The US economy continues to add jobs, and October’s establishment survey showed a solid increase of 171,000, with upward revisions to August (to +192,000 from +142,000) and September (to +148,000 from +114,000). The unemployment rate in the household survey, however, which went down markedly to 7.8% in September, ticked up to 7.9% in October. The Bureau of Labor Statistics described this as “essentially unchanged,” so it’s more like a rounding error than an actual increase in the rate.
The BLS made sure to note that Hurricane Sandy did not affect the survey, though I would imagine it will impact future revisions in October:
Hurricane Sandy had no discernable effect on the employment and unemployment data for October. Household survey data collection was completed before the storm, and establishment survey data collection rates were within normal ranges nationally and for the affected areas.
Small increases in the labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio can account for the small increase in the topline unemployment rate. The EPOP, at 58.8%, is up year-over-year, though the labor force participation rate (63.8%) is still down. The number of unemployed persons in the household survey increased to 12.258 million after a sharp decrease in the previous month’s survey. But total employment rose by 470,000. This accounts for the lack of major change on that topline rate.
Long-term unemployment remains a problem, accounting for 40.6% of the unemployed. The BLS defines long-term unemployment as over 27 weeks. They do not count those who dropped out of the labor force; 2.4 million are described as “marginally attached to the labor force” and not counted in the long-term unemployed. Part-time employment decreased, possibly suggesting that many of them were converted to full-time work.
The establishment survey’s increase of 171,000 jobs in October is above the average of 157,000 for 2012. These numbers show modest but unspectacular job growth, ensuring that the unemployment rate will remain elevated for the near future. Professional and business services did the best among professions (+51,000), while health care continued its run with an increase of 31,000 jobs. Retail trade and hospitality – service sector jobs – grew as well. Manufacturing was up 13,000 and construction up 17,000. The public sector showed a loss of 13,000 jobs, stubbornly continuing its role as a drag on employment. If budget cuts from the sequester go through, that trend will only accelerate.
The average workweek hours for all employees remained unchanged, and the manufacturing workweek actually fell. Hourly earnings were down by 1 cent. This is a very ominous spot of the report.
Overall, the report shows modest growth in jobs, with the economy bumping along. The major headwinds are all at the foot of Congress and the fiscal slope. It’s their decision whether or not to pull the economy back into recession.





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I imagine much of this shift is due to seasonal work as the holidays approach.
There are 4 new housing starts in the last two weeks in my neