This week, ex-banker Charles Morris, who was featured in the documentary Inside Job, brings us compelling evidence that countries with a large financial sector create lesser economic growth than countries that have restrained that sector. While a well-functioning financial system is key to growth, there’s a balance that needs to be struck, Morris writes:
Once the financial sector achieves a certain size, its continued expansion reduces economic growth, according to a new study by two senior economists at the Bank for International Settlements, Stephen Cecchetti and Enisse Kharroubi, using a large international data base stretching back more than 30 years [...]
An outsized financial sector expansion can actually reduce economic growth, according to their data. This relationship holds for country after country, and the tipping points are fairly consistent. When private credit grows to between 90 percent and 100 percent of gross domestic product, it is tilting toward too big. In the runup to the 1997-98 Asian financial crises, Thai private credit outstanding grew to 150 percent of GDP and growth turned sharply down. As soon as credit was ratcheted back to 95 percent of GDP, however, Thai productivity picked up sharply.
New Zealand’s economy offers much the same picture. As its financial sector expanded beyond the 100 percent mark, productivity dropped sharply, then rose again as credit was brought under control. Ireland and Spain show a similar pattern.
The sector that typically bears the brunt of hyper-financialization is manufacturing – especially the heavy industries that need working capital to finance materials and work in process. The next most damaged are research-and-development-intensive businesses, perhaps because finance siphons away too much of the best science and math talent. Whatever the reason, when American finance bulked up in the 2000s, there was a cataclysmic fall in manufacturing employment.
You can easily see real-world examples of how a giant financial sector stunts growth. Because of the consolidation of the banking sector, consumer loans invariably come from the leading mega-banks, allowing them to collude for higher fees. They took advantage of the Fed’s QE3 by increasing the spread they reap for individual loans, and now borrowing rates are nudging back up. Just as banks control the largest consumer loans, they are now pushing into the payday loan space. As they control bigger segments of the loan market, they take advantage of reduced competition to increase their profits at the expense of consumers. Clearly this stunts economic growth as the benefits flow to the top. Rent-seeking is damaging to a country’s economy.
Over-financialization is also closely aligned with inequality, as we’ve seen in America for the last 30 years. The Economist describes the two Americas, and they give a series of reasons for it, including the runaway financial sector.
A disproportionate, and growing, chunk of the very rich, however, have made their money in Wall Street rather than Main Street. An analysis by Mr Kaplan and Joshua Rauh, now of Stanford University, shows that the share of investment bankers among the top 0.1% is larger than the share of senior executives. America’s top 25 hedge-fund managers make more than all the CEOs of the S&P 500 combined. The financial industry’s outsize pay partly reflects its growth. For good or ill, finance’s share of American GDP soared between 1980 and 2007. Capital markets have globalised faster and more comprehensively than any other part of the economy, enabling hedge funds and other asset managers to deploy ever bigger pools of funds. According to Thomas Philippon of New York University and Ariell Reshef of the University of Virginia, financiers also have higher skill levels than they did a generation ago.
These fundamental economic shifts explain part of the rise in Wall Street incomes, but not all of it. Messrs Philippon and Reshef argue that between a third and half of Wall Street’s higher pay is unjustified, deriving from rents rather than productivity. But what explains these rents? Luigi Zingales of the University of Chicago points out that one source is the implicit subsidy (through lower borrowing costs) that banks enjoy by being too big to fail. He reckons this subsidy is worth some $30 billion a year, enough to fund a fair few bonuses. Others point to a broader cronyism between Wall Street and Washington over the past 30 years which has allowed financiers to tilt rules in their favour. The finance industry (along with property and insurance) employs more lobbyists than virtually any other industry, around four per Congressman.
