A tragedy in Libya provoked by a film insulting Islam has turned into an attempt by Mitt Romney to take umbrage with the White House.
The US Ambassador to Libya and three other Americans were killed in Benghazi at an attack on the US consulate, hit by a rocket-propelled grenade as they tried to flee. The attackers in Benghazi followed the lead of protesters at the US Embassy in Cairo, Egypt, who pulled down the US flag and tried to burn it. What was the impetus for these attacks? An amateur anti-Islam film promoted by Pastor Terry Jones, the man whose efforts to burn a Koran caused similar unrest against Western interests in Afghanistan, leading to the deaths of several UN workers. How Jones has this incredible reach into the Arab world is beyond me. But he does, and it has led to a terrible bout of violence in two of the main countries touched by the Arab spring.
Both the Egyptian and Libyan governments condemned the violence outside the American diplomatic compounds. But local security officials in both countries appeared slow to provide protection for the American diplomatic installations, and have issued no firm statements explaining the violence or expressing strong concern.
The incidents raised the question of to what extent governments in countries where suspicions of the United States run high are willing or able to provide security for American diplomats.
Before the extent of the violence was fully known, when the protests hit the streets but not the embassies, the US State Department sent out a tweet condemning “the continuing efforts by misguided individuals to hurt the religious feelings of Muslims — as we condemn efforts to offend believers of all religions.” Once the protests ended in the deaths of Americans, Mitt Romney decided that was the official response of the US government, and let loose with this:
I’m outraged by the attacks on American diplomatic missions in Libya and Egypt and by the death of an American consulate worker in Benghazi. It’s disgraceful that the Obama Administration’s first response was not to condemn attacks on our diplomatic missions, but to sympathize with those who waged the attacks.
Here’s President Obama’s actual initial statement after the attacks became known.
I strongly condemn the outrageous attack on our diplomatic facility in Benghazi, which took the lives of four Americans, including Ambassador Chris Stevens. Right now, the American people have the families of those we lost in our thoughts and prayers. They exemplified America’s commitment to freedom, justice, and partnership with nations and people around the globe, and stand in stark contrast to those who callously took their lives.
The President then said that security would be increased at diplomatic posts worldwide, and added this: “While the United States rejects efforts to denigrate the religious beliefs of others, we must all unequivocally oppose the kind of senseless violence that took the lives of these public servants.” The timeline of events has been confirmed by the State Department.
I know that politics doesn’t end at the water’s edge anymore, but exploiting a tragedy by shifting around the timeline is pretty weak. There’s probably more to say about the intensity of these attacks, the location of them, and what that means. But it’s about 100 miles away from faking a claim that the White House is “apologizing for America.”
…Incidentally, the White House isn’t helping matters by disavowing a statement from the Cairo Embassy delivered before the violence began.




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There is no need to exploit what happened. This IS the October Surprise.
Coupled with yesterday’s embassy statement–like a wife who just got beat up by her husband apologizing for not having been nice to him, that is the end.
No need to exploit, it speaks volumes on its own.
Wow. You see that this has happened, and you zero in on the problem as . . . Romney?
“by a film insulting Islam”
ideas cannot be insulted; only people can be.
I wonder about his influence on this one. That movie has been available for viewing for some time now; it did not come out in the last couple days. This incident occurred on 9-11, and the “protesters” were carrying a black flag associated with Al Qaeda and scrawling Osama’s name on the embassy wall. The movie connection here seems more like an excuse than anything else.
Hillary, warmonger against Muslim, is on presstv making one of the most disgusting statements I have yet heard. No context, like U.S. makes unprovoked and illegal wars against over a dozen Muslim countries, killing millions, and they are not allowed to kill 4 in retaliation.
“How can this happen in a country we helped liberate, in a city we saved from destruction.”
It’s not as though U.S. embassies haven’t been attacked before. I can think of half a dozen right off.
Hillary condemning violence is really rich.
Oh booo hooo hooo. They are so cruel to do that to U.S. on 9/11. It hurt Hillary’s widdle feelings.
How’s that kinetic humanitarian action going for you, Obama?
Reap what you illegally and unconstitutionally sew. Anything that happens in Libya is on Obama, because that war was his baby; he didn’t need no stinkin’ Congressional approval. He waged it all on his own.
