With only a handful of jobs reports until the 2012 Elections, each one takes on more and more significance. And this is an OK report for the Obama Administration. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the economy added 163,000 jobs in July. This was above the consensus of 100,000.
The news wasn’t entirely good. The revisions for May and June were negligible. And both the employment-population ratio (58.4%) and the labor force participation rate (63.7%) actually tracked down. That should have led to a reduction in the unemployment rate, but it actually ticked up by 0.1% to 8.3%. That’s a bit unusual with that job gain, so the household survey and the establishment survey diverged somewhere along the line. This could get revised in coming months, which is more likely to mean a lowering of the unemployment rate before the election. (UPDATE: if you look a couple decimal points out, the jobless rate actually moved from 8.217% to 8.254%, just enough to round up but not a tremendous amount.)
Obviously this wasn’t a good enough report for the Romney campaign to no longer have a story to tell about the bad economy. There are still 12.8 million Americans out of work, including 14.1% of the African-American population and 10.3% of Hispanics. 5.2 million Americans have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more (this is 40.7% of the total unemployed, which is actually the lowest percentage since December 2009). You add the involuntarily part-time workers, the underemployed, and those marginally attached to the labor force, and you’re still at around 25 million Americans suffering through what is, for them, a depression.
On the bright side, professional and business services added 49,000 jobs in July, buoyed by increases in computer systems design. Temp services went up, which sometimes means that businesses are on the verge of being ready to hire full-time work, though not always. Food and drinking services shot up by 29,000, which is in line with their annual rate. Manufacturing jumped 25,000, mostly from a rise in durable goods like automobiles. The reduction in seasonal auto industry layoffs lef to a volatile first-time jobless report during the month. That accounted for half of the rise.
There was a labor dispute in the utility industry (I think they mean ConEd in New York City) that led to 8,500 workers being taken off payrolls, so if you look at that you could say that the increase in jobs was even higher. That will probably get reflected in down-the-line revisions.
The average workweek remained the same, and in good news for workers, hourly earnings edged up by two cents and are outpacing inflation, up 1.7% year-over-year.
Overall, the report has something to highlight for the Obama Administration and the Republicans. There are only two, possibly three, more jobs reports until the election (depends on if they deliver a jobs report on November 2, four days before the polls open).




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aren’t those “private sector jobs’ and the number would be offset when compared with public sector jobs lost?
If we began preparing for the enormous changes the warming will bring to the Earth soon we’d have lots of jobs fast. The conversion to solar, wind , geo-thermal and eventually Fusion is long over due for a start. We need a new electrical grid and our hiways, bridges and water systems are in terminal decline in many areas. We need a a high speed train system and the defenses for NYC from a now rapidly rising Ocean needs to be designed and started ( 3 huge storm gates like London now has and Venice.) These are just a few of the projects that need to be started ASAP. I don’t think the public or most of our so called leaders realize the magnitude of the change coming or how fast it will come on us.
That patent reform jobs boom is sure to start any day now.
Here’s a couple of months of job creation right here:
Add the millions of H1-B visa holders already working here and you have a couple of months worth of job creation overnight when you STOP THESE WORK VISAS AND SEND THESE PEOPLE HOME.
We do not owe the world a job when millions of Americans are out of work with no hope of getting any!
Don’t you realize how much better your life is with the 1%ers controlling the wealth needed to fund these projects.
How dare you suggest projects where we would have to claw back the ill gotten gains of the past thirty years, while they trickled all over us, from willard’s country club buddies to fund these public necessities. ! /s
Hopefully, even these fools will wake up and smell the rising garbage. Look at Muller’s public recant the other day. It’s just a matter of time before circumstances force the change. Unfortunately, time is a luxury were running out of in this unfolding disaster.
Ten years, Ten Trillion on Infrastructure.
Don;t tell anybody you heard this from me because I work for a Chinese lady who hires any Chinese that walks int he door. We employ about 90 people total here. Of that a good 20-25 jobs COULD be filled by Americans. But they are not. Only about 8 are. The rest, lemme see 20 minus 8 =…..well, let’s say around 16-19 are filled with Chinese immigrants all with work visas. 1) bceause they are Chinese and 2) because they work really cheap.
Keep this on the down low.
There is no reason to spin some highlight or some positive about this. This sucks unless this is the desired new normal. I seem to recall someone on the obama team saying a few years ago that they could live with 8% unemployment.
This is absolutely nothing to get excited about. The economy is still moving sideways.
There are 30 million unemployed people in this country and it needs ~150K to keep pace with population growth. So even if we generously assume a net growth of ~20K jobs, that’s still a drop in the proverbial bucket. Yes, low-wage temp work is up. That’s been the case for most of this year, but it’s not up far enough to cause permanent hiring. Yes, low-wage service sector work is up, but the vast majority of those people are barely above the poverty line and receive no bennies, just like the temp workers. Many of those people are in fact quite poor, both technically and literally.
I’m amazed at what passes for “good news” these days. Just amazed. The real unemployment rate is somewhere in the range of 15-17%, perhaps even higher. Some localities are well into the 20s.
None of this is socially or politically sustainable. But let’s just keep whistling past the graveyard, shall we?
You said all that so well Emocrat. I’m as amazed as you about what passes for good news these days.
The Household Survey, which counts actual people, showed a loss of 195,000 jobs. The 163,000 number is the adjusted (i.e. manipulated) number after it is fed through a black box computer program using an economic model of unknown accuracy. Unknown because only the BLS knows the parameters of the adjustment process. Why does anyone even pay attention to a meaningless number like this ?
The last four years have been brutal for almost everyone I know over 45 years of age.
Most of these people have not gotten full time jobs with benefits after they have been laid off. Or even full time work let alone the same money they were making before the criminals on Wall Street crashed the world economy.
The real unemployment numbers can’t be even close to being 8%. Not even close. All lies.
Yep, the beloved Birth/Death Model. It’s partially right and partially wrong, but only BLS knows the details. As such, it simply isn’t worth anything to a public increasingly kept in the dark as to the health of its own economy and society.
It should come as no surprise that an incumbent president might want BLS to fudge the employment numbers for his benefit. Both surveys should at least reflect similar trends. But in this case, the hedline figure is the opposite of the figure ignored by the mediots.
What’s even worse is the running assumption from “analysts” that these numbers will matter come November. But most people don’t look at statistical reports to make decisions at the ballot box. They will still see a faltering economy taking more victims, victims they personally know, between now and then. Statistically, 3rd Quarter results more broadly correlate with election results than these ridiculous employment reports.
Lastly, this graph says all that needs to be said about “good news” and how much that phrase really means.
The last four years have been awful for younger workers as well.
That’s what I was thinking.
People, we need to fight back.
These elites don’t give a shit whether we starve or not.
Let’s make them.