Because data is just fungible to the political leanings of whoever confronts it, we predictably saw a number of conservatives question today’s jobs report, suggesting that the Bureau of Labor Statistics fudged the data to help the President’s re-election campaign. Leading this charge was former GE CEO Jack Welch on Twitter. I think the government should make a deal with Welch – they’ll admit to massaging the data if he cleans up all the PCBs in the Hudson River personally.
On a more serious note, this is really pretty outrageous, and Labor Secretary Hilda Solis, whose department includes the BLS, is right to be insulted. The BLS is a civil service agency that until recently was still run by a Bush appointee. It now has a career bureaucrat in charge. The political team plays no role whatsoever in the derivation of or announcement of the jobs data. And if, despite all this, BLS cooked the books, they’re terrible at it, because they shifted the data in the household survey without corresponding in the establishment survey.
Jared Bernstein, a former economic adviser to Vice President Biden, blasted Welch.
“I’m going to say this very starkly. Jack Welch should be ashamed of himself. There’s absolutely no way the Bureau of Labor Statistics cooks these numbers. They have tremendous integrity,” Bernstein says. “I’m sorry he doesn’t like the direction of the numbers. I will very much admit that these numbers jump around from month to month. They do. But to say that these numbers are cooked by the BLS is terribly obfuscating and completely wrong.”
The household data is always known to be noisy, and the payroll data is usually more commonly used by economists. And between revisions and the monthly number, that tells a decent story. That story will get fleshed out in the coming months as the data gets revised, as per the norm. If political observers over-learn the lessons of the BLS report every month, that has nothing to do with its administrators. Overall there are completely plausible explanations for everything in the survey that do not require anyone having to lie to the BLS surveyors or the career economists suddenly manipulating data to get a desired result.
The larger point to be made here is about the questioning of the integrity of an organization that has amassed significant credibility over the years. Whether it’s pollsters or climate scientists or economic data reporters, conservatives have decided, as part of their martyr mentality and anti-intellectualism, to question any number that doesn’t reflect positively on them. You would not hear about book-cooking if the BLS data showed a disappointing report; in fact, you didn’t hear that LAST MONTH, when the initial report for August was disappointing.
This crying foul any time data doesn’t go a conservative’s way has a debilitating effect on our politics. It makes it impossible to govern a country whose two major ideological groups live in different universes with different sets of facts. Conspiracy theorists may be dismissed today, but with each passing month, they gather credibility among like-minded confreres. And the respect for data and verifiable statistical reality dissipates bit by bit. It’s truly sad.





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Jack Welch should be put out to the same pasture as Jim Lehrer.
I am not a conservative and I would not put it past this administration to have “worked very closely” with the people responsible for generating the job numbers.
And your evidence of this malfeasance would be…?
The employment-population ratio is now up to 58.7%! That’s the highest it’s been since… May of 2010!!
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000
Woop de doo. Tell me when the graph no longer looks like it’s flatlining.
Jack Welch has always been at the top of my shit list. And every time I think about replacing him with Jamie Dimon/Tim Geither/Robert Rubin, he reminds me why he still deserves top billing.
“Ideally, you’d have every plant you own on a barge to move with currencies and changes in the economy. You can’t do that, but the job of a company is to be agile and to capitalize on these things, but it’s a tough economy.”
I’m with you. Too convenient.
Not only am I suspicious–I actually predicted that the job numbers would be improbably good for Obama. I think this supports my theory–that the Obama folks have found a way to put their thumb on the scales.
The problem is that the job numbers are incredibly convenient for Obama–much like the surge which only occurred in the swing states, precisely where Obama needed it, and at the precise time when Obama needed it. When things are that convenient, people think conspiracy, especially with a politician as thoroughly duplicitous as Obama, whose campaign has openly expressed their fondness for Rovean politics. It’s just human nature.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA…. poor, poor bagger …
Mittens …. just lost his debate bump and all the so called “progressives” on this site have a sad
“But to say that these numbers are cooked by the BLS is terribly obfuscating and completely wrong.”
Obfuscating? really? No wonder the common folk distrust the left, they can’t understand anything they say.
The pea brained lunatic Alan West just made an ass out of himself on the BLS numbers on CNBC. Can’t grasp the difference between revisions and forgery, or the difference between U6 and U1. When the anchor pressed him he went into a Tourette’s fit. They got nothing.
First of all there is nothing much to brag about the employment numbers from this morning. You will find this crap has not changed a bit if you talk to average person in the street. On the other hand, there is nothing fuzzy about the damage that has been done to the economy, housing, households and the enormous amount of money that has been given to bailout bankster crooks.