Financiers have also been among the biggest winners from changes to America’s tax code. The country’s top rate of income tax has been repeatedly slashed since 1980, from 70% to 35%. By itself, that reduction has not greatly affected average tax burdens at the top (since there have been enough loopholes to ensure that few people paid the top rate). America’s richest have gained more from reductions in the capital-gains tax, which is now only 15%. Private-equity moguls have done particularly well, since the tax code allows them to classify their income as capital gains.
All of this argues for a significant curtailing of the sector as a means of economic self-preservation. President Obama hinted at a preference toward rules constraining executive pay in an interview with Rolling Stone this week, but it’s simply much easier to game compensation rules – many of which already exist and merely led to shifts into stock options from salary – than it is to break up the banks themselves. Until that occurs, banks will continue to use rent-seeking, outsized risk and outright fraud to capture record profits. As Morris writes in his opinion piece, banks have been settling fraud claims on a near-constant basis since 2000. It’s been the cost of doing business, and business has been good. And none of this has really stopped since the financial crisis. The way to reduce the risk to the economy, allow for faster growth, ensure accountability and shut down the Wall Street casino is to cut the banks down to size.





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” …Obama hinted at a preference toward rules constraining executive pay”.
Of course he did, Obama has no “interest” in breaking up the banks, he gains no future “benefit” for doing anything that might make a real difference.
Obama is “practical” and “pragmatic”, as are the Democrats, in general.
Thank you, however, DDay, for bringing us further evidence that there are reasonable and effective things that could be done, in fact should be done, one might even go so far as to say that breaking up the banks is something that MUST be done.
Ah, well … it will be years before what would really be rational, and in the genuine interests of the many, shall be done.
DW
It’s going to take a revolution to change it.
Bartoo is the new Zed. :)
Add him to the list of people who are never listened to by the PTB’s
If DW can ever get ahead of his leaf issues, he oughta compose a diary called ‘Unbreaking-up The Bank’.
It’s not just the size/concentration of the financial sector, in terms of credit, but also the kinds of products like Derivatives with high leveraging and the dearth of lending to small businesses, that are endangering the economy and hampering a recovery for all but a small number of elites. It’s going to take another crash before any serious reform happens.
Reason #15,958 why Mitt Romney’s a dick. Glen Hubbard, who was featured in Inside Job, is Rombot’s chief economic advisor
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/capital-markets-%C3%BCber-alles-what-mitt-romneys-economic-advisor-goldman-sachs-and-ny-fed-really-t
Ah.
Yes, well AitchD, I fully intend, when I get a round to-it, to arrange a large bankquit, and invite everyone to part icipate … it might require a lengthy withdrawal … period.
Remember.
You heard it zed here, first.
(BTW, after I invent the next giant leaf rake, based on your clever broom pushy prototype, I … um … cancel that! AFTER I go into the manufacture of indispensable round to-its, since there seems a great demand for such things, even Obama says that he will “do things” when he “gets a round to-it”, and that is what my daughter always says, regarding the redding “up” of her room … so I know that my invention will sell like the proverbial hot cakes, wives will snap them up for their hubbies, one imagines, then I intend to be set in my ways for life. At which point we can get a round to-it that WILL break up banks … and not merely those little plastic piggy-banks but the big ones specializing “in” criminal fraud and so forth and so on …)
Many people have told me that they expect to win the lottery and solve their financial stress in that fashion, while I, on the other foot, have an actual “plan” … I expect to sell “shares” when I get a …
;~DW
Thank you again, David, for another excellent and comprehensive post. Since you mention New Zealand in your first quote, here’s a Sunday post (they’re a day ahead) from the NZ Herald:
Disgraced Nathans chief celebrates after prison release.
Mum-and-dad investors who lost their life savings in a finance company collapse are furious its former chairman has booked out a swanky waterfront restaurant for a party soon after his release. Former Nathans Finance chairman Roger Moses served 8 months of a two-year and two-month jail sentence after he was found guilty of breaching the Securities Act. Now, he has invited friends and supporters to Sails Restaurant in Auckland’s Westhaven marina, telling them he wants to celebrate with them. He has booked out the entire restaurant, which seats 150 people, for next Sunday. Sails Restaurant charges $13,500 to book at capacity for an entire evening.