Obama:
“I strongly condemn the outrageous attack…”
Maybe Libyans strongly condemn your outrageous attack, too, Obama.
And Romney is the one we should focus on? Words fail.
Sounds like Hillary’s first campaign speech of the 2016 election.
With all due respect to the families of those killed in this incident, why is this such a surprise? Agree with eCAHN. We wage deliberate WAR Inc directly onto Muslims. What can be expected? The amazing thing is that there’s not more such incidents.
I could give a shit what RMoney or DMoney “says.” That’s all bogus bullshit anyway.
I question whether that idiotic nasty bigoted “Preacher’s” “movie” had anything to do with this incident. Seems like a big reeeaaaacccchhh to me to blame it on him (not that he doesn’t deserve it), when really it’s Team USA FUCK YOU UP who’s out there killing hundreds of thousands of Muslims ongoingly. Let’s get a grip here.
Death & destruction v. an assinine movie?
Oh really??
You forget the first rule of lefty blogs. Everything that happens everywhere in the world all the time is about the U.S., esp the U.S. election.
There was also an anti-Islamic movie on UK Channel 4 and UK embassies weren’t attacked. After all, the Brit bulldog is only a junior partner.
Romney is a rotting cancer on the body politic of America…there is NOTHING he will say, no matter how ignorant or evil, to further his criminal campaign. He will lose and he will be forgotten by history, except as an example of dishonest campaigning.
Isn’t that the rule of ALL US blogs, no matter what their political leaning, not to mention ALL US media, whether corp-owned or not?
We are such self-centered, know-nothing morans.
Pearl Harbor 4 or 5?
Point taken.
(Swipe was deliberate, if you catch my drift.)
the guy is an American/Israeli with PNAC dollars
she must have high levels of testosterone imo
Hmmm. I wonder if the RPG that they now say hit the ambassador’s car had a DoD bar code on it.
Let me get this straight. An Israeli-American filmaker, named Sam Bacile, financed by 100 Jewish backers makes a film that represents Muhammad with an actor and accuses him of pedophilia. (How more blasphemous can one get?) The movie get promoted by an Egytian-American vehemently anti-Muslim Christian named Morris Sadek. The movie is made in California in three weeks. The promotion is an unattributed YouTube that goes viral, gets translated into Arabic. The entrepreneurial preacher Terry Jones who threatened to burn Korans posts it on September 11 and it goes viral again.
The reaction is that in Egypt, a bunch of people attack the US embassy waving the Islamic black flag of battle. (Mislabeled in the Western media as an “al Quaeda” flag.) Even after the embassy had tweeted an apology and condemnation of the movie.
In Libya, a radical group believed to be Ansar-al-Sharia attacks the US consulate with rocket-propelled grenades during a demonstration similar to the one in Egypt–and just coincidentally on the day that the ambassador is visiting the consulate, killing him.
Romney prequels the attacks with his statement blaming Obama for apologizing for America.
Netanyahu is chest-beating about Iran, and his good buddy Sheldon Adelson has been bankrolling the Romney campaign to eight-figure sums.
Which raises the question. Was Sheldon Adelson one of the 100 Jewish businessmen who financed Sam Bacile’s movie?
And coincidentally, Israel has been talking about the scary Moslem Brotherhood government in Egypt and the Egyptian Salafists are frustrated an not getting a completely Islamic state. And Ansar-al-Sharia in Libya shares the same frustration.
And Republicans are going to amp up the fear of al Quaeda, with Obama weakly echoing “I think so too.”
Talk about an overdetermined event. One wonders how it could have been avoided in this election season.
yup another false flag operation gone awry
hmmmm… why does the term “false-flag” enter my mind??
hmmmm… why does it also enter my mind that the PTB don’t give a shit about the “collateral damage” of anything they do?
Just a low level of brains & not the common sense of the day she was born.
Last I heard on the hormone research, there is no rel betw level of hormones & behaviors or skills. Comes from IOC that, like all corrupt orgs, tested some female star athletes for testosterone & used results to blackball one or two. Further testing showed that women had varying levels of testosterone & it was unrelated to any particular prowess.
Multiple false-flag operations.
With respect, I disagree. I totally do NOT think this false flag went “awry.” I think it went the way it was meant to go. If some US citizens end up dead: win-win.