The last thing you need is a lesson form Jack Welch, Viagra chewing old Jack Ass who was humping other women while still married.
I’m pretty sure that’s the 2nd time you’ve insulted me today. You must be new.
Well that settles it then. The Kenyan cooked the books.
What goes down must come up eventually and vice versa.
Out of work for two years a year ago but working for the last year. Plenty of openings now in any field if one has the skills.
It’s sad when the general public will accept that career civil servants will kiss any ass that’s presented. They have to look at the long view, and in my experience can only be budged by direct threats from political appointees. They are human beings, but they are seldom the quivering sycophants you choose to pose.
“I’m pretty sure that’s the 2nd time you’ve insulted me today. You must be new.”
So now we have an established aristocracy at MyFDL? I’ve been smelling this coming for some time, guess it’s time to move on.
This is where their longstanding methods of disciplining us to think that some shite blip in the employment numbers means something pays off handsomely for them–when a look out the window for a poor person reveals crumbling infrastructure, failing schools, and homeless people. Obama and Welch inhabit the same side of the frame, from where I sit.
If Jack Welch is cleaning, I want him doing it with his fat mouth, cancer victims watching.
I disagree.
I didn’t portray anyone as quivering sycophants. That’s how you interpreted my comment.
My saying that Blu must be new was to imply that for Blu to call me a ‘bagger’, he or she must not be familiar with me. Again, you’ve interpreted my comment in a way that suited you.
Yes, let’s not be naive about how close to election this “uptick”
comes —
Let’s also recall that Global Warming scientists have had their
writings censored by the Bush administration — New Yorkers could
be lied to by the EPA which told them that the city was
environmentally safe after 9/11 — and our government hasn’t told
the truth about inflation since the VN war — and, perhaps, we also
fail to see the new “chained COLA’s” governing Social Security
increases as lies?
The FDA isn’t lying for the benefit of Monsanto and Pharmaceutical
companies? How naive are we?
Some might call these events conspiracies, but let’s remember this is
“conspiracy-free America.”
And kris, I’m with you. You can fool some of the people of the time. Obama is counting on this. All of this is just way too convenient. I mean come on, it’s the exact number as when he took office!
Ok, within a week they’ll have bridges they wanna sell to the suckers.
If the Obama Administration could control the jobs numbers, they would have been below 8% a long time ago.
He did call you a “bagger” didn’t he? Where the hell did he come up with that? My apologies.
“and our government hasn’t told
the truth about inflation since the VN war — and, perhaps, we also
fail to see the new “chained COLA’s” governing Social Security
increases as lies?”
Pls distinguish between law and lie. Convention holds that when we say the “government” we are speaking to the behavior of the Executive Branch. IE, Congress is not part of the government.
That’s almost as good as finding a perfect pecan, just dropped, lying on the sidewalk between my place and the store. Perks up my whole day.
Boy, with stark language like that, I’m sure Neutron Jack will change his whole life around.
David:
It is one thing to dismiss the theory the BLS is deliberately distorting data. Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t, I have no idea. I’m surprised, though, after all the lies/distortions from the Fed and Treasury during the past few years you have personally documented on this blog that you would be so trusting. It is another thing to claim that the BLS has “amassed significant credibility”. Anyone who thinks the data from the BLS reflects economic reality obviously does not look at the massive revisions made every January for the prior year. These belie the idea of the accuracy of the monthly reports. It is true the financial markets do use these reports. They need to have some basis for the HFT platforms to move prices. I know of no business people who adjust their operations on generalized macro data. They use the most accurate and relevant data available to them, which is their own.
Thanks :)
As for the rest of my comments/content on this topic, I think mjocaj@26 sums up my feelings rather nicely.
David, you make this sound like this is something the conservatives just came up with, but some of them, notably Daniel Amerman, have been banging on about it for quite a while.
From March, here is Amerman: Making 9 Million Jobless Vanish: How the Government Manipulates Unemployment Statistics.
Now, Amerman may be a gold bug, but he still makes an IMO convincing case. The BLS has been redefining jobless out of the “workforce”, with the result that the U-3 level has remained lower than it should be. If fewer of the non-employed are actually seeking work, then the “unemployment” number goes down and everything’s coming up roses (sort of) etc.
