Republican Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan will begin running ads in the race for his House district in Wisconsin, a potential sign of uneasiness about his re-election, which will probably be interpreted more broadly as a lack of confidence in Mitt Romney’s chances in the Presidential election.
Contracts formalized Tuesday with at least one Milwaukee television station show that Ryan’s congressional ads will start airing Wednesday morning and go initially for two weeks. The Ryan congressional ads start in the same week as presidential ticket mate Mitt Romney’s commercials went on air in Wisconsin, although the cost for the two sets of ads are drawn from different campaign accounts.
Wisconsin law allows Ryan to seek both offices simultaneously but only serve in one if he wins the pair. His Democratic opponent in the state’s 1st District is Rob Zerban, a former county official.
Ryan’s congressional campaign manager Kevin Seifert confirmed that ads defending the seat will run in the Milwaukee and Madison markets. He said Ryan expects to run House ads through the Nov. 6 election. They will be paid for with a Ryan campaign fund that brimmed with more than $5.4 million as of late July.
It’s true that the $5.4 million in Ryan’s campaign account does him no good for the Presidential election (though he could donate it to efforts to elect House Republicans or individual Republican candidates), so he might as well spend it. Indeed, Joe Biden ran a one-minute spot in October 2008, when he was running for US Senate simultaneously with the Presidential election (against Christine O’Donnell, I should point out). But that was a late-season biographical spot in a race that everyone knew he would have no problem winning. It never even mentioned the Senate election. Ryan is starting an ad buy over 50 days before the election and planning to run it through to Election Day.
That has to be a sign of some discomfort with his chances at re-election in the district. Unlike O’Donnell, Ryan’s opponent, Rob Zerban, a former Kenosha County board member, actually has a legitimate campaign apparatus. He has raised over $1.2 million so far this election cycle. He has been a high-profile presence in progressive media. And he’s been active in the district, most recently demanding debates with Ryan.
What’s true is that Ryan was probably helped a lot by partisan redistricting in Wisconsin. The old WI-01 was a swing district; this version, after the 2010 Census, was made more red. However, the Daily Kos election resource shows that the district is in exactly the same position relative to how it voted in 2008. Then, it went 51-48 for Obama; despite the change in the district lines, it’s still a 51-48 Obama seat.
Wisconsin is probably more red in general at the national level in 2012; the Romney campaign is contesting it, whereas it was generally not contested in 2008, and won by Obama in a relative walk. In addition, the spots out of the Ryan account can serve as spots for the top of the ticket, giving a few million extra dollars on the air for Romney-Ryan spots that the campaign doesn’t have to pay for. So that could be the ad strategy.
It would be a lot more understandable if we had actual polling here. According to Steve Singiser, the most recent poll of this district showed Ryan up 53-32, with Zerban closing to 49-43 after an “informed ballot test,” which is where information about the two candidates is given, and then the polling redone. The problem here is that this poll, an internal from the Zerban campaign, was taken December 2011. It tells us nothing about the race right now. That’s especially true as Ryan has become a high-profile figure, for good and for ill. We don’t know how his district reacted to that.
But presumably Ryan does. And these ads could be a way to counteract any slippage. The best way to figure this out is with a new poll. Somebody get on that.




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There is no good way to spin this. The Zombie-eyed Granny-starver was always given a pass by the Democrats before now, and they still are. It’s the grassroots that’s taken up the Zerban cause. Moreso now that Ryan is Willard’s VP choice. Is Wisconsin really ready to fire Ryan twice? I hope so.
David,
One question I have not been able to answer is: who / how will a Ryan replacement be made if Ryan wins both elections? If it is a Walker choice, that should be concerning to people around here.
I believe that what Ryan is doing is called pulling a Lieberman as in Joe Lieberman during the 2000 election.
The Republicans were hoping for an enormous convention bounce and now their only opportunity remaining is the debates. But they know that neither Republican candidate stands a chance to reasonably debate either Democratic one. Personal opinions about Obama/Biden aside, one has to recognize that both Rmoney and Paul Ryan have been lying so long that they won’t be able to credibly engage in any face to face debate format. Barring some unforeseen catastrophe, they’ve lost this election so now Ryan is trying to hedge his bets.
Not a vote of confidence in the Mittster, but at least Ryan didn’t take out a life insurance policy on him.
