The Greek government submitted a draft budget for next year that would only further increase the pain and suffering directed at the population, despite depression conditions. But the European leaders determining whether the fresh austerity plan is good enough to meet their conditions want even more pain, in the form of deeper wage cuts.
First, to the draft budget:
The draft budget spells out about $10 billion in spending cuts and savings for 2013. About one-quarter of that would come through reductions in civil servants’ salaries and social welfare benefits, and about 15 percent through cuts in spending on health, defense and local authorities, the government said. It also stipulates raising the retirement age to 67 from 65, but that is not expected to alter the bottom line in 2013.
The draft budget is expected to be revised significantly because it must be approved by the country’s troika of foreign lenders — the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund — before it can be submitted for a parliamentary vote.
The troika is insisting on further cuts in the public sector — including laying off public servants, a political third rail in Greece and other European countries — while the coalition government has been pushing back. The coalition, which consists of the conservative New Democracy, the Socialists and the smaller Democratic Left party, is asking Greece’s lenders for more time, saying such cuts are not politically or socially sustainable in the face of growing social unrest.
So here’s the plan. In the middle of a depression, Greece has agreed to cut wages, benefits and social welfare spending. But the troika wants more cuts, including layoffs. Those are the two options: pain and more pain.
Unbelievably, this draft budget would leave the government in SURPLUS for 2013 of 1.1% of GDP. That’s partially because GDP would continue to cascade downward; a 6.5% reduction this year and a 3.8% reduction next year. Unemployment would hit nearly 25% next year under this budget. The phrase you’re looking for is “impossibly cruel.”
The draft budget cuts aren’t enough for the far crueler troika, however. As The Guardian reports, the troika rejected €2 billion of Greece’s proposed spending cuts, and demanded “further cuts in wages and pensions.” So you have a group of international lenders who don’t live in Greece forcing the country’s democratically elected government into savage cuts to the public sector, literally taking money out of their pockets. The troika’s demands are completely unsustainable, but they don’t have to live under them, so what do they care.
This is known as “internal devaluation.” Greece cannot use their monetary policy to devalue their currency, given their presence in the euro. So they devalue through massive wage cuts, in the hope that this creates the same kind of export expansion and debt relief. But this is the most savage way to realize this goal, by essentially burning your own human capital.
Labor unions have already vowed new protests including a general strike. The non-mainstream parties outside the Greek coalition, Syriza on the left and Golden Dawn on the anti-immigrant right, stand to ultimately benefit.




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The beatings will continue until morale improves.
p.s. when is the next “deadline” for Greece cuz last I heard the drop dead date was May 15 2012.
Does anyone know what kind of sympathies are taking shape in our own Greek-American population(s)? For that matter, Spanish-American also. I can’t imagine this continuing without serious civil unrest developing in Europe and there being response in the diaspora.
You have to ask whether or not crushing unemployment will lead to revolt? And you have to ask when will the so called leaders finally understand that they can almost certainly do better on their own. I suppose you can ask the same thing about Spain or Portugal. Then you need to ask if exports are so important to Germany they would inflict this pain?
Am I crazy, or does this not make sense even from a banking perspective? While the whole purpose of the IMF may be (as Greg Palast implies) to artificially manufacture a debt “crisis” to force the sales of national assets to private corporations, I’m starting to wonder if there’s enough asset-stripping possible to meet “bailouts” of this nature. If you can’t get Greece to sell, well, Greece and make its payments, might you not want to consider letting the Greek economy improve, rather than wrecking it beyond repair? Otherwise, yes, a few of your friends in the real estate and minerals business may be able to scoop up a bargain, but the banks are running a huge risk of getting stiffed. Doesn’t seem very smart.
To make money, an economy needs to function. To function, there needs to be money in the economy. It’s something even James Carville could understand, stupid.
Sigh.
You are thinking longer term than the MOTU who are trying to prevent short term losses on bets (Greek Bond Buying Binges) with no care what happens in the long term (say three quarters or a year from now). I’ve been saying for a long time rich people are stupid as a class. Proof is everywhere.
I think you have to ask which country wins or loses. This is a political union above all. The bankers need to,work around that,reality., no love lost here between the northern and southern coumtries.
Zito Hellas!
Z!
Fuck the IMF and the EU and Merkel and Lagarde and Draghi, etc etc etc… motherfuckers all.
Greece is being depleted of its assets at such a blistering pace ,I question whether its a virtual colony at this point .The Greeks better elect the young socialist and disabuse themselves of the infantile notion of keeping the euro and being relieved of debt-generating austerity.They don’t get that choice ,ever .
Regardless of outcome ,hyper-inflation must cheapen the trillions in exposures ,and hence looting every conceivable hard asset to hedge against devaluation makes perfect sense .Even the major German banks are insolvent with 60 to 1 leverage , so expanding collateral bases is crucial .
Jeebus Christ, man. The banking system is constantly pulling off frauds with their fictional capital. Do you think they take all that investment bullshit seriously?
If they despoil Greece et al. for their capitalists, that is enough.
And they are much smarter than BSBB thinks; they don’t play by his rules.
Actually, the phrase I’m looking for is “German diplomats pick through the smouldering ruins of their former embassy. Film at 11.”