It’s hard to even pack all of the falsehoods in Niall Ferguson’s Newsweek cover story into one post, so I’ll have to outsource some of this.
First of all, the thing to know is that Niall Ferguson is always wrong about economics. I mean with remarkable consistency. He has been spooked by imminent hyperinflation fears for four years, despite all evidence to the contrary. He still believes that half of all Americans pay no taxes, because only federal income taxes count, I guess. And he continues to believe that Paul Ryan represents a serious figure willing to get tough on the federal budget, which also happens to be wrong. I could also add the part where Ferguson blames Obama for increasing the deficit and then blames him for failing to tackle the fiscal cliff, on the grounds that it would reduce the deficit, but Noah Smith has you covered there.
But the most egregious problem with Ferguson’s article is what Paul Krugman unearthed. Ferguson writes:
The president pledged that health-care reform would not add a cent to the deficit. But the CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation now estimate that the insurance-coverage provisions of the ACA will have a net cost of close to $1.2 trillion over the 2012–22 period.
See what he did there? Ferguson looks at only the spending side of the ACA and concludes that it raised the deficit, erasing the revenue-raising side out of existence. He’s basically saying that the subsidies in the Affordable Care Act will cost money. This is his entire argument.
We’re not talking about ideology or even economic analysis here — just a plain misrepresentation of the facts, with an august publication letting itself be used to misinform readers. The Times would require an abject correction if something like that slipped through. Will Newsweek?
Ferguson’s rebuttal is even stupider:
I very deliberately said “the insurance coverage provisions of the ACA,” not “the ACA.” There is a big difference.
Krugman suggests that I haven’t read the CBO’s March 2010 report. Sorry, I have, and here is what it says:
“The provisions related to health insurance coverage—which affect both outlays and revenues—were projected to have a net cost of $1,042 billion over the 2012–2021 period; that amount represents a gross cost to the federal government of $1,390 billion, offset in part by $349 billion in receipts and savings (primarily revenues from penalties and other sources).”
But thanks for trying, Paul….
This is just a restatement of Krugman’s point. None of that takes into account the non-insurance coverage provisions of the ACA, aka the revenue-raising provisions. The $716 billion in “Medicare cuts” that everyone’s tittering about is part of that; those are not calculated in this circumscribed piece that Ferguson is using as the basis of his claim.
I don’t really care whether Niall Ferguson or anyone else wants to support a particular candidate for President. I care about the lying employed to make that case. And it’s very clear that Ferguson repeatedly misrepresents the truth on these matters; he has tenure at Harvard and a big platform for his misrepresentations, and an agenda to cut social insurance spending besides. As Kevin Drum says, at least people are talking about it, right Tina Brown?
More from Brad DeLong, Joe Weisenthal and James Fallows.




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Appointments at the full professor level at Harvard have to be approved by the president.
(This is formally true at many universities, but at Harvard is no mere formality.)
I’m sure you can’t guess who was president when Ferguson was hired in 2004.
That’s Tina Brown’s whole point. Remember the Willard cover from a few weeks ago? The faster Newsweek folds, the better.
Larry Summers?
You beat me to it. I was wondering when Ferguson got appointed to the Harvard faculty.
Krugman handled this neatly today.
Different regions get different Newsweek editions. Mine has the author of the cover story listed as Joe Isuzu.
My grandpa always said, “It’s funny how few horses there are in the world and how many horses asses.”
You can’t make this shit up. oh wait…..
David, any chance you could post some video of your typing speed? Absolutely on fire today!
Sounds like some of that “fuzzy math.”
Ah yes, Newsweek million dollar propaganda gift to the right. Ferguson’s lies become the “on the one hand” repeated ad nauseum by the fair and balanced media. Set in media hype stone even if eventually proved untrue.
First of all, since when is Newsweek an “august publication”? It’s the kind of pablum that gets read in the doctor’s office if you aren’t into the celebrity gossip offered by People and are too old for Highlights.
Second, I don’t think there is any reason to read Ferguson at all because I suspect he is a shill. I imagine it happened like this. He started out as an historian. And his early work–the stuff that got him noticed–is worth reading. I found it thought-proviking, anyway. Well, as you all may know, there is about zero money and prestige in being an historian. But, like for many folks who have talent and ambition, the devil comes knocking: “Hey Ferguson, I think we can find an outlet for your skills that will bring in a lot more reward than toiling away in a musty, book-littered office in the isolation of an ivory tower. But it’ll cost you your soul.” Which for an academic is to say their intellectual integrity and capacity for honest, public thought. Ferguson took the deal. And good for him. But it means that he should no longer be regarded as having anything useful to say.
Sad to say, far too many of my trad-Dem voter pals still see Newseek as, uh, factual or something. I was never a huge fan of either Time or Newsweek, as they were always propoganda outlets of the Empire. But back in the day, there was some factual reality to their articles.
Frankly, these days I’d much prefer to read People in my Drs office. At least I KNOW that, with that pub, I AM reading about Hollywood fantasy. It doesn’t pretend to be anything else.
In response to ottogrendel @ 12:
“And good for him.” Please explain. Don’t you advocate that it should not be good for him (no one should bother reading or attending to him?)
Ha! I mean if Ferguson took the deal with the devil on the road to status, that’s his business.
Here comes a crappy comparison. Leonardo DiCaprio did a great job in “What’s Eating Gilbert Grape.” It got him the high salary blockbuster gigs that followed, all of which I think sucked, but I’m sure paid better. (It was all I could do to keep from yelling at the screen at the end of “Titanic” when he is in the water out of the lifeboat: “Sink faster, you lame son of a bitch!” So I don’t pay attention to him anymore. Same goes for Ferguson.
“good for him,”: A safely ensconced retirement with 18 holes at the back door.
I remember the first article he wrote for Newsweek and I thought he was an idiot then. Nothing changed.
Harvard should be ashamed. Ferguson’s stuff is offal. His book on WWI was utter nonsense and like Newsweek article, distorted the facts.
Please tell me this propagandist is no less than two degrees separated from Richard Dawkins.
Ferguson was part of the fund-raising apparatus. He appeals to rich old Harvard grads who give loads of money. He doesn’t do any teaching, and apart from his Ph.D. dissertation his research in economic history is for shit. He is also a personal shit (but I guess most people know that).
Yep.
Harvard whores. The school sold out to the neocons & neolibs quite awhile ago. It is no longer a school regarded any way but ROFLMAO. One of the reasons they are now called the Poison Ivy League. 1%ers own them.
I read the newsweek article and thought it made a lot of good points, some of them can be rebutted as we’ve already done, but what about the drone attacks? . . . and President Obama’s indecisiveness? plus the whole ACA how can you support a overhaul in the health insurance industry and say it’ll be better and cheaper and everyone will have coverage, and it turns out 23 million will still be uninsured?