His seat would remain empty until a Special Election can be called. Walker would set the date of the special election.
Does that mean his current opponent would automatically be the Democratic candidate for the special election?
So he files to run for both seats in the same election????
I had to watch this 5 times to even understand the lying logic of Paul Ryan.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/10/norah-odonnell-paul-ryan-defense-spending_n_1870369.html?ir=Media
Norah O’Donnell Grills Paul Ryan Over Defense Spending Cuts (VIDEO)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/11/paul-ryan-tv-ads-house_n_1874699.html
Paul Ryan To Go Up With Television Ads For His House Seat
Do the Wisc. voters spin it that “he’s just not that into us?” One way to see it when he thought he had a better offer, seems to me. Let alone, a flop with wider exposure.
Yeah, but let’s face it, people who vote for him on the presidential ticket aren’t going to not vote for him as congressman.
But Petey can run a sub 3 hour marathon, why not vote for him. Betcha he could run all the way to Illinois.
“Wisconsin law allows Ryan to seek both offices simultaneously but only serve in one if he wins the pair. ”
Just for the sake of argument, lets say the Mutt and Ryan win the national and Ryan wins his congressional. Could Ryan then decline to accept the vice-presidency and keep his congressional thus allowing Mutt to name a VP all on his own? Like oh… John Bolton? Or Erskine Bowles?
Well isn’t that something. No wonder we can’t get rid of this “yahoos”. He gets to run for both seats. The small government guy is too scared of losing his Government paycheck so he is campaigning for both. Why doesn’t he go with Romney to Bain Capital if he loses. These bastards want no Government for you and I but what ever is left over they want for themselves.
Sorry, system goofed up…
Texas law was changed so LBJ could run for his senate seat and vice president in 1960.
A-hem….Let’s just say the Ryan is not LBJ…..Is that an under-statement or what?
This race is over, and the Zombie-eyed Granny-starver knows it. Not only does HE know it, get a load of conservative media these days. They are tripping over themselves shoving everyone in sight under the bus.
I love the smell of exploding GOP heads in the morning (particularly if it’s ‘Morning’ Joe!)
Why not Pete Peterson or Rahm Emmanuel?
I’ve seen another ad Paul put up. Lost. The Truth. If you find it call Paul Ryan
555-1212. Big Reward. I’ll tell you how much after you give me the truth. Trust Me.
Paul Ryan, aka Eddie Muenster, appears headed for the curd pile while Mittster is headed for the manure pile that produced the curds and other cheesy by-products of this rancid election cycle. The udder idea that Wisconsin goes red will certainly have OhMama crying over potentially spilled milk in the Senate race, too. And I always thought the 60′s maxim of ” think left, act right ” started in Mad Town. Maybe Ben Sidran is still singing old songs for the new depression but he needs to get Wisconsinites to change their tunes. And pronto. After all, those cheese heads more resemble ” stinky cheese ” after the Left Coast got done with’em this weekend. It’s being headlined the 49/Beavers toss off the Buggers/Packers. Salad not included.
I’d suggest that the more important “sign of trouble” in this POTUS election is that Obama is going to win…
Golly it would be great if Rob Zerban, abandoned by the poobahs at the DCCC, won this Congressional seat. I know Blue America has been working hard to get him elected. Pretty sure I sent him some money earlier this year; may have to send a little more if I can.
“Personal opinions about Obama/Biden aside, one has to recognize that both Rmoney and Paul Ryan have been lying so long…”
The fact of Obama’s relentless, bald-faced lies and the damage done by his treasonous, criminal behavior is not “personal opinion” and should not be put aside just so you can pretend that you, ms. manners, are the most fair minded person in the world.
meh…
Bless your heart
Rob Zerban is an actual, bona fide, for real small businessman.
http://www.salon.com/2012/09/03/rob_zerban_ryan_born_with_a_silver_spoon/
I agree with you.
The two major parties appear to be having a contest to see who can pass off the most lies onto the electorate.
The problem for Romney is that I think the voters prefer the liar they know to the liar that they are unfamiliar with.
Either way is lose-lose though. Pretending either of the two candidates at the top of the ticket have not lied through their teeth is not intellectually honest.
Is it possible that these two were chosen because anyone even slightly decent might actually have a chance of winning the election?
That’s my theory.
Makes sense if you think that the whole thing is a charade, and that Obama is “the more effective evil”.