Award-winning chef Jason Blackie serves guests a set menu which includes duck leg confit entrees, mains of Angus pure beef fillet on mushroom and onion flan or free range chicken with serrano ham and gnocchi, and concludes with desserts including Tahitian vanilla creme brulee. The $13,500 does not include alcohol: the restaurant has 200 wines on its list and, even if Moses ordered the cheapest wines for his guests, he might be looking at an additional bill of more than $4000.
A source said many people in the business community were disgusted at the show of excess, and some of his guests had torn up their invitations.
Kenneth Roger Moses was charged, convicted and jailed after Nathans Finance went into receivership in August 2007 owing more than 7000 investors $174 million. Fellow director Mervyn Doolan was also sentenced to prison at the end of their 12-week trial, but director Donald Young received nine months’ home detention and 300 hours’ community work. Green Bay pensioner John Addis who, with wife Pamela, lost $29,000 in the collapse, said he was disgusted by Moses’ party plans…
“I can understand that his family will be happy to get him back home, but what happened to us was pretty disgraceful.” Moses was ordered to pay $425,000 in reparations but Addis said he and his wife received “only a few hundred dollars”… More than 7000 people lost money in the collapse.
Moses could not be reached yesterday, and no one was home last night at his Remuera apartment.
By Cherie Howie
:) to all.
Out. Gotta go buy a new ceiling lamp. Oh joy.
But, we’ll have fun anyway. :) again.
“…I fully intend, when I get a round to-it, to arrange a large bankquit, and invite everyone to part icipate…”
I hear’t said The Sails Restaurant in Auckland can be had for a cool $NZ13500 DW, so that’s a steal at the current rate of exchange, (posted the menu above). And that kiwi beef is grassfed, doncha know? And I think that would qualify as almost the lengthiest withdrawal – we don’t really fancy the Antarctic, do we?
I’m in!
I rilly wanted to say ‘If DW ever reds up his yard ‘n at’. It’s good to see you’re a Lert, DW, as Lerts are in such short supply.
Book Salon up with Sasha Issenberg’s The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns hosted by Christina Bellantoni
I lived in the east, Raleigh, NC, with many large Oak trees shadowing my house. I raked for some years.
Then I bought a good mover and mowed up the leaves. I never raked again.
Print this and wait namore …
Since it appears the President isn’t about to put a halt to the launching of drone strikes anytime soon, might I suggest that, as Commander in Chief, he give the order that these flying killer robots henceforth be directed at the appropriate targets? The defense hawks couldn’t really argue because, ya know, “Defense Spending!” and “America, Fuck yeah!” Further, the re-purposing of these vehicles could be spun (on, say, “Morning Joe,” for example) as a new-and-improved “economic stimulus package” which could be immediately deployed without any of that pesky and time-consuming interference from Congress. (Never mind the controversial legal implications. We can deal with those particulars at some later date, right?) Finally, if the use of such a strategy should ever turn out to result in unforeseen “collateral damage” (which is too often the case in these matters), well, who gives a shit about Lloyd Blankfein’s crib on Central Park West, anyway? It ain’t like he would need it, what with his already having been remanded to ADX Florence, and all.
Hey…I’m just trying to “think outside the box.” Your mileage may vary.
And on a slightly-related note, here’s Moyers, Freeland and Taibbi from about a week ago. If you haven’t already seen the piece, it’s definitely worth your time.
At a more basic level, many private citizens must resort to credit cards, payday lenders, and banking institutions when they earn so little they MUST borrow to survive. As the population of those in poverty increases, so does borrowing. Would be nice if they got a raise. Employers and the PTB know that the credit cycle begins at home. Keep’em poor and ignorant and you get rich without anyone complaining.