Think I’m callous or joking? I may be cynical but I’m dead serious.
How much more *effective* is it when some high ranking WHITE MAN gets himself dead at the hands of the alleged “Al Qaeda terrorists” and on 9/11, to boot.
As they say down south: why hooooow nice.
yep.
Getting involved in “discussions” about He said, He said – vis putative “candidates” for US POTUS – is, IMO, utterly bogus. I don’t give a shit what either those two empty suits said.
Read between the lines, my friends. Read it and weep.
Yes. I get it. Read ya loud ‘n clear.
Palestinians join in the U.S. flag burning.
and who can blame them?
did RMONEY just upstage the President on a matter of foreign policy?
Yes, I agree. Hillary condemning violence is really rich.
Do you suppose those who attacked the US consulate might be having a laugh about it, like Hillary did when Qaddafi was killed ?
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20123348-503544/clinton-on-qaddafi-we-came-we-saw-he-died/
What goes around, comes around, Hillary, you cruel, cackling warmonger.
Bwahahahaha
As for false flag, I can wait to see what action U.S. takes before jumping to that conclusion.
Hillary’s statement was certainly designed to further inflame anti-U.S. sentiment.
Thanks for that trip down memory lane. Forgotten that.
interesting,so her and Mad Albright just evil
wow,she is colder than ice
Wasn’t Benghazi the city controlled by our Al Qaeda allies that Obomber used as an excuse to begin randomly bombing Libyan civilians? Terry Jones??? A whack job in a tiny church in the Confederacy gets “credit” for this from an internet video no one’s seen? As closely as U.S. intelligence has worked with these groups, is the timing really coincidental?
I agree with eCAHNomics except I think Hillobeans first campaign speech of 2016 was ‘ol Slick Willie at the Dims dog and pony show in Charlotte.
Yep. Power crazed evil people.
You know how fond I am of pointing out that half of what docs know is not correct, they just don’t know which half.
That testosterone thing is part of the half that is incorrect.
This plan worked out perfectly for the nimrods that paid for and made this POS movie.
well get that 11 dimensional chess board out ,andPUAC
yup 5 million 5,000,000.00 was quickly put up…if i was the Ambassadors wife id be getting a good lawyer
This is an unfortunate tragedy for the families of the ambassador and other employees of the US consulate but, below the surface, all talk of cry and shame is bullshit.
Why is this “pastor Indiana Jones” walking around free? His ass should have been thrown in jail a long time ago for inciting violence. After all, this is what is being done to other U.S. citizens who are part of honest and legit antiwar, occupy or jail the banksters movements.
Besides, never mind ability to provide protection to the embassies, at this time there is hardly an established government in countries like Egypt and Libya. And don’t forget the hypocrisy of providing protection to embassies only when we become the victims. Does anyone remember about a month ago British government was threatening to raid Ecuadorian embassy in London to kidnap Julian Assange? I don’t think there was a single statement from the U.S. government that would condemn such an illegal act. In fact the U.K. government appeared to have gone rouge to please the U.S. government. We should not be doing to others what we would not like to be done to us and our embassies.
Hillary’s rhetoric is just like the talking points used to justify bombing Serbs, and subsequently about how “we” (fantastically good-guy U.S.ians) save the Muslims while building one of the biggest U.S. military bases in central Europe, much closer to Russia.
U.S. embassies attacked: Islamabad, Beirut, Tehran, Nairobi, Dar es Saalam, and that’s just off the top of my head.
Gross.
That’s a joke, right? With all due respect, “Pastor Indiana Jones” is performing *exactly* as the PTB want him to: inciting violence. No doubt, the “Pastor” will get a kick-back on this one for a job well done. No, that’s not snark. Read between the lines.
The timing is impeccable? I smell a dead rat here. The same stench in the air after 911? After Gulf of Tonkin? After yellow cake uranium? I pray I’m wrong…
Another sad day for America, those who lost loved ones and those who died.
You don’t think this will backfire on the filmmaker & friends?
Yes, alan. It is ALL Gross, including TEAM USA FUCK YOU UP killing hundreds of thousands of Muslims, including many women and kids. Isn’t that “gross,” too? Or is that just business as usual??
No shit? Why just US? I smell a rat…….
