As long as the only thing we’re going to talk about for the next few weeks in the election is taxes, I might as well provide the update. The Joint Committee on Taxation, the “CBO for taxes” as it were, the nonpartisan scorekeeper on tax policy, just released a report that should end all discussion about the Romney campaign’s plans for a deficit-neutral 20% across-the-board rate cut.
Repealing all itemized deductions in the U.S. tax code would pay for only a 4 percent cut in income tax rates, according to an estimate from the nonpartisan scorekeeper for Congress that casts doubt on Republicans’ ability to finance lower income-tax rates with base broadening.
The analysis by the Joint Committee on Taxation shows the arithmetical difficulty of an approach that assumes long-favored tax breaks such as deductions for mortgage interest and charitable contributions could be repealed instantly and completely. Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney proposes a 20 percent income-tax cut and says he would pay for it by limiting tax deductions, credits and exemptions.
There are some important differences between Romney’s approach and the JCT analysis that make it difficult to compare the 4 percent finding in the study with Romney’s promise of a 20 percent tax cut. Much of the base broadening in the analysis pays for some changes that Romney assumes in his starting point and for policies from the 2009 stimulus law that he may not want to extend. That means he would able to use the changes to deductions to cut rates by more than 4 percent.
The estimate assumes the expiration of the Bush-era tax cuts completely, and the base-broadening pays for the perennial patch to the alternative minimum tax (in fact, it pays for a repeal of it, as well as extensions of the increased child tax credit and Earned Income Tax Credit). That changes what the rate cut would actually look like, and so this is not a perfect indicator of the Romney plan. But the basic principle applies, and it’s so far from the reality of what Romney wants to achieve – a 20% rate cut without adding to the deficit, and without an increase on the middle class – that I think it serves as more evidence of the futility of the exercise. Indeed, many of the other tax expenditures that JCT doesn’t use here are ones that Romney has already taken off the table.
Mark Zandi, the Moody’s.com economist always trotted out to bless this or that plan, admitted today that the Romney plan is mathematically impossible.
For those that care about the deficit, it’s worth noting that the last major cut to taxes, the Bush-era tax cuts, accounts for the majority of the deficit problem currently, particularly in the out years. The tax cuts and the two wars will account for $9 trillion in deficits between their inauguration and 2019, under current policy. So throwing another $5 trillion tax cut that cannot be plausibly offset on the pile makes even less sense, especially in the constrained, non-MMT environment of Washington.
You can end the rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio ENTIRELY, in fact, by simply letting the Bush-era tax cuts expire. And I would do it, triggered by a return to normal employment and phased in gradually on the lower end of the scale. What I would not do is an ill-advised 20% tax cut that cannot be plausibly offset, and which would leak out at much greater rates to the rich, at the expense of the poor.




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But, but, but…..here’s who President Reasonable listens to: (Much more likely to happen and therefore much more dangerous.)
Bowles-Simpson sells these cuts of tax breaks to the middle-class to the Rs and Ds by offering up cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. Some bargain./s
Dude, you just got a shout out over at The Economist’s View. Great work!
Wake up, people. This so called “study” was carried out using the Arabic number system.
Who are you going to believe, Abu’l Hasan Ahmad ibn Ibrahim Al-Uqlidisi or Paul Ryan?
Obama needs to make this clear to people right now.
Because what Romney/Ryan are doing is planting in people’s heads that if they win everyone’s taxes are going to be cut 20%.
They must shatter this or more then anything it will be what people vote on.
It’s been proven that once people hear a lie several times they believe it.
No matter if they hear evidence to the contrary afterwards.
2 debates now the Rs have planted this and the refute has been miserable.
Bush era tax cuts?
Last time I noticed, the past four years can not be described as the Bush era, and elides the fact that – despite campaigning in 2008 on repealing those cuts – Obama extended them. And they will be extended again if Obama wins
“Bush era tax cuts” is a partisan disingenuity.
And I’d like to see the figures on how much the Obama wars are costing…
as well as the subsidies and tax breaks given the 65 billion earned last year – a record payday for the death merchants – by US arms dealers Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics and Raytheon, etc, all of which give substantial campaign donations to the warmongers of both criminal political parties so they can indulge their imperial bloodlust…
Second verse, same as the first.
How can they still be peddling this “trickle down”B.S.?
A 20% tax cut across the board will be paid for by reduced deductions.
The flaccid push back by Obama &co. is demoralizing.
It’s amazing that the Romney/Ryan base can even believe this.
They are supposedly the ones screaming about spending more then you have.
So in their fantasy world they believe a 16 trillion dollar debt can be repaid with cutting taxes 20% across the board.
And their own SS and Medicare shouldn’t be touched.
Part of me really wants a triple R win. Just so the Right knows who cut their throats without a doubt.
I think the elite don’t really care about the debt and the deficit.
It’s been used to devalue the dollar, they simply move their money to other currencies and preserve or increase their wealth,
They want the dollar devalued since they know that after they hollowed out manufacturing in the U.S. there is no way on a world stage we can be sitting so high compared to other countries.
And of course now they are in the position with the tremendous debt they ran up to use it as THE EXCUSE TO SLASH THE SAFETY NET.