Hey Shoto ,this week and last week were both really good .I wish Moyers would have a show on which past great guests gave or created some plan-b guidance when the next blowout ,which they all believe is inevitable ,occurs and the ball is momentarily in our court .We’re talking Shock Doctrine ,so the notion of rational people deciding anything during disaster hysteria is manifestly irrational.I have family throughout the deep South,and they say many tea-party elements and the more radical right are hoping for it as an opportunity for ”their bankster solution”.
These fucks think God ,guns and gold will make them prevail ,and even though I care nothing about the welfare of these Wall St. thugs,I don;t want some redneck confrontation being the excuse for hardening our police-state apparatus .
Fools to the right and a fool blog in the center telling us it took 3 fucking decades to discover the unfettered expansion of financial capital will diminish industrial capital .Thorstein Veblin wrote extensively about the inherent clash between business and industry nearly century ago.I guess one can’t milk that grant welfare for three decades by averring a strong grasp of the obvious .
Anyone over the age of 30 in 2001 should have known the crash was going to come soon because the regulatory policies were a rerun of the Reagan policies that led to the Wall Street and real estate crashes of the 80s which took five years to be worked out, defeating HW Bush. The 2008 TARP was needed earlier than the first Bush TARP to bailout the banks and clean up the mortgage market because after the Reagan mess was cleaned up, voters elected more Republicans who blamed FDR for the Reagan bubbles and crash, and that be deregulating no more bailouts would be required. And in anger over the 2008 bailouts, voters elected the Tea Party Republicans who blame FDR for the Bush bubble and crash. I public school I hated history, but I did learn, those who fail to learn from history will repeat it, and it is clear that conservatives erased history of Reagan and replaced it with fiction to enable a repeat of history.
Will Republicans control regulatory policy? If yes, the crash can’t be more than 15 years away.
By Gernot Wagner and Martin Weitzman via Mark Thoma, a hint at the game?
The authors introduce some participating forums that already exist.
Hey mulp,surely you haven’t revised history to make the mortgage/bankster mess a Republican phenomenon .I can remember the Clinton/Rubin deregulation,Obama staffing himself with same criminals ,Alan Cranston with the Keating Five ,and I believe Paul Volcker is a dem ,and I know he worked with Reagan in destroying our economy to retain high interest rates to save the syndicated banksters whose sovereign loans were being repaid by recycling Fed money to SA and having it being re-funnelled back into bankster coffers .You know ,the same scam the German banksters are now using to fleece the peripheries .
Sorry dude ,but it has been an egregious bipartisan crime spree since the Wriston salad days .Its integral to corporate globalization ,NAFTA ,GATT and Laura “”fast track”" Tyson was peddling both for the dems .If you want to make some moral distinction between Jamie Dimon ,a dem ,and Phil Gramm ,a pub,cool ,but I liberated my thinking from both mob families .
15 years ? Call me out as an alarmist know-nothing if the crash makes it a day more than 15 months .I think fewer than 15 weeks is very plausible Knowing the Fed is using QE for planned devaluation ,we can be sure once inflation psychology spins velocity ,it’s a blowout .There is already enough liquidity sloshing around the globe to trigger it .
I have plotted some comparative data from
http://www.gfmag.com/tools/global-database/economic-data/10403-total-debt-to-gdp.html#axzz1ZollYTTS
at http://pshakkottai.wordpress.com/2011/10/06/replotting-data-from-total-debt-to-gdp-global-finance/
. The data tabulates (cumulative debts/GDP in year 2009), accumulated from year 1980. In these plots, cumulative government debt, also in the form of the same ratio, is separated from the total debt which is normally discussed as lumped together in mainstream media. This ratio is replotted separating the government debt from other debts.
http://pshakkottai.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/deficits.xlsx
This is figure 1. It is a plot of ‘government debt’ vs. (non_financial_business debt + household debt +financial_business debt). The growing economies which don’t talk about ‘unsustainable_level ‘ debt are seen to define a line near India, Brazil, Italy and Japan. They are monetarily sovereign except Italy and all Euro nations, Countries with high unemployment like UK, USA and Spain have low government_debt even though UK and USA are monetarily sovereign and can create money with abandon.
