in Libya started also supplying weapons to the FSA likely shortly before the fall of the Gadhafi regime. Turkey at this point was trying to mediate between the Syrian government and the opposition coalition.

Things changed for Turkey when Syrian forces moved in to suppress protests near the Turkish border and refugees sought asylum in Turkey. Refugees also sought asylum in Jordan (which is a likely route for arms from Saudi Arabia. And there things sat for months, with the civil war within Syria gradually escalating. Until the shooting down of the Turkish plane a month ago.

Erdogan seemed to be operating through the NATO alliance. It is not clear where the idea of sanctions came from. Based on the US having done it with Iraq in the Clinton administration, likely it was Hillary. So now, with the PKK in alliance with Syrian Kurdistan, Erdogan has a delicate problem.

What Erdogan and Turkey have been pushing is Turkey as a model of Islamist democracy in contrast with Iran’s model for Islamist democracy. That would make Erdogan influential in the countries like Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen and any other transformative Sunni countries were he to succeed. And it would geographically resemble the old Ottoman empire; there are historical a cultural memories that Erdogan can play upon.

The Veterans for Peace really laid out the right prescription for handling the quagmire…

… Recognizing the critical nature of the present situation in the Middle East and the threat of an imminent war, Veterans For Peace,

— Urges all VFP Chapters and the broader peace movement to press the US government to support the Helsinki Conference and the establishment of a Nuclear Weapons Free Zone in the Middle East as a concrete and logical solution to the present crisis in the region.

Btw, the Turks have regularly(at least monthly) bombed and/or raided the PKK in Iraq, since the fall of Saddam…!

What Erdogan and Turkey have been pushing is Turkey as a model of Islamist democracy in contrast with Iran’s model for Islamist democracy.

When you compare Turkey’s systemic repression(literally Martial law in all the Kurdish provinces) of the Turkish Kurds(the largest majority of the Kurds), to the Iranian Regime’s relative tolerance, one would wonder why they’d be receptive to Erdogan’s model…!

I agree with all of the VFP’s resolution points.

And the Turkey/PKK battle goes on because there is no political resolution within Turkey. So actions by the PKK are followed by pursuit into Iraq and camps in Iraq believed by Turkey to be PKK bases for attacks on Turkey (regardless of the truth of that) are the targets of Turkish cross-border raids.

@30 Most of the folks who see Turkey as a model don’t separate out the discrimination against and repression of Turkish Kurds. They see Istanbul and Ankara and the majority urban life and the way that Erdogan’s party has re-introduced Islamic principles into what was a military-run secular state. And most of these folks also do not want to see the sort of theocratic superstructure that Iran has on the states they are hoping to change (regardless of Iran’s toleration of the Kurds or other ethnic groups).

Passing moral judgements on countries is easy. Look at the suppression of Catholics and Protestants that the UK did in Northern Ireland for 30 years. And all of the US colonial projects. In fact, a number of the folks who see aspects of Turkey’s approach to Islamic politics as a model also see some elements of Iranian democracy as a model. They need not conflict. And the important point is that they do not see US democracy as a model.

…. They need not conflict. And the important point is that they do not see US democracy as a model.

I totally agree, and, funny how they’re not looking at the US, eh…? ;-)

Syria in-fighting, now Turkey might get pulled in. Strategically, it’s all good news for us. And Turkey isn’t much of an ally anyhow.