With Hurricane Sandy moving over the Atlantic, this is the time where we all become amateur hurricane experts, talking about wind speed and storm surges. But because Sandy is on a path to hit an area not normally affected by storms, it could create more widespread damage, similar to what Hurricane Irene caused throughout the Northeast. And with the Northeast region already gripped by an economic slowdown, a destructive weather event could only collapse the economy further. And Sandy looks much more disruptive than Irene:
With computer models locked in on the eventuality of a punishing blow for East Coast from Hurricane Sandy (with the latest model runs favoring the northern mid-Atlantic), analyses suggest this storm may be unlike anything the region has ever experienced.
Model simulations have consistently simulated minimum pressures below 950 mb, which would be the lowest on record in many areas.
“MODELS SHOW PRESSURE WELL BEYOND WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NJ/NY COAST (EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS [HURRICANE])”, writes NOAA’s Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC).
The population density in the affected area, which could reach as much as 66 million Americans, plays a role here as well. Right now Hurricane Sandy is a category two hurricane but the weirdness of the barometric readings puts this into uncharted territory. In addition, that strength should increase as it moves up the Atlantic Coast, though what happens when it hits the nor’easters is anyone’s guess.
The New York Times adds.
“It really could be an extremely significant, historic storm,” said Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami, explaining that conditions are similar to those that created the famous “perfect storm” of 1991.
The chain of events that would make Hurricane Sandy develop into a grave threat to the coast involves a storm system known as a midlatitude trough that is moving across the country from the west. If the systems meet up, as many computer models predict, the storm over land could draw the hurricane in.
“Now you’ve got this giant storm complex with a lot of energy,” Mr. Feltgen said. The combined systems could produce high winds, heavy rains and storm surges that would cause extensive damage.
Regardless of precisely where the storm hits land, the size of it plus the population density affected assures a massive impact. So emergency preparedness is already at a premium. And the region must brace for the economic fallout. We’ve seen natural disasters have a definitive impact on GDP and unemployment rates in the past. A disruptive event in late October in a region with 1/5 of the nation’s population could show up on employment reports and economic indicators. A lot of economic activity washes away in the midst of a catastrophic storm.




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Where’s the evidence of that?
I would think that disasters (not unlike wars) would create more spending in an area and would increase employment for rebuilding.
Pay RushBo to speak for 24 hours … all that hot air would destroy Sandy !
Broken window fallacy
All that money Bush/Obama spent bailing out the banks and waging war all over the globe would sure come in handy right about now.
Frontline did a show, Climate of Doubt, that documents the climate change deniers takeover of the public dialog (now essentially non-existent) on all issues related to climate change.
It is stunning, the turn around. It used to be a bi-partisan issue, and now no one in the political sphere will talk about it at all, either side. This has pretty much happened in the last 2-3 years.
Terrifying.
Like a Totalitarian regime only with friendlier oppressors. Information is controlled by MSM and Government which is controlled by..PTB/Motu
Well, they’re not actually friendlier. They just put on a friendlier face. I know you know that. I just like the deception to be crystal clear.
I only recently saw Gore’s documentary.
Major hurricanes in November? Arctic polar icecap breaking up?
“That’s too much of a coincidence to be a coincidence.”
Yogi Berra
My “friendlier” was comparing to Stalin types but yeah…
If only a Yogi Berra could get elected President. Can’t see him torturing or droning anyone can you? He is already one of the most quoted people in America just think if he had eight years as POTUS.
I don’t know why you would make this assumption: >>>And with the Northeast region already gripped by an economic slowdown, a destructive weather event could only collapse the economy further.<<<
Typically, there is an uptick due to repairs and construction activity. Unless something happened caused a particular location to stop being viable (New Orleans comes to mind but Katrina only sped up economic forces already happening), but in general they help. If there was damage that caused someone to move away out of the area … but if a specific location/building was damaged, more likely the business will move within the same locale. To cause an economic collapse would be something that made businesses move out completely and also not move in (Fukushima, for example). One thing it might create havoc on is voting if lasts long enough or creates power shortage or damage to machine storage, etc. But depending on where, that might be a good thing overall.