Figure 2, plotted above, is a plot excluding the financial_industry debt. The character of this plot is similar except the debts and deficits are of the same order. Note that government debt in a given year is the source of surplus in the private sector (for sovereign money creators .) The plot shows government debt and private debt keep in step cumulatively. All the cumulative private sector debts have produced cumulative wealth, like houses, factories and other business enterprises.
Adding financial debt (in figure 1) makes the plots look more dismal, perhaps, indicating the non-productive feature of the financial industry.
I have plotted some comparative data from http://www.gfmag.com/tools/global-database/economic-data/10403-total-debt-to-gdp.html#axzz1ZollYTTS at
http://pshakkottai.wordpress.com/2011/10/06/replotting-data-from-total-debt-to-gdp-global-finance/ . The data tabulates (cumulative debts/GDP in year 2009), accumulated from year 1980. In these plots, cumulative government debt, also in the form of the same ratio, is separated from the total debt which is normally discussed as lumped together in mainstream media. This ratio is replotted separating the government debt from other debts.
http://pshakkottai.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/deficits.xlsx
This is figure 1. It is a plot of ‘government debt’ vs. (non_financial_business debt + household debt +financial_business debt). The growing economies which don’t talk about ‘unsustainable_level ‘ debt are seen to define a line near India, Brazil, Italy and Japan. They are monetarily sovereign except Italy and all Euro nations, Countries with high unemployment like UK, USA and Spain have low government_debt even though UK and USA are monetarily sovereign and can create money with abandon.
Figure 2, plotted above, is a plot excluding the financial_industry debt. The character of this plot is similar except the debts and deficits are of the same order. Note that government debt in a given year is the source of surplus in the private sector (for sovereign money creators .) The plot shows government debt and private debt keep in step cumulatively. All the cumulative private sector debts have produced cumulative wealth, like houses, factories and other business enterprises.The large arrow in fig 2 shows that USA can double its govt debt to be in the same relative position as Japan and India to be progressive.
Adding financial debt (in figure 1) makes the plots look more dismal, perhaps, indicating the non-productive feature of the financial industry.
Here is an interesting essay by Patrice Ayme on the huge amounts of energy required. “***
“Gloo Gloo And Geoengineering Will Not Work Without Thermonuclear Reactors:
As the planet is shocked into a high CO2 world, strange things are happening. For example Antarctic sea ice has been spreading, which is counter-intuitive (since Arctic ice is shrinking so fast, it’s imaginable there will be none within five summers!)
Antarctica sea ice has spread due to higher winds caused by warming. That (part of) Antarctica is cooling is not true in my opinion. Snowfall is augmenting, as it is in the Himalaya, but that is to be expected from warming.
Antarctica is already melting, and, ultimately, sea level will rise 70 meters, drowning the capitals of finance supreme, a sort of justice.
Because of non linear effects it all could go very fast. And no geoengineering short of thermonuclear reactors (to freeze the CO2), or a nuclear winter (soon to be fetched), will change anything… If one keeps on refusing putting giant taxes on burning fossils…
What I am saying is that other suggested “geo-engineering” will not work.
And think about it: geo-engineering on Mars looks insurmountable, with present technology. So why should it be easier on Earth?
The analogy is smarter than it looks: the total mass of the medium to be changed on Mars is a tenuous atmosphere. The equivalent system on earth is made of the Earth’s atmosphere, plus its oceans. This is roughly 60 earth atmosphere. However the atmosphere of Mars is 25 teratonnes. The atmosphere of Earth is 5,148 teratonnes, 200 times more. So, multiplying this by 60, or, at least fifty (if one restricts to the volume affected by Earth’s greatest sea currents), one sees that influencing the terrestrial atmosphere-thalassosphere requires an effort 10,000 greater on Earth than Mars.
