Stocks have leveled off after yesterday’s boost from the Federal Reserve’s resumption of quantitative easing, this time in a more modest but open-ended capacity.
Most analysts take for granted that this new QE3 will work, in fact, better than the first two rounds despite its smaller footprint. That stems from the use of the expectations channel, and the Fed communicating that they will continue to take steps at monetary easing even after the recovery takes hold and the labor market improves. This represents a kind of admission of guilt on the part of Ben Bernanke, whose Jackson Hole speech was full of defenses of his prior view of the monetary situation. Basically, Bernanke said “we didn’t do enough, we’re changing course.”
Josh Barro thinks it’s a win-win for everyone.
While overly tight monetary policy has hit the unemployed the hardest, it has been bad for almost everybody, including rich people. It’s true that disinflation has been good for certain securities, particularly low-risk bonds. But wealthy bondholders also tend to be wealthy stockholders, and Fed policies that hold economic growth down are bad for equities. Most advocates of hard money are simply making a mistake, not putting their interests ahead of the common good.
The great thing about good policy is that it is a positive-sum game. A Fed that credibly promises to ease until unemployment falls will both put people back to work and grow the economy faster, driving up stock prices. That’s a win for capital, a win for labor and, if he gets credit for an accelerated recovery, a win for Ben Bernanke. As Michael Scott might say, it’s a win-win-win.
However, it’s worth stepping back and thinking about the various channels that policymakers can use to create jobs, as Jared Bernstein does. The most direct one comes from hiring workers to do specific work. Monetary policy does not function like that at all. It lowers interest rates in the hopes that cash will come off the sidelines, that the lower cost of loans will spur more lending and investment, that the money saved on the loans will go back into the economy, that jobs associated with all these loans and this consumer spending will get a boost.
So, a homebuyer takes advantage of a low mortgage rate, leading to jobs for homebuilders and real estate agents and furniture suppliers. A factory owner takes advantage of low rates to replace old equipment, creating jobs for machine manufacturers. An auto dealer invests in a redesigned show room, a buyer takes advantage of that dealer’s low rates and buys a new car there, employing designers, salespeople, and auto suppliers.
And those are just the direct jobs. The newly employed construction worker goes out for lunch near the job site, and the diner needs to add another worker (the jobs multiplier effect).
Should we expect this in the current state of affairs? Yves Smith doesn’t really think so. First, she notes that this will weaken the dollar (as would anything that puts more dollars into circulation), which may be good for trade but bad for Europe, which still represents the real tail risk at the moment. Boosting commodity prices amid a drought-stricken price spike may increase political unrest. But her real complaint is this:
But the elephant in the room is what, if anything, these measures will achieve in terms of real economy impact. “Let them eat stocks and housing” has not been terribly successful. Even with super low rates, it has also taken massive sequestering of inventories for the housing market to have the appearance of stabilizing. We have low household formation due to young adults facing high unemployment, low paying jobs with generally short job tenures, and heavy student debt burdens. On top of that, we have generational headwinds as boomers hit retirement age and want or need to downsize. Keeping money on sale is not going to induce banks to lend more if they can’t find enough qualified borrowers. And the consumer deleveraging story is not as positive as the statistics would lead you to believe. A lot of it is involuntary, meaning driven by foreclosures. In addition, retirees also curtail their spending thanks to the fall in interest income they’ve suffered under ZIRP.
Smith also believes that the Fed has walked into a blind canyon, without a way to escape low interest rates without snapping back the economy, and with no space in the event of a financial or fiscal shock.
One additional piece to this is that the lower mortgage rates will induce more investor purchases of housing and conversion into single-family rental units. That could mask the housing struggle for quite a bit longer. But we have to ask what kind of housing market that will leave us, whether it’s healthy over the long-term, and what consequences will arise from it (i.e. the absentee slumlord problem, the house-flipper bubble, etc.).
There’s also the concern of harming savers, particularly near-retirees. Bernanke addressed this yesterday, and he’s right that savers have more to lose from a bad economy and a lack of jobs. But with demographics as they are, we have an outsized number of people ending their work life and needing a decent yield to retire.
Overall, I would say that the Fed’s actions can help at the margins, even while they produce unintended consequences. And I think the expectations channel can multiply these effects. But the monetary channel at this point, with mass underwater homeowners, continued deleveraging, and weak consumer demand, is not as effective as it could be. We still need fiscal stimulus and smart deleveraging from debt write-downs.




20 Comments

Support this site!
Subscribe to the newsletter
Advertise on Firedoglake
Send
us your tips
Make us your homepage
About FDL News Desk
Which was my point yesterday. This isn’t really going to have it’s intended consequences. How long has the Fed held the Fed Funds rate(or whatever it is called) been near zero? And “B-52″ Ben said rates will be held low through 2015? How long will it be since the start? Isn’t that a sign of elite failure?
But but but Mr Bernanke! Huge banks already have lots of dough! It’s everybody else who’s kind of strapped.
