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Just as I write a post about GDP and employment data, the Labor Department comes out with their preliminary benchmark revision on payroll data, showing a net increase of 386,000 jobs.
In its annual revision to its employment data, the Labor Department said Thursday that 386,000 more jobs were created in the year ending in March than it originally had reported. The revision is a preliminary estimate, with a final figure coming in February [...]
The new data, culled from state unemployment insurance tax records, showed the economy added 453,000 additional private sector jobs. But government jobs dropped 67,000 more than originally reported.
The result is there were 133.25 million people employed in non-farm jobs at the end of March instead of 132.86 million, or about 0.3% more than originally thought.
Here’s the BLS’ release. Because it’s based on tax records from the employers themselves, it’s seen as more reliable than the monthly payroll statistics. As the article notes, private sector job growth went up around 0.4%, while the public sector dropped 0.3%. This has been the story of the last four years, a recovery in the private sector weighted down by a depression in the public sector. If public sector jobs grew at the rate seen in the Presidencies of George W. Bush and Ronald Reagan, we would have somewhere around 7.0% unemployment, if not lower.
Major industries boosted by the revisions include construction (up 1.6%), mining and logging (up 1.4%) and information technology (up 1.9%).
As you can see in this historical chart provided by Calculated Risk, a 0.3% increase is within the historical range of revisions. In 2009, at the height of the Great Recession, the number actually got revised downward by 0.7%. This is the biggest gain in the revisions since 2006. Last year also saw a gain, although a slighter one (162,000 jobs).
The important milestone politically is that this revision turns the Obama Presidency positive relative to net job creation. Over the President’s term starting in January 2009, the economy has created 125,000 jobs. Obviously there are caveats given the expansion of the eligible labor force in those four years, but that benchmark will probably come up in the debates.
None of this is to say that the jobs situation is markedly different with this revision upwards. The unemployment rate, based on a different survey, remains at 8.1%, and job growth over the past two quarters has not really been enough to get that rate down rapidly. With major retail store closings around the corner, we still have an economy performing below trend.
The next monthly jobs report, the second to last before the election, comes out a week from Friday.
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“None of this is to say that the jobs situation is markedly different with this revision upwards.” Yep, I’ll take the revision, but the jobs added have been pretty stinky, too. Lots of restaurant, service, and lower-level health care jobs.
Mmmm. The map is not the territory. The statistic is not the reality. Something is making consumers feel a little smidgen bit better and more “confident”.
Keep in mind no jobs were added or removed. The change merely reflects a change in the methodology for estimating the work force.
Being someone pseudo-employed, i have seen a big rise in “part-time” jobs. Even things that are slightly more professional want people for 20-25 hours a week. My current low end job has a “flexible” schedule but we all know that we actually have a cap of so many alloted hours. The flexibility comes in simply in when you can accrue them. But still, even this set up is better than a full time job in retail trying to look busy for $7.50 an hour and the pay is about equal.
If the jobs ‘added’ are service sector jobs, or entry level construction jobs, then it’s meaningless. We’ve gone backwards. Net wealth will continue to shrink for the vast majority of us.
The laborers and producers of goods and services in this country can not produce enough to sustain the vast opulence of the upper crust. With finite resources and finite wealth, the scales need to shift back toward balance in order for our country to succeed.
This cannot continue forever.
Yes, I’m sure all the people who are suffering will look at these numbers, coming from a wonderfully slippery BLS, and say, “Wow, I feel much better about all this now, thanks to these numbers which don’t mean a damn thing to me.”
It’s an election year. That means these “revisions” will probably be revised downward once again at the beginning of next year. That’s the way this typically works.
It’s a “wish sandwich,” two slices of bread and we wish we had some meat.
” But government jobs dropped 67,000 more than originally reported.”
Probably union employment, and decent paying.
You all missed the point, folks: to have an article about jobs with headline that makes Obama look good.
MIddle class income hasn’t budges in 15 years. The filty rich got 14% MORE filthier richer just last year. Will Obama and his likely democratic congress DO something about that?????
You and I both know the answer to that question, but there are those that would beg to differ.
You mean those who wear rose colored glasses????
No, we got it. Loud and clear.
Or those that read TBogg…
“In its annual revision to its employment data, the Labor Department said . .”
Gotta love it — there must be some election debates coming up. Kudos to the “Labor Department” for their labors which make Obama a net job creator for the first time. “Obama Creates Jobs.” Hah.
. . .and you can quote FireDogLake on that.
And what kind of jobs has the “Net Job Creator” created? McCrap jobs with sh*tty pay and benefits:
http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-jobs-low-paying-recession-middle-class-20120831,0,2348652.story
Yes, agreed, but we are still a long ways away from full employment, not to mention things like poverty and health care.
The dem progressive caucus sent a letter to the gang of eight begging for some consideration on spending cuts and the need to raise taxes. Think it will work?
Anybody know why I can’t post a link. I tried to add a link and the whole post just disappeared???
can’t believe that there still any around here.
Probably the same type of jobs the Gov. Rick Perry of Tejas boasted about creating in his state. The ones that an individual would need at least 2 of to almost make ends meet.
Check the front page and you’ll find many still buying the uniparty duopoly crap and the “lesser of two evils” propaganda.
To see how far away we are on healthcare, look at the newly issued “Medicare & You” handbook for Medicare recipients. It looks for all the world to be forcing seniors into buying Medigap coverage or Medicare Advantage by having high co-pays and deductibles on Medicare Part A and Medicare Part B. And by playing around with providers’ ability to deny assignment of costs. More and more it is becoming as partial coverage as Ryan’s Vouchercare would be.
Until the stock market collapse of 2013 (after the election) all of Washington and the 1%ers will be wearing those rose colored glasses.
Obama’s got no one to blame for that but himself. He’s the fool that has a pathological obsession with the deficit and has bragged about how small the government is under his administration.
I realize – it just boggles my mind.
And I thought I was the only cynic reading the article.