When you talk about “the Ryan budget,” you have to make a set of distinctions. There are actually, I believe, three Ryan budgets. The first, which pre-dates his ascension to the chair of the House Budget Committee, was a ridiculous conservative fantasy that slashed taxes and increased deficits by something like $60 trillion over time.
When he actually came into power, he had to come up with a more legitimate document, but only slightly. That led to the 2011 budget, which eliminated traditional Medicare entirely for people under 55 and turned it into a voucher program, where everyone gets a coupon, which shrinks in real value over time, to purchase health insurance on the private market. What Republicans recognized after 2011 is that this hit too close to home for their most reliable base of supporters, seniors. Even the exemption for the over-55 crowd didn’t comfort them, and it shouldn’t, because the risk pool would shrink as Medicare closes for younger seniors, and coverage would gradually get worse and worse.
So Ryan changed his budget for 2012, as it relates to senior programs. He dropped the privatization of Social Security, which he has been pushing since at least 2005. And in what is sure to get repeated often throughout the campaign, he teamed with Democrat Ron Wyden on a “premium support” plan, where seniors still get a voucher to buy insurance, but they get an option of traditional Medicare on the menu. In addition, the voucher is slightly more generous over time, although it will remain inadequate – that’s how the government derives savings from the plan, after all.
This still would present a problem with the shrinking risk pool, killing the bargaining power of Medicare, which leads to much cheaper health costs than private insurance. Seniors in traditional Medicare would get worse coverage. It resembles the “withering on the vine” of Medicare that the Gingrich plan back in the 1990s contemplated. And of course, it incorporates all of the Medicare cuts that they are now criticizing the Obama Administration for including in the Affordable Care Act.
(Incidentally, Wyden is backpedaling, saying that “Governor Romney is talking nonsense” about his teaming up with Ryan, and that he merely co-authored a policy paper, not legislation. Incidentally, Wyden voted against the Ryan budget when it came up in the Senate this year.)
What should get more attention is what Ryan did to his budget to compensate for these changes to his signature Medicare proposal. He had to extract money from elsewhere in order to make the numbers work (relatively speaking; his budget still doesn’t balance until the 2030s, and only then under very questionable assumptions). Ryan would block-grant Medicaid, cutting off the elasticity that comes into the program in times of stress, and over time dumping between 14 and 27 million from the Medicaid rolls. If anything, he’s even more severe to the rest of the federal budget:
Ryan really would decimate government funding, to the point it could no longer carry on many routine operations. According to the Congressional Budget Office, Ryan’s most recent budget would, by 2050, shrink spending in everything but the big entitlements (Social Security and government health insurance programs) and interest on the debt to less than 4 percent of gross domestic product. To give you a sense of scale, spending outside those entitlements and interest now represents more than 12 percent of GDP and has never, since World War II, represented 8 percent. What would this mean in practical terms? Massive, debilitating cuts to everything from law enforcement to education to highways to food inspections. (Ryan has said he wants to increase defense spending, which would mean steeper cuts to everything else.)
In fact, the Romney campaign has said that they would never reduce defense spending below 4% of GDP, which means the entire discretionary budget would have to have a negative rate of spending. That includes everything the government does outside of mandatory spending and things like Social Security with a dedicated funding stream. Ryan would also slash spending on mandatory programs for the poor. In fact, in his initial budget, 2/3 of all the spending cuts would hit the poor directly.
Tim Murphy has all of this in chart form. The bottom line is this: Ryan’s priorities have nothing to do with balancing the federal budget. His budget doesn’t do so for over 20 years. He voted for every single budget-busting program of the Bush Administration and he believes in federal spending to support his home district. Balancing the budget is a convenient crutch for his real goal – changing the way government works entirely. He thinks the poor don’t have a safety net, but a hammock. He wants to sever that hammock from the tree, and sever the relationship between government and its neediest citizens. He wants to either privatize government services or end them. Period, end of sentence.




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One cannot understand Ryan unless one understands Ayn Rand, because Ryan has said:
(Ayn Rand: Patron Saint of The Plutocracy). Her ideas are psychopathic so it is a thing to note.
I love Ryan’s red, white & blue eyes. Very patriotic.
Lie down with dogs, get up with fleas. What did Wyden think would happen when he teamed up with the Very Serious Paul Ryan to help screw over ordinary Americans?