The Fed is suffering from Middle Aged Man Disease. Continuing to do the things that made you successful as a young man, long after they quit working, and when they fail you double down until the younger folks take you away to the retirement home.
This isn’t a business cycle recession to be cured with easy credit, it’s a credit cycle depression to be cured by permanent expansion of the public sector with millions of new unionized career jobs that won’t be outsourced, offshored, or downsized.
QE3 = Fed buying (= printing money) $40 billion worth of MBS per month. This is just another backdoor bailout of the TBTF banks. It takes the MBS crap off their books, allowing them to avoid the mark-to-market issue. (Note how their stock prices have zoomed up even faster than the market since the QE3 bazooka launch).
Welcome to Japan. Permanent ZIRP, permanent QE, non-stop propping of zombie TBTF banks. Helps the 1%, does jackshit for the 99%. Surprise!
I bow to your awesome command of economics, dday.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/qe3-will-have-limited-short-term-effect-on-housing-2012-09-14
You can say that again. But then comes the only realistic part.
You forget the new commodities bubble: oil & food NOT excluded.
QE3=more free money for the banks that everyone else will ultimately pay for. Their stock futures are greatly increased, hence the orgasmic rise of the Dow.
IOW, it’s just more fascism. Ho hum.
The problem with the FED trying to get money into the economy with QE3, is that it’s a very inefficient way to money into the system. The banksters will skim 99% of it into their pockets. A far better way is with fiscal policy out of Washington, with real spending on “stuff”.
All the FED can hope for is to keep us from crashing completely into a depression, as the bought and paid for politicians in Washington watch their buddy banksters skim the money off into their pockets.
The US is spending on stuff — ten billion dollar aircraft carriers and $150m jet planes.
Although I would much rather spend money on things other than the military, it still creates jobs.
Don’t get me wrong I despise our government maintaining an world-wide empire, and would like to see our government spend on other “stuff”
More free money for the gambling casinos that will raise gas and food prices for ordinary Americans, and cut incomes for seniors trying to live off their savings.
We need changes in TRADE policies to create decent jobs in this country.
Offshoring military production.
Very true, but the Fed can’t do that, and Congress, the President, and both parties WON’T.
this is the end of the united states as you have come to know it.
the formal restoration of serfdom, indentured servitude, is just months away.
the enshrining of the new nobility: the banksters and the pols and the lobbyists.
oh, and the military and the police.
and there will little that you can do to reverse that prospective history.
if you are a caring individual, perhaps you will resurrect the white rose society. in an effort to repudiate totalitarianism.
but, my guess is that there are now no similar heroes willing to face the gallows for an ideal.
and even if there were a few, they would be rounded up by obombya and executed with no publicity, no obituary. no one would know that there were still any anti-fascists active in the usa.
so, i propose that we hold a national day of a funeral. burying the democratic republic that once was the united states of america.
Part of me says you are correct. Willing to face the gallows for an ideal? Heck, most of us are not willing to miss snack time or our favorite TV show for an ideal.
But, then I think of those among us who do take bold action for an ideal. For one thing, we have an all volunteer army and people are still joining, even though they get sent back to theaters over and over and over.
I am not exactly a fan of wars, so that is not my point. My point is that some of us seem to be born with motivation or, better yet, the ability to motivate, to take dangerous action for an ideal.
A relatively small number of U.S. liberals seem to have had the motivation or the ability to motivate in the Sixties. Now, it seems to be the right.
Please, someone remind me: Wasn’t the NY Fed a very important player in the crash of 2008? And wasn’t our current Republican Secretary of Treasury in charge of the NY Fed then?
And, let’s see, who was in charge of the entire Fed then? Republican Bernanke, right?
Didn’t Democrats Presidents once have a solid reputation of being good for the economy, particularly as it affects working people?
Wasn’t disappointing people in that respect one of the reasons Carter was a one term President?
So, why did Obama appoint Geithner and re-appoint Bernanke?
The irony is, after losing 2010 in historic proportions for the Democratic Party, Obama will get re-elected in 2012.
David ,David ,DAVID,you continue to believe the system is a well-intentioned entity that’s looking out for us .Beyond the self-imposed retardation of conformist thinking one will note that Ben never said he intended his intention was to create jobs .He said he what continue expanding the Wall.St. asset bubble with welfare liquidity until there was a significant drop in unemployment . Any real decrease in unemployment would ,actually ,be the unintended consequence .
The impact on home sales will be zilch.because Ben promised zilch insofar as making retail credit more available for more credit- worthy people It’s all trickle-down and central bankers have no incentive to make home loans as opposed to helping Ben keep interest rates low by investing in the swaps market .All cushioned in the same rigging and moral hazard
David ,I just gave you better knowledge than Uncle Jared could impart in a hundred years You will get it ,just hang in there .Atta boy .
Sorry about getting distracted .My initial comment meant to say Ben promised indefinite QE because no one was going to expand the jobs market and reduce unemployment.To conflate his comment regarding unemployment into an intention to doggedly pursue a significant drop in joblessness is a serious misread .