Rebuilding is stimulative, simple as that.
Of course, economic activity comes to a halt during the storm, and if it’s bad enough, for a short time after, but the billions in emergency aid the feds would send would be an enormous boost to those economies.
I can’t imagine where that nonsense about a storm causing an economic collapse comes from. It would certainly be true if there were no emergency relief from the feds or other sources, but that is never the case, these days.
PS: I live near the gulf coast, so I have some experience with big storms. I want to warn people that until landfall is very near, the spot where the storm is predicted to hit is usually (but not always) the safest place to be. Definitely prepare if you seem to be in the path right now – but don’t relax if it doesn’t seem to be headed your way right now.
And if you intend to evacuate, LEAVE NOW! Your highway system was not designed with an evacuation in mind. If you wait, you can get caught in a massive traffic jam and be a sitting duck when the storm actually hits.
Interestingly, the path of this storm seems like it mirrors one I saw in a program about potential major disasters. The storm surge pushed ahead of such a storm, coming from such an angle, could be disastrous for New York and Washington D.C. in particular.
It could potentially completely flood and swamp the entire downtown area of both cities, if the storm surge is high enough.
Here in Atlantic City were bracing for what looks alot like a few other historic storms we’ve had in the past. Generally hurricanes turn away from the coast as they go by us on there way to England, not this time. Even the so called perfect storm that was also a hybrid Hurricane/Nor’easter event happened 200 miles north of us and even at that distance did a lot of damage here. This time though it looks as if our luck has run out and were facing some kind of combo of the 5 worst storms to hit here in modern times the 38′ coastal hurricane unnamed, the 44′ coastal hurricane unnamed the 62 Ash wed. nor’easter and the 91′ Perfect storm and the 92′ Xmas northeaster. All these storms were monsters causing a lot of damage, this one though seems to have all of the above and worse happening. It’s two storms that are going to merge right off the coast near us, at a full moon with a high pressure ridge over Newfoundland blocking the Franken storms movement to the east driving it on the beach and toward Canada. The worst part though is that NOAA is predicting it will slow down as it approaches the coast and take two days to get by us here. Two days with pounding 20 ft. + surf and 60+ kt. winds.
What effect will Hurricane Sandy (and it’s aftermath) have on voting, both in the presidential and northeastern state elections? Could this change the current dynamics of the projected electoral college count? Could Hurricane Sandy actually help Mitt Romney squeeze out a victory, if enough leaning-Obama northeastern states are devastated? Can President Obama call up the national guard in these northeastern states on election day, and even before, to facilitate voting, just in case their infrastructure is decimated, including voting locations? Just wondering.
Those are blue states, so it is possible that the storm could affect Democratic turnout for the worse. Losing one or more of the states that Obama has already counted as in his camp could be a devastating blow. There is an old saying about not counting chickens before they hatch that team Obama could have reason to remember with dismay, since he has basically been running for president of Ohio.
PS: Democratic turnout, historically, has always tended to be more affected negatively by inclement weather. Poor people are the hardest to get to the polls, that’s why Republicans clean up in everything but presidential election years.
I agree. To use a much smaller scale event as comparison, south central Pennsylvania had a small tornado with an accompanying damaging hail storm in the spring of 2011. In my neighborhood, 75% of homes had their roofs replaced, and we had our siding replaced as well. There was similar damage throughout this (mostly) rural county. Great business for roofers and body shops repairing hail damage.
A certain level of property damage is a good thing for the economy. If the tornado had been more powerful, if there had been long lasting (weeks) and widespread power outages, if many homes were destroyed, then certainly that would probably be viewed as an economic detriment. Some businesses would have ceased or curtailed operations for a time and individuals displaced would have been forced to spend money on temporary shelter.
It’s certainly way too early to predict which side of the economic scale (stimulative or depressive) this particular storm will fall. County by county, we’ll likely find some of both before it’s over.