So there is no way out, but mitigation. That is, conservation.
Why thermonuclear reactors? Because controlled thermonuclear fusion will provide us with giant amounts of energy, very cheaply (once it’s fully mastered, which will take a while, even after the first generations of civilian thermonuclear reactors come on line, as they will use primitive, not super clean fusion. Whatever we do with geoengineering, it will require giant amounts of energy.” from
http://patriceayme.wordpress.com/2012/10/23/truth-celebritism-fusion-geoengineering-231012/
Public debt is a fiction ,a self-imposed construct for northward wealth distribution.Financial debt is unknowable with over $800trillion in swaps unsettled ,dark pools and other shadow banking activities .The Fed is using QE to purchase $3trillion in mark -to myth mortgage sludge by devaluing our money ,so there’s a feather in their cap ,but you surely must realize the debt could not possibly be repaid by anyone ,it can only be cheapened via hyper-inflation .It has never been about debt repayment ,it’s about leveraging the juice to steal real wealth .It should make sense if you know about juice loans to run loan-sharking and protection rackets ?Well ,maybe not ,but you have an impressive work ethic for sure .
Very interesting comments, pshakkottai, and much appreciated.
There IS no way “out” or actually “forward” but “conservation”, the INTENSIVE rather than EXTENSIVE, the wise and considered “use” of “resources.
It is always interesting to me, that the thermonuclear reactor about 90 odd million miles away which powers the vast, vast majority of this planet’s life sustaining “systems”, is not seen to provide sufficient EXCESS energy that MOST of our rational needs for energy are quite available.
Those processes requiring more concentrated energy inputs, and there are some, do need to be separately addressed. However, as many of those “needs” are, frankly, tied to destruction, to “military” and “defense” sorts of “applications”, a genuine consensus ought to surround any “necessity” attributed to them.
For instance, it was argued, to use an example from another “sphere”, that the bank bailouts were necessary to “save” the economic system … yet NO ONE asked just WHAT was being “saved”, to WHOSE specific benefit and WHY. NO questions were raised regarding the fundamental “natures” of the system itself … of either its essential and practically necessary utility and its actual fairness in making available, to EVERYONE, not just a few, those resources necessary to life and to the advantage of all members of society. A economic “system” is simply a “game” constructed by human beings, to, supply those resources, and such a game can be, and sometimes must be, changed for the better. The common good.
So, huge sums were made “available” to a few, with no “strings” or honest “expectations” attached. And thus, the prevailing “system” was saved … and nothing was changed … even those things which should have been changed, so, it will “happen” again …
Which “episode” should serve as a cautionary “tale” … of one kind or another.
When it comers to the planet, its “utility” must be apparent, especially to a species which claims superior intellect and understanding … or so, one might think or imagine.
AS well, it might be understood that the place does not “belong”, in the sense of “ownership”, to a few, or even to everyone, we just have the “use” of it … for a time … and then it, as is the nature of things, becomes the world of others, the next generations.
Perhaps, the selfish and self-absorbed, have lost rational and reasonable grasp of that truth?
DW
Hi DW ,you are correct that we should be stewards of the land .Every indigenous culture in the world celebrates being one with nature,while celebrating its ability to sustain us ,and having no comprehension of how modernity has concocted a perverted dualism with life .However ,I do know via Hoover that the ruling order adhere to the Malthusian belief that depopulation is the best way of saving the environment .Yes ,we are talking about equilibrium logic that is good with mass starvation ,genocide ,and disease pandemics .
You are also correct regarding economics ,it is not a science but instead a lot of of quackery ensconced in math .Tweak econ101 ,get a few good accountants , then we can innovate ,produce and compete while being our own boss .We should be selling to globalists ,not relying on their products and borrowing this meaningless fiat paper with their promises conflated to God’s will .Back to the future .
n