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/08/us/politics/mitt-romney-and-benjamin-netanyahu-are-old-friends.html
April 7, 2012
A Friendship Dating to 1976 Resonates in 2012
By MICHAEL BARBARO
The two young men had woefully little in common: one was a wealthy Mormon from Michigan, the other a middle-class Jew from Israel.
But in 1976, the lives of Mitt Romney and Benjamin Netanyahu intersected, briefly but indelibly, in the 16th-floor offices of the Boston Consulting Group, where both had been recruited as corporate advisers. At the most formative time of their careers, they sized each other up during the firm’s weekly brainstorming sessions, absorbing the same profoundly analytical view of the world.
That shared experience decades ago led to a warm friendship, little known to outsiders, that is now rich with political intrigue.
I have no idea. Just adding complications.
One of the problems with analyzing an event like is is that it’s so headline grabbing it tends to create tunnel vision.
When I first heard about Egypt yesterday, I thought it related to the UK movie, which has been featured on presstv for several days.
Tunisians protesting.
I’m lost here. Who are we going to bomb for this? Pick a card. Any card.
he is competing with Beck and Limpballs for far less $$$
not to worry,the best biz in theUSA (munitions) is gearing up for all needs
Does it matter as long as they’re dusky-hued Muslims?? Esp if they have some resources that our 1% greedily covets??
That’s what I’m kind of waiting to see.
Yep. That’s why the PTB probably love this assinine jerk. He’s a cheap date but gets the job accomplished.
Meanwhile, bombs have been targeted at new prez of Somalia, who apparently escaped harm, and some high official in Yemen, leaving 12 dead and the target injured, if not dead.
Certainly on the filmmaker, Sam Bacile–he’s in hiding, limiting his contact with the media. Morris Sedak? Anyone tracked him down for a statement? The 100 Jewish investors in the movie? Will anyone get the list and expose them? Is Sheldon Adelson one of them? Terry Jones? He’ll get media attention and enough donations to keep him going; then back into obscurity until he can think of the next outrage.
The film was made by an Israeli… just sayin’…
For this? No one. The Egyptian and Libyan governments will move to “restore order” and “bring the bad guys to justice”. They see Pakistan. And they’re no fools.
Just one? Why just one???????
Your response to Hillary was the same as mine. I turned on the TV this morning to find her on every channel asking god to continue blessing America. I thought to myself, if there were a god, he’d wipe us off the face of the earth. Her speech was stunning in its hubris and hypocrisy.
It’s more detailed evidence that just that. See my comment @21.
Also, the NYT reports today that Mitt and Bibi have been close friends since 1976.
Why don’t people like us?????? Don’t we pay them enough???????
Well THAT would explain a lot.
Good point. We make really neat bombs. Do you ever watch the Military Channel?? We can put a guided smart bomb through the right side passenger window of your car from 50 miles away and they only cost $2.5 million a piece.
Adding interesting OffT complication to ME situation.
Jordan, U.S. & Israeli BFF, is trying to start up a nuke power plant project.
I didn’t know that.
Recent development is that Abdullah is claiming that Israel is racing around ahead of Jordan, getting every country to refuse to cooperate in selling needed equipment or whatever Abdullah may be negotiating for.
Bears watching.
hmmmm…. interesting, indeed. keep us posted as you learn more.
@TarheelDem… good points… I always wonder why even on MSNBC that its neven mentioned the things Anderson funds in Israeli. He is always just described as Pro-Israel at best and not a racist hate monger.
Another complication in ME is recent NAM meeting in Tehran. I have been noodling on how important that was. Being a new topic for me, I didn’t want to jump to conclusion that it was new to the world.
I thought it was significant.
Thierry Meyssan, French ME expert, seems to have come away with same opinion I had. It represented a first step in organized oppo to U.S. global hegemony.
Not that it means it will go anywhere or have any success, but something else to watch.
We know that the MOTU were down with letting 3000 Americans die eleven years ago. What is a few more in service of the demonic need for more power/oil/riches? And if you kill a few more Muslims at the same time, why not go for it? Cue the wingnuts and dems to begin the pretend fight.
I will. I think reporting on this will not be frequent, so wouldn’t expect to get new info very often.
Related to 74, Abdullah apparently attended NAM.
Not the right ones apparently ;-)
Yesterday was not about Romney.
