A series of economic data released today has pretty bad news for those hoping for a sustained recovery that will increase job and GDP growth.
First of all, personal income nearly flatlined, rising just 0.1% in August, a number that, if annualized, would be below inflation. So real income is decreasing. Personal income came in with virtually the same number in July. This represents a slowdown from the second quarter, when income rose at a faster rate. And all the numbers on salaries and wages were down in August relative to July. So the recent trend is near-flat wage growth, which we’ve seen for some time.
Personal consumption expenditures did rise by a healthy 0.5% in August, but that’s fairly flat in real terms. But you wonder how long that can continue in the midst of a wage slowdown, without building another credit bubble. And even with that rise, personal consumption increases in the third quarter are consistent with a 1.3% rise in GDP, the same as the weak second quarter.
Then, the Institute for Supply Management Chicago’s survey of business showed their business barometer at 49.7, the lowest level in three years. These numbers are very distressing:
EMPLOYMENT: 2 1/2 year low; NEW ORDERS, ORDER BACKLOGS, and SUPPLIER DELIVERIES: 3 month moving averages lowest since mid 2009; PRICES PAID: third consecutive monthly gain; BUYING POLICY: CAPITAL EQUIPMENT: 17 month low.
So I see prices going up with business activity going sharply down. The trend is all down from the spring, which wasn’t exactly a boom time in its own right.
Finally, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose to a four-month high, but at a rate below expectations. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey had a similar rise in September, and I do think this can be explained by Democratic confidence as a residual effect from the Presidential election, as opposed to some real economic activity.
Stocks are generally down after this series of reports. So far, the expectations from a new round of quantitative easing have failed to really boost the economy, though most of these figures come from before the announcement, so we shouldn’t write that off totally. The larger point is that this isn’t a fully healthy economy, and certainly not one that could withstand a major drawing back of fiscal supports, as Congress contemplates in their next round of negotiations on the sequester and tax rates.




23 Comments

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I guess I am a Doom and Gloomer. I dont think the economy is ever going to “come back”. This is it.
Proof we can’t sustain an economy in the U.S. that relies on the benefits of a global economy run by multi-national corporation who have only a short term profit motive. We are in for it after the election results are confirmed.
Nice anlysis. Economy does not look healthy at all. I don’t expect QE to add anything. It is more psychological than anything else and that boat has sailed. Only maybe bright spot is the consumption number which should keep business profits going along and avoid layoffs. So recession may not be on horizon but unemployment will also flatline. But stay tuned. Next Friday will be a big day.
I agree. If the “job creators” who aren’t really creating jobs don’t start creating jobs the there won’t be any jobs created. Of course, we’ve off-shored and outsourced so many jobs and with NAFTA and the new SUPER Global-Pacific NAFTA I feel we may be in for a long, lonely economic winter.
I disagree only because I think the planned austerity of the ruling class is not sustainable even for them. They can’t share or play fair with the 99% why would we think they can share or play fair with each other? And we won’t just roll over and take what they leave us, we won’t.
You’re always right. Ya’ know, IF the Aztec calendars had been right, this would all be academic.
Bingo again.
Those with $100 million want $500 million
THose with $500 million want a billion
Those with a billion want $20 billion.
OTOH, it was nice to see Marc Zuckerberg get screwed. But I digress.
Not always right by a long shot, bought Lucent at $62 and laughed at my friend who was buying Apple when it was $22. I was also very positive the Giants couldn’t beat Brady a second time. :)
Nice to see you’re human.
That little shit Eli Manning cost me money too.
What are we gonna talk about after the election????? Greece, Spain, Italy, Europe bores the hell out of me.
Something tells me after the election there will be more BS attempting to baffle our brains than we will be able to process. So I won’t have to change my handle but only 1%ers will be able to buy new cars so you might want to go with usedcarguy or electricbikeguy?
Nothing to worry about here folks. BerBanke is printing money again.
Just because QE1 and QE2 failed, doesn’t mean QE3 will fail /s
@newcarguy…
the issue is we really dont need any NEW jobs. there is no need other than people have to work. There are no shortages, waits for products, empty shelves or real demand. The only thing driving any expansion has been the housing bubble overbuilding and increasing the sprawl causing new areas to need a Home Depot or Walmart or Super Target.
About all the future holds are make work jobs fixing the aging infrastructure.
Manufacturing is never coming back. A barely trained monkey can do most of these “union jobs” for peanuts which is why they can be shipped to india and china so easily. China will be moving in on Africa more and more and exploiting it for cheaper labor.
Ive also heard that one way we are going to “come back” is simply build better products. I laugh. Had to replace some applainces earlier in the year. They were 30-40 years old dating from late 70s early 80s. Get that. They lasted decades. Just got what is supposably an American product. The backing on it isnt cheap aluminum. It isnt plastic. Its cardboard. Cardboard on a $1500 fridge. So i dont see any real benefit to buying American.
you ever wonder where all this actual printed money is piled up at? It would be a tourist destination to rival Yosemite or Yellowstone especially if it sorta looked like the Virgin Mary/s
It works out well for the guys who wind up with big salaries and bonuses with all the QE’s.
Reply to newcarguy #7 Or as Bogart (in Key Largo) answers the question put to
Rocco the gangster (Edward G.Robinson) “what does Rocco want?” Answer
“More”
Does anybody really believe that QE is anything other than sophomoric semantics that really means widening inequality?
I thought that was the Mayan calendar rather than the Aztec. Are you sure you’re 1/16th Indian?
I’m good. My “toy” is my ’78 Silver Anniversary Corvette which I restored, show amd drive on weekends. My “daily driver” is a ’96 Nissan that was my wife’s car. Put a new 5 SPD tranny in last year but only got 123K on it. She’s got a ’05 Mitsubishi Galant which has been a great car.
I full expect this recession will last another 4 years. Maybe worse if the commercial real estatew bubble bursts as many predict. You should see al the empty office space here in Houston. We have a 50% occupancy or vacancy rate for our three properties. I don;t see Obama and/or congress doing anything to help.
Your are 100% correct.
Right now, all the semi-skilled workers are employed, as you say, at Walmart, Home Depot etc. Some internet and phone sales CSR’s. Most Americans are either making less than used to or the same as in ’96. The rest, teh 1% are making 300-400-500% of waht they used to make. Regrettably, this is the new normal. Blue collar jobs still there. But mid-level CSR, semi-skilled jobs are ALL gone. Never gonna come back.
Damn! It IS the Mayan calendar. I am 1/16 Cherokee, But all them Mexican Indians look alike to us.
One last time for anyopne who missed it……
MY good buddy works at the Fed in Dallas. He told me he went down to the vault and all that he found was $196.35, a Nixon/Agnew button, a $50.00 IOU from John Dean, and case Mr. Pibb.
Or, to quote Janis Joplin, “Oh Lord, won’t you buy me a Mercedes Benz. MY friends all drive Porsches, I must make ammends.”
Just wait ’til that Trans-Pacific Partnership kicks in. Obama’s keeping it secret ‘cuz it’s soooo good! You won’t believe it. Little ole us, partners with three billion Asians.
We’re fortunate to have politicians looking out for our welfare, don’t you agree? I mean, it would be so easy for them to give in and support the people that support them financially. But no.
Citizens come first, in Washington. Count on it. Okay, hope for it.