Taste the bipartisany goodness.
Which is of course why Ryan recently was forced by the US Conference of Catholic Bishop to disavow and recant his worship of Ayn Rand.
But of course that disavowal should be taken about as seriously as his claims — claims defended by supine establishment media figures — of alleged fiscal and numeric expertise.
Even if Ryan’s Medicare Groupons don’t shrink in value over time, there’s still the very big problem of very old and very vulnerable Americans being jerked around by health insurers over denied claims, co-pays, and deductibles. It’s hard enough for a person in the prime of life to deal with insurance companies. Now imagine their parents and grandparents having to do it.
John Kerry was criticized by Catholic prelates in 2004 for his pro choice stance. Everything about Ryan’s operating philosophy goes against the social teachings of his church. Which is why the first member of the Catholic bishops who will gladly and unctuously give Ryan communion will probably be Tim Dolan, that blowhard used car salesman masquerading as a Cardinal.
Sad that we have to resort to the risk pool argument to get seniors to support social security and medicare for future generations. At one point in time, it might have been considered a winning argument to say that their children and grandchildren deserve the same benefits that seniors are receiving. Their children and grandchildren pay into the program. But I guess it is each generation for itself, so we have to appeal to self interest and the risk pool.
I’m surprised no one has called Ryan’s proposal a plan to shut down the federal government except for the DOD, because that’s what it would do.
Many of the middle class will support cuts to programs for the poor, especially if they are presented as “saving” middle class entitlements and “keeping America strong.” Bet on it. Most of the middle class came from the poor, and couldn’t cut their ties fast enough when they streamed into the then newly developed burbs. When some of the middle class descend to poor, they won’t see how their obtuse self-absorption did them in.
Does he have a drinking problem?
Story developing on insider trading by Ryan. Of course it’s white collar crime so he has nothing to fear.
http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-ryan-insider-trading-2012-8#ixzz23RlXy6M6
You know what kills me? That Ryan has been annointed as some kind of bold genius when it comes to fiscal matters. All he has ever proposed is Republican wet dreams that they have been trying to enact since the last time they destroyed our economy in the 1930s. Nothing knew here. The only thing that changes is the packaging.
What I’m hoping for is a landslide election that will end the Regan revolution once and for all.
Well, I too hope Dr. Jill Stein will win in a landslide, and end the Reagan revolution, but that doesn’t seem very likely.
In the meantime, here’s someone who doesn’t share your negative opinion of Ryan’s proposals:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-gop-house-issues-conference
What a surprise!
RE; “The first, which pre-dates his ascension to the chair of the House Budget Committee, was a ridiculous conservative fantasy that slashed taxes and increased deficits by something like $60 trillion over time.”
Why is it a conservative fantasy? Slashing taxes and increasing deficits is entirely consistent with Modern Monetary Theory and will bring prosperity immediately.
“The author, Professor Lakoff, is right. Monetary Sovereignty must be backed by facts but it cannot be sold with facts alone. It must be framed and it must be repeated. Rather than focusing on government finances, the frame should be personal finances.
The U.S. government has sold $11 trillion worth of investments, and this year, the economy is running a $1.2 trillion profit. Based on the size of our economy, it needs more profit than that to grow. And, to increase profit requires more tax reductions and increased federal spending.
Rodger Malcolm Mitchell” from
http://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com/2012/08/09/did-you-know-the-economy-is-running-a-1-2-trillion-personal-profit/
Unless young people learn Monetary Sovereignty and understand that
“Social Security is a federal agency. If you go on line to federal agencies, you will see a list of about 650 agencies. Not one ever has gone bankrupt. Not one ever has bounced a check. Yet, only two of these agencies is “supported by” (actually, limited by) FICA or by any other tax collection: Social Security and Medicare.
Why was this limit placed on Social Security and Medicare? Both programs were created when the U.S. government was monetarily non-sovereign. So, Congress needed to be convinced these two programs wouldn’t cost anything, and that these two programs were like private insurance policies, in which people paid for the benefits they received. That was the only way to get Congress to create Social Security and later, Medicare.
Today, because the U.S. now is Monetarily Sovereign, FICA not only is useless, and financially harmful, but it creates the wrong impression about Social Security finances. Because of FICA, some people believe Social Security will run out of money. ”
http://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com/2012/03/26/monetary-sovereignty-for-young-people-part-4-social-security/