When politicians and partisans talk about “the debt,” they are almost always talking about publicly held debt, the balance sheet of the US government. Yet overall debt includes a number of elements. You have state and local government debt, corporate debt, and individual private debt plays a role as well. Household balance sheets are just as important to an economy, if not more so, because the level of private debt can inform the level of consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of the economy. And it turns out that the US is at a six-year low in its overall debt, which at this point presents a problem for the economy.
Total indebtedness including that of federal and state governments and consumers has fallen to 3.29 times gross domestic product, the least since 2006, from a peak of 3.59 four years ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Private- sector borrowing is down by $4 trillion to $40.2 trillion.
Reduced borrowing means there is less competition for the U.S. Treasury Department as it sells debt to fund spending programs to help the nation recover from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Credit-rating firms are discounting the improvement even as debt, equity and currency markets suggest the U.S. is more creditworthy than before Standard & Poor’s stripped the nation of its AAA grade in 2011.
This means cheaper debt costs for the Treasury, which is a decent by-product. But it really means that the deleveraging of household balance sheets creates a demand gap that the government ought to fill. Households that pay off debt do not use that money in new consumer spending. If the gap doesn’t get filled, then economic activity slows. It’s as simple as that. Borrowing costs for debt are at historic lows, and the United States – as a whole – is not borrowing enough.
In other words, this “pain” that the deficit scolds want the US to suffer has already been administered. Private individuals have felt it. That’s why they spent the last four years rebuilding their balance sheets.
The bottom line is that everything people wanted to see happen has happened.
The housing bubble was pricked and collapsed.
Total debt for the country has come down.
The US has experienced a massive amount of economic pain.
Now, time to grow!
There are only a few inputs for an economy. Consumers are deleveraging, as we see above. The global slowdown has stunted trade. Businesses won’t invest in the midst of a trade slowdown and consumer pullback. Government purchases, in this case, becomes the spender of last resort. So government should borrow more in this period until household balance sheets recover.
But the annual budget deficit actually fell in 2012 to the lowest percentage of GDP since before the recession. This is what an economic failure looks like. And believe it or not, the US is light years ahead of the rest of the world on this. Our modest recovery outpaces other countries because of our deficit. We’re just not doing enough to stop the pain.





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I was thinking this morning of all the people who will be indebted for life thanks to predatory lending schemes across the board and the terrible housing crisis, who will die never having been able to right the ship, only to be ‘forgiven’ those debts upon their death, and so, gradually, indebtedness as a whole is inch by inch relieved – while the rest of us, badly burned, look at those who would lend to us with suspicion and mistrust and even hatred. We simple folk cannot figure out what is a bad deal but we know we are still surrounded by them. And parallel to this, healthcare becomes unaffordable, jobs become part time, bankrupcy hovers out of reach for the young saddled by student loan debt, and education becomes not worth it.
If this is the new normal then normal has become peonage, it has become serfdom, it has become slavery.
That’s an astonishing graph, really highlighting the magnitude of the current depression.
And yet, the political attack ads scream that the government is spending us into oblivion. Which of course is not true, but the ignoramus voters buy into the crazy.
Stupid people and duplicitous politicians all believe that you can run an economy the way you run a family budget. False, false, false.
Capitalism w/o growth = proliferating feudalism.
Consumers were over leveraged because the crapitalist economy used privatized Keynesianism to keep the illusion going. Crapitalists don’t believe in growth anymore. Why should you?
Capitalism is Fraud.
Very powerful and accurate assessment, juliania.
The “vision” is no longer about justice and humanity, it is about how best to “lock-in” tyranny and murderous oppression, all the better to exploit the endeavor of the people AND the natural environment upon which human life depends.
And those who would question this “direction” are assailed as “effin’ retards”, as the ones “at fault”, and subjected to limitless fear mongering by the hacks (paid or not), shills (intentional or shallow-thinking), and the utterly confused who cling, desperately, to faith in “more of the same”, believing that there is no other choice …
DW
Re: “Government purchases, in this case, becomes the spender of last resort. So government should borrow more in this period until household balance sheets recover.”
It took Japan 20 years for this process to complete with enough govt spending with zero austerity and full GDP. Koo compares data in Japan with our depression.
http://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue58/Koo58.pdf
How optimistic compared to 6 years ago. Compared to 60 years ago, not so good.
Outstanding post both of you. Outstanding.
I trake solace in that there ARE people who frequent FDL and read the posts, like yours, and are enlightened. I hope and pray that enough people will wake up and join the revolution. MY son is 35 and a Gen-X. I speak to him and his generation is very anti-republican and, like me, disappointed in Obama and the democrats. Maybe, MAYBE, that will result in change.
Thanks for that link – it’s the best explanation I’ve read of the difference between our balance sheet recession and a typical cyclical recession. The comparisons with Japan and the Eurozone countries are both chilling and comforting – as Igor said in Young Frankenstein, “It could be worse….”
Regarding the “demand gap”…
I’ve recently discovered the existence of “Social “Credit” theory of economics..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Credit
In this view a demand gap is inevitable under capitalism as the wages and other remuneration paid into the economy by the private sector will ALWAYS be less than the costs required to purchase the goods & services produced by the private sector.
This leads to a downward spiral of real wages and economic security for workers… just what has been observed for the last several decades.
Some type of external intervention is ALWAYS needed to keep the train barreling down the tracks. The problem is the government for decades has been intervening in ways that are helpful to a few while harming the many.
Now that the government can borrow money at essentially ZERO interest cost (potentially even at a NEGATIVE real interest rate) it seems logically absurd not to take advantage of the current situation.
Of course, that only applies if the government’s goal is to actually increase economic security for the citizenry. Which is becoming increasingly clear not to be the case, as the government has been brought under the control of what amounts to a band of looters trying to grab as much as they can before the whole edifice collapses.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Credit
During growth, the government could intervene to limit excessive extraction and ensure some of the growth went to labor. After growth, a capitalist government doesn’t know what the fuck to do.