Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke is giving a closely watched speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming at an annual economic symposium. And I can summarize this speech for you in metaphor.
Water works well at fighting fires.
Everything is on fire.
We may hook up the hose at some point.
Not promising anything.
That’s the sense I get from the speech. Bernanke tries to pull off a mean trick: defending his record while declining to actually continue with the same policies even though we’re in the same economic climate. Either the monetary tools at the zero lower bound worked, or they didn’t. If they worked, we’re still in the position where they would need to be employed. If they didn’t, then Bernanke’s previous record has to be called into question. And you have to ask how they worked when the Fed has missed its inflation and employment targets consistently for the last three years.
In summary, Bernanke said that “the costs of nontraditional policies, when considered carefully, appear manageable, implying that we should not rule out the further use of such policies if economic conditions warrant.” But there’s a wide gulf between not ruling out further use of policies and committing to use them. Frankly, there’s no difference between the economic state right now and where it was four months ago. So if Bernanke thinks that economic conditions could warrant further action, he’s wasted several months of inaction, at great cost to the nation’s unemployed.
In fact, Bernanke says pretty forthrightly that whatever the Fed has done, it hasn’t been enough:
Notwithstanding these positive signs, the economic situation is obviously far from satisfactory. The unemployment rate remains more than 2 percentage points above what most FOMC participants see as its longer-run normal value, and other indicators–such as the labor force participation rate and the number of people working part time for economic reasons–confirm that labor force utilization remains at very low levels. Further, the rate of improvement in the labor market has been painfully slow. I have noted on other occasions that the declines in unemployment we have seen would likely continue only if economic growth picked up to a rate above its longer-term trend.28 In fact, growth in recent quarters has been tepid, and so, not surprisingly, we have seen no net improvement in the unemployment rate since January. Unless the economy begins to grow more quickly than it has recently, the unemployment rate is likely to remain far above levels consistent with maximum employment for some time.
Bernanke blames housing policy (which he has the ability to influence through buying up mortgages), the headwinds of fiscal policy at the federal and state levels (which he has the ability to influence by entering the municipal bond market and saving tens of billions in financing costs) and “stresses in the credit and financial markets (which he had the ability to influence by more aggressive policy taking down the zombie banks). The nontraditional means that would have ameliorated the crisis, however, have been off the table. And so has any tolerance of higher inflation.
But the conclusion is the most insulting portion. He said that the policies he employed at the zero lower bound “can be effective,” that the recession would have been worse and recovery slower without them, but that he stands ready to provide “additional policy accommodation as needed.” It’s needed!
Bernanke isn’t wrong that a basket of policies, monetary and fiscal, offer the best chance to overcome headwinds and get to a recovery. But when you give the alternative, when you understand what Bernanke says, that “persistently high levels of unemployment will wreak structural damage on our economy that could last for many years,” and that we’re already THERE, taking the Fed off the playing field is really unconscionable.
…I don’t know what speech the New York Times was looking at.
…It’s entirely possible this was part of the Fed-speak way to gradually move the institution toward further easing. But even if so, what was defended, and what will be pursued, are the same inadequate steps. To do more would admit failure on the past steps.




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How bad does it have to get before he does spring into action? That is the question I would like someone to ask him. He has that answer from a quantitative perspective, doesn’t he? That’s his job. So he knows when he will act.
Anyway, great post. Thanks.
I think his speech can also be summed up with one sentence “Americans are not suffering enough yet.”
And why do I always get the sense that this guy is a complete figurehead who has no real power and who gets sent out there to give these ridiculous speeches? Why doesn’t he quit this job?
He is told what to do or not to do and then he defends his actions as best he can. DD your analogy is quite apt; in the history of fires water has always worked and in the history of recessions and depressions money has always worked. I believe the policy is make things worse not to hurt Obama (who is doing their bidding) but to make the 99% happy to have anything when the real austerity kicks in.
Even more importantly, Bernanke has (or had) the ability to use the bully pulpit of the Fed chairmanship
to advocate for fiscal stimulus. He chose not to.
Contrast that with Andrea Mitchell’s husband, who was more than happy to go before Congress
and the press to advocate for irresponsible policies.
When you hear more do-nothing, wait-and-see from the Fed, and a bump in Dow Jones (post-speech), you have to get the impression that someone (WallStreet Banksters) are happy with this approach???
BB’s ability to influence the house market at this point is virtually nil. Basically, QE3 could reduce rates a few basis points, but if you want a house and can get through the credit checks to get a loan, you’ll get one. Reducing 30 yr rates from 3.75 to 3.5 won’t really matter.
I agree he could help with the muni bond market, but at what costs? Expanding the Fed’s balance sheet (aka weakening the currency) and running into default risk.
BB can’t do much. He’s at ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) and has only type of ammo left: printing money. Basically, in a balance sheet recession, we should be happy with 1% growth. He’s already doubled the balance sheet. Any new printed money basically helps the banks, gooses the stock market, hurts savers, and doesn’t wind up in the hands of those who need it.
We need to raise taxes on $250K+, shift military spending to long-term infrastructure spending, raise taxes on capital gains and dividends, encourage more manufacturing and less financial speculation, and stop thinking that Ben has a magic cure. He doesn’t.
Banks are sitting on $1.6 T in excess reserves, and collecting a quarter of a percent on them. Some central banks have gone to negative interest on reserves in hopes of getting banks to resume lending. But, savvy commentators have noted that banks that are reluctant to loan could simply convert their reserves to cash. A bit of inflation, however, would make sitting on cash (or low-interest reserves) a losing strategy.
Krugman has repeatedly called for a bit of inflation, but I’ve never properly understood his reasoning.
Very good analysis, IMO, and you know none of those things can happen whomever is elected (unless it was Stein or some other 3rd Party) so another bad recession (formerly called depression in the factual world we used to live in) is already baked in the cake. Spain seems to be a mini model of our future.
A bit of inflation would immediately lower the value of the deficit, in effect lowering it. Letting inflation increase by 1% and repealing the Obama tax cuts for the wealthy would have the immediate effect on the deficit of stopping its rise and actually lowering it. That’s why it will never happen, its bad for bond holders and those sitting on large reserves. It begins to explain why the duopoly is using the deficit to inflict austerity and using easing, which is in itself a vehicle for wealth redistribution upwards.