We are running out of patches and repair kits for this political economy. We don’t need fiscal glide paths and rejiggers to this or that, either. We need exactly what we’re not getting, and haven’t gotten for over 3 decades, from our Congressional leaders and that is real math. Trickle down and regressive taxation, through loopholes, have destroyed the concept of progressive taxation as the rule in this country. And, I don’t want to here anymore baloney about increasing the export platform and growth through trade. Who doesn’t think that the biggest export for 30 years has been taxpayer money for corporate, and thus a wealthy minority’s personal gain, at a huge cost to the many. Whether it’s Wal-Mart in Mexico or advanced weaponry to Egypt, the result is the same. We are using the tax system to advance corporate and military imperialism at the expense of peace and prosperity at home. And, if you don’t believe that just walk through the latest deserted mall or new subdivision in your area. They are easy to find but impossible to talk about honestly using math. And, it ain’t going to change until the corporate culture, protected by our military, courts and security state is brought to heel. I’m not holding my breath about that happening. Save yourself if you can.
Should the deduction for mortgage interest be gradually phased out? It seems to me to benefit bankers more than anyone. It’s what makes 30-year mortgages possible. Yes, you will pay an absurd amount of interest on a loan with such a long term, but it’s not so painful if you get to deduct that interest on your income taxes. The effect is that the deduction inflates the prices of homes and lengthens the duration of mortgages. Both of these effects benefit the banks rather than the homeowner.
The tax deduction is taken into account by many home buyers when calculating the cost of buying a home. That inflates prices. That helps people that already own homes, but makes home ownership more difficult for many people. There is a correlation between home ownership and the stability of a community in terms of crime rates and the upkeep of property. So increasing home ownership rather than prices is what is in the interests of everyone except the bankers.
According to Romney all this tax jiggery-poopery will come out a wash, so why even bother? The only sensible reason to bother is if he had specific deductions or “loopholes” that he thought were unfair, but he doesn’t have any in mind and says he would work them out bipartisanly. There are only two logical reasons why he’s talking about this at all:
1) He thinks it will help him get elected if he goes around saying “20% tax cut”
2) He really just wants to cut taxes on the rich and doesn’t care if it is paid for.
The elites don’t care if people own their homes.
The banks need to have the prices propped up for a long, long time or they will be insolvent.
Well, actually they are busy offloading mortgages to the taxpayer so they are getting real money for inflated prices as fast as they can.
Why are they doing that?
Because the elites are determined to lower American wages to meet the rest of the world’s low rate.
So, how can people afford houses at these prices when their wages are going down? They can’t.
The banks know that and are trying to get as much money as they can now before the prices go down.
They also have the plan to see mortgages in tranches to hedge funds for cheap and then rent them.
People say this won’t work. But why not? The people of this country are so passive and docile they will turn their rent money over to an elite for their entire lives and not make a noise.
There is no boundary to greed or to the safety the elite need to protect their wealth from the supposed scourge of inflation or of taxation. So it follows that spending must be cut and unemployment serves to keep inflation in check. The threat of debt and deficits are nothing more than an excuse to push for austerity.
Taxes must be increased on the rich whether you follow MMT economics or not. Their is indeed a class war on going. It is time we started a redistribution of income from the rich to the middle class.
Frankly I an afraid of what will happen to all of us if Romney wins. The lies of these guys are beyond mere accidents.
Where is the media on the Romney Tax proposal. Here are a couple of things I’ve not seen covered:
1. Home mort deduction is a fixed amount and a relatively small deduction for a wealthy person. A wealthy person will gladly trade a 20% rate cut for fixed amounts deductions. For a wealthy person, he simply writes a check to the mortgage holder when the deduction ends, no big deal.
2. Romney’s plan KEEPS the carried interest scam tax rate of 15%. I was not aware of that till Biden mentioned it in the debate. How in the world could that go unreported in our “objective” corporate media ?
3. How can Romney be given EVEN MARGINAL credibility on ANY TAX ISSUE when he has refused to release his own taxes ? Those tax returns probably show he committed a felony in regards to offshore income, and then was given amnesty through the IRS amnesty program.
Romney’s plan lowers capitol gain tax rate to 0.
Gee, Romney wants to make Harry Reid right. That’s what Ryan means when he say work in a bipartisan fashion.
All excellent questions.
There is no such thing as the Bush “era.” We have used that term for no other President. It is a fiction that Democrats use to cover up for Obama and I have absolutely no clue why Democrats insist on covering up for Obama, especially Democrats who are critical of him at times.
Something happened either during the Bush administration or during Obama’s administration. The tax cuts under which our economy now labors were agreed to by Obama and McConnell, with Obama’s having done an end run around Congress to get that agreement, in December of 2010. Bush had squat to do them.
December 2010 was almost two full years into the Obama administration, long after Bush had any power over Congress or any power to veto. And, indeed, had Obama wished, he probably could have gotten Congress to repeal the Bush tax cuts before they expired by their own terms, on his inauguration day, in fact.
Why, oh why, are Democrats so reluctant to tell the truth about the Obama tax cuts?