Yesterday, John Boehner appeared to wave a white flag on talks aimed at resolving the fiscal cliff. Harry Reid reacted to that with disappointment, saying that there’s still time for a deficit reduction deal. But the real endgame – at least for the lame duck session – is coming into focus.
A bipartisan group of senators is negotiating a roughly $55 billion debt “down payment” that would temporarily turn off automatic spending cuts and buy Congress at least six months to work out a bigger deal.
The down payment would be linked to a deficit-reduction framework that would bind committees with jurisdiction over spending and taxes to an action plan, say sources familiar with the negotiations.
If a deal is reached and leaders sign off on it, Congress could approve the plan in a lame-duck session.
You can totally see this happening, right? The $55 billion would be enough to stop the sequester of defense and discretionary cuts for six months. That would give the breathing space needed for a longer discussion. The calculus may change depending on the outcome of the elections. But it’s clearly easier to get to $55 billion than $1.2 trillion, which is the ten-year cost of the sequester.
More troubling is that we don’t know where those $55 billion in cuts will come from. Specifically, will they include any tax increases? So far, all of the deficit reduction agreed to, mainly from the spending cap and the sequester, which would drive down discretionary funding to levels so low that the federal court system would have to stop jury trials because they could not pay the jurors, has come on the spending side of the ledger. Nothing has come from the tax side. Saxby Chambliss, one of the leaders of this “Gang of 8″ effort in the Senate, said that the $55 billion down payment would “not necessarily” include revenues. (The other members of the group are Democrats Mark Warner, Kent Conrad, Dick Durbin and Michael Bennet, with Republicans Chambliss, Mike Crapo, Tom Coburn and Lamar Alexander.)
And then there’s this “binding framework” for a future deficit deal. Now, nothing’s really binding in Congress. But whatever gets decided would probably have to have a bipartisan backing to get through Congress. And we know the President supports a grand bargain. This punts things into the next Congress, the makeup of which is unknown.
Just replacing the trigger with nothing is probably off the table, as the Administration and key Senators seem to want to keep the forcing event for a grand bargain alive.
The only unusual part that may come of this is an extension of the payroll tax cut for six months as well, at least according to Sen. Alexander. Previously, the payroll tax cut was seen as a goner. Alexander alluded to the idea of the debt limit, which is coming up again, being put on hold until June and getting folded into this as well.
The point being, the six-month punt is on the table. And it would only delay, not derail, a grand bargain. In fact it would facilitate it.




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The not so funny thing is that the deficit isn’t even a problem and especially not compared to the unemployment crisis.
Does this mean that Boehner expects to have fewer, and chastised, Tea Partyers in the next Congress?
I see that putting off a grand bargain for six months with a lame duck vote for a small, cuts-only package is something he can get past his unmanageable Tea Caucus. I believe Boehner’s smart enough to know that Romney is going to lose in November. And, he’s enough of a legislator that I suspect he’d LOVE to get “98% of what [he] wanted.” The only thing he gains in terms of passing Grand Bargain legislation by waiting is the possibility that a package he knows won’t pass his Tea Party Caucus roadblock in the lame duck session WILL pass in the new Congress that gets seated next January.
He-he-he.
Rule one of Congress. No law can bind a future Congress to do or not do something. So all this stuff about binding legally ends at the end of this Congress’s session in December. What happens then depends very much on the composition of the next Congress.
What exactly will anyone gain in the lame duck session. All of the maneuvering like this will end on election day.
Too true.
From my view in the cheap seats there are millions of us already over the cliff so delaying the forced austerity budget on the rest of the 99% seems like only political expediency and has nothing to do with the makeup of any future Congress. The next Congress will be in lock step with the 1% agenda.
If they’re publicly stating that it’s on the table, that means the deal is already done. Big effin’ surprise!
And so now they want to create more uncertainty and an expectation of a really grand,bargain. Good move guys., the unemployed thank you.
Didn’t they buy themselves a year when they first worked out the current fucking deal?
Kickin’ the can down the road.
We got a big mess with this bunch of legislaturds.
It will be interresting to see if the anti-incumbency movement and congressational disatisfaction effecta the makup of the next bunch of morons.
Amazing how the debate is all about deficits (now that there’s a Dem president to blame for them) and not about rich people who don’t pay their fair share of taxes.
0bama will have his god-damned “Grand Bargain”, literally at all costs. It will be our Democratic “Hope” and “Change” president who will kill Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid in exchange for…what? Kick-backs from fat-cats. Ther prosperity of a nation doesn’t count when personal wealth is the true objective.
O, even the national debt could be progressively criticized – like who’s benefiting from it and it’s function in the capitalist system. Instead, we get “progressive” capitalist PC about the Republican stupidity and threat – just more wailing under the capitalist reign of terror.
Capitalism is fraud.
Let’s see the thing that actually makes Social Security fund the deficit will continue. Want to bet extended unemployment benefits won’t be?
And I notice we don’t have people deriding the massive corporate welfare the budget is riddled with. Talking about the private jets that the CEOs wouldn’t be taking if they weren’t getting massive government breaks. OVER AND OVER AND OVER.
And I sure as hell don’t see our guys refusing to do anything about stopping that sequester unless we get a repeal of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy and the institution of a sales tax on Stock Trades. You know the stuff they should be demanding…
“our guys”?
There are politicians who represent the American people in Washington? How odd. I could have sworn it was just Republicans and Democrats, the two arms of the Fuck You Party.
EZ’s got it right: you want the truth? Mitt can’t handle the truth! His lying campaign is on the verge of complete collapse after Mitt’s huge blunders on foreign policy, tax evasion, general truthiness, lame-ass convention.
Obama wins big in November and will have coattails, which means the repugs likely lose their majority in the House. Boehner knows it, boo-hoo.
All their obstructionism has had a planned devastating effect on suffocating the economy, once lifted sufficiently, the country will bounce back big time.
Harry Reid is right again: he unlike lyin Ryan actually did run in multiple marathons under 4 hours.
Extend ALL the Bush tax cuts and set up Super Committee #2.
The Republicans have this stuff down pat.
I can hear the Republicans now … “Why we can’t increase tax rates NOW in the MIDDLE of a tax year … why of course they must be extended to the end of the year” …
Shake and repeat.