One would think that in recent years State would have pondered how to better protect embassies in that part of the world. Maybe they did so, and rejected anything visible and appearing impregnable as offensive to the locals. Instead of sending a bad message that way, a concrete wall with a flat, walkable top is all you get. Too bad about that, in hindsight, yet again.
When I was briefly stationed in the Philippines 40 years ago I lived off base in a secure compound. It was low tech but effective stuff. Thick, high concrete walls had a steeply inclined top sloped like the top on an obelisk. No one could walk there, and there was nothing to sling a rope around. Furthermore, there was a lot of broken glass imbedded in the concrete top with points projecting outward, and concertina wire was discreetly rigged on the down (inside) side of the top. The protection was out of view from passersby, yet it was effective and mob-proof. None of the locals objected that I can recall.
Yesterday should not have been possible, period.
Moroccans protesting.
Non-aligned movement always has been organized oppo to US (and the US bete-noire-du-jour). Abdullah is close friends with a ex-CIA, now intelligence contracting executive; they used to take motorcycle trips together (according the the ex-CIA guy).
Is the Ben Ghazi consulate a building that the US has held for a long time or is it a recent acquisition? The Egyptian embassy was relatively secure. Also, the attack on Ben Ghazi was with rocket-propelled grenades. How likely is it that a recently acquired facility would be that hardened? State likely has budget issues in getting facilities hardened. Cannot do all of them at once. Especially after the Iraqi embassy boondoggle.
Algerians would be a excuse to change regimes. Morocco protests could be sponsored by Moroccan King Mohammed, for that matter, just to take the pressure off. Of late, his strategy has be co-opting protests.
The plan is to lock the barn door after the horse is gone.
Philippines has had anti-U.S. movement since 1899. I suppose there have been multiple attacks on U.S. embassy there in the century+ of U.S. hegemony. Why, here’s one earlier this year.
The two that were bombed in Africa had little protection until after the fact.
Besides, Benghazi was a consulate, not an embassy.
Anyhoo, the concept that the U.S. has to fortify its embassies bc they hate us for our freedoms already speaks volumes.
The article says that NAM fell apart after USSR did. Attempted revival by Castro in 2006 failed owing to lack of funds. Article didn’t mention whether there was a 2009 attempt to have a meeting, but presumably not, to the one that just closed in Tehran is something new & different.
I’m not surprised to hear that Abdullah would have CIA connections, which makes his attendance at NAM more significant (unless his job there was spying).
But on second thought, he wouldn’t have to spy for CIA at NAM since Iran tv coverage was extensive.
Egyptians scaled the Cairo embassy wall.
RPG attack in Benghazi was on the car they were in as they tried to escape.
I don’t know how long, but security would be job one regardless. They shouldn’t have a staffed site without such. Rockets aren’t something that can be prevented. Mobs can be stopped, though, and it seems the long standing Cairo embassy might as well have just left the gates open and unguarded.
BTW I mentioned that the Phillipines compound’s protection was out of sight from passersby. The high wall was of course visible — but not the glass or wire on top.
Maybe if we harden from mobs better, there’ll be a lot more rockets instead.
Maybe we should simply stop killing people. Really, the solution is easy. Stop killing people.
I think there are going to be mass demonstrations across Libya this evening:
In Cairo, the protesters were contained. There is a fine political line between being prudently secure and being perceived as hostilely secure. Hopefully there is enough flexibility in embassy architecture to allow the embassy staff to be outside of the hostilely secure zone.
Thanks for these details.
Probably not the only CIA-connected head-of-state there.
I wouldn’t be he slightest bit surprised.
The attacks, themselves, are a consequence of our conduct in the Middle East as you suggest.
However, the success of breaching the Cairo embassy is a separate issue and about security. If you’re going to have embassies (or consulates, for that matter) in a hostile part of the world they have to be better fortified. That part isn’t about who made whom angry for decades.
I haven’t heard a complete rundown on Benghazi yet. Was it rockets alone? Yet the pictures look like the site would also be mob-friendly.
Jeebus Christ. What an assortment of righteous bullshitters.
Of course you have to harden the targets.
My point was that the U.S. does that only after the vulnerability has been demonstrated, which seems pretty silly.
Mitt claimed a strong friendship with Bibi back during the primaries but Netanyahu denied it saying that they didn’t work in the same area and that, while he knew Mitt, they never socialized together.
Of course, that could just be the PM trying to not rile up voters against Mitt who are in opposition to the more right wing elements of Israel’s political spectrum.
maybe one of the passengers in the car was al qaeda and the ambassador was “collateral damage?” is there a significant difference between drone or rpg death? except rpg is much more cost effective –esp when us gives gov’ts money to buy them. /s
I wondered up above if the RPG still had its DoD bar code attached.
Care to explain?
It’s an afterthought following 60 years of pissing people off. I’m thinking back just as far as our coup d’etat in Iran.
When in doubt, go to the wikilist.
It seems like there might be a pattern. Funny how DoS doesn’t seem to have noticed.
And that list does not even include Tehran, lord knows why. Perhaps bc it was students, not terriss?
It also seems that the U.S. embassy in Libya (Tripoli, not consulate in Benghazi) was already destroyed once, in 1979.
What, you haven’t noticed the covert endorsement here at FDL?
*wink, wink-nudge, nudge*
eCHAN @ 98
yes, your comment probably was an influence as i found your work throughout the thread very enlightening. Thanks!
i really appreciate the reports on your “research projects.” esp. interesting KBR’s military base in bosnia. think i heard the other day about Bosnia now “independent” i.e. “you’re on your own. Serb pres doesn’t recognize, of course.
Camp Bondsteel is in Kosovo, not Bosnia.
I think the short version of Kosovo’s independence is that it declared itself independent in 2008 but Serbia hasn’t recognized it.
Or something like that.
There’s some complicated U.N. process going on, but that too weedy for me.
I have a personal interest in Kosovo. I know a woman who is Albanian who worked for a U.S. lawyer in Kosovo back in the day. She’s talented with languages and did translation.
That’s how she got to the local college, where I got to know her. She subsequently got a master’s in foreign relations (New School?) and now works for U.N. on women’s issues in developing countries.
I haven’t seen her for years bc she’s rarely in the U.S. But we’re still in email contact & plan to get together when it becomes possible. I have a whole raft of Qs for her.
I was 4 miles away teaching at the Oil Companies School when it happened.
It definitely affected my prospects of becoming a hostage since Ayatollah’s sole ally was Quadaffi.
(I and the school took an extended “vacation” the next day.) *G*
Is that where “Closing the barn door AFTER the horse already escaped” comes from????
I remember seeing a comment of yours from awhile ago about working in Libya.
I’m glad you got out.
Maybe a drone strike with faulty gps coordinates?
Or maybe a drone strike with the correct coordinates?
Wow. Two additional fronts and the GOPhers are behind in the polls. Marines going in. Thinking of their song written long ago–”to the shores of Tripoli.” That should have told us something a long time ago. Have we always used Tripoli to keep the Marines or the war machines in business? Why Tripoli now, still, again? Agree, appears like a set-up and those setting things up are responsible for the deaths.
Re Israel-some papers in Europe refer to the US and Israel “coalition” as ‘USreal.’ No wonder a lot of Europeans don’t like or trust us. Don’t ever want to be part of a coalition with Isreal.
Israel appears to want their gnarly, gripping, bullying, cowardly, and bloody hands on our money and on the throats of our beautiful troops. No war from US for Israel. They may have to be nice to their real neighbors in their actual area and ask them for help. Never made sense to cry to the USA across Europe and across an ocean when they have other neighbors. Israelis needs to live like people in their region. Israel is not Mini-Me America. They are what they are in the sand. Looks like they pout, manipulate and always seem pissed unless they get all their money plus ours too.
LOL.
I think both were reported as car bombs, but don’t take my word.
Where did the arms used originate? Please read the Aug 6 1954 NYT Op-Ed, supporting the overthrow of Mossadegh.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d'%C3%A9tat#U.S._media_coverage
My bold… What bold faced lies put forth by the NYT op-ed
So much for far seeing leaders NYT??????
Mubarak, Shah, Qaddafi, the oil whore’s favorite dictators?
Thnx, JJ.
I was 7 in 1954, and vaguely recall a different world run solely by my parents.
Regarding NYT, it has always been at least somewhat progressive in its day. There were some bad decisions no doubt, but it has always tried. In the midst of the Cold War I can see how that misadventure was condoned. There were simply too many moving parts and no crystal ball.