It’s certainly not exclusive to the Obama administration; as Amerman shows in Chart G, the Bushies responded to the 2001 recession by claiming that 0.9% of the workforce had vanished. The workforce participation rate “dropped” from 67.1% in 2000 to 66.8% in ’01, 66.6% in ’02, and finally 66.2% in 2003. Bush manipulated the numbers to claim that fewer people without work were seeking work and so weren’t really unemployed…they had taken early retirement or become stay-at-home parents or really ENJOYED being homeless and sleeping under bridges, whatever. Suddenly they didn’t count.
But as dishonest as one might think this policy was under Bush (2008 Workforce Participation Rate-66.0%, down 1.1% from the Clinton figure/historical average), it’s clearly gotten much worse since Obama came in:
2008: 66.0%
2009: 65.4%
2010: 64.7%
2011: 64.1%
2012: 63.4% (March projection)
Under Obama, the BLS declared more Americans irrelevant to the unemployment statistics in 2 years than they did in EIGHT years under Bush. By the end of this year, Obama will have increased the number of BLS-”don’t count them” Americans by more than double what Bush did in two terms, possibly triple. If you graphed this with a 60% baseline, the acceleration since 2008 would be quite pronounced.
Now, the BLS will say it’s all because baby-boomers are taking early retirement. (En masse? In *this* economy?). But, as Amerman notes in Graph C, “74% of the jobless who have been removed from unemployment calculations are in the 16-54 age bracket”. In other words, the “baby-boomer” explanation covers, at max, one-quarter of the no-longer-counted. Remove that from the chart above, and the 63.4% Workforce Participation rate would be more like 64.1%…still a precipitous drop from 2008. (And that’s making blanket assumptions about 55-year-olds retiring early, which I’m somewhat skeptical about, as noted above.)
I think it is quite likely that the Obama BLS is “moving the target” in order to look good. It’s been done before, and just as with so many other things, would merely be Obama doubling down on what Bush began. JMO.
Here is an interesting fact.
When the GOP’s patron saint, Ronald Reagan, was boasting that it was Morning In America in October of 1984, the unemployment rate was 7.3%.
Oh no!!,the number are not microwaved they are simply bogus and airbrushed,
not to mention unreal.
Lots of hot air here but not a molecule of actual evidence that BLS fixed the numbers.
No, here’s an Interesting Fact: Larry Yount’s MLB career consisted of 3 warm-up pitches. (He injured himself, never faced a batter, and never got back to the big leagues again. Meanwhile, his kid brother, Robin Yount, is in the Hall of Fame.)
Has about as much to do with the subject at hand as the October 1984 unemployment rate, as far as I can see.
If the numbers look better it’s can be attributed to the following factors:
1) More people have exhausted their unemployment benefits, are no longer looking for work.
2) Temporary and part time jobs are being included.
3) The numbers are being manipulated.
The quality of the jobs does matter, because if they are minimum wage it takes at least 2/person to make ends meet.
Ignore the latest ignorant blog infestation posting as Blu.
The number do not lie, but as I understand it over 500,000 of these jobs are part time and God knows what they pay. Do I think the BLS is cooked? Maybe not but every time during this whole economic meltdown I read the BLS numbers released I automatically up the % points to account for actual jobs that allow people to live decently. The employment counting is meaningless other then showing how screwed workers are. My daughter has 3 part time jobs and goes to community college in her spare time. She may be employed, does she count as one or 3 jobs on the bogus BLS. She recently acquired her third job at Pier1 where she asked if she could possibly be full time. No, they said no one but the store mangers are full time. Her other two jobs are at a local pizza chain. She works at two different locations part time which enables them to work her double shifts and still not pay benefits or overtime. All in all these numbers do not reflect the underemployed, part time workers, the self employed, those that have stopped looking and those who are not even counted.
While maybe not a conspiracy on the Dems. part its still a highly dubious assessment of jobs and our economic recovery. Simply a snapshot of how screwed labor is in this by-partisan NWO. When 3 jobs are needed to sustain a 20 year old living at home and trying to get an education these numbers are meaningless. She’s lucky but what about the people who while counted as employed are trying to survive on what passes for a job these days. Tragic when both sides banter these meaningless numbers of misery around for political gain. Who cares if the bogus data/numbers tally gets better. What about the freaking working people who cannot put food on the table or live a decent life without 3 jobs that all suck. How many angels can fit on the head of a pin type of talking point.
btw I make my living off stats and numbers they do not lie but how my clients interpret them and use them is not necessarily or usually anything but voodoo to back their selling points. Methodologically/mathamatically sound does not mean shit when your measuring the common good and peoples economic inequality and misery.
Jack Welch, better known as “Neutron Jack”, ruined GE while I was there. Jack, for lack of a better description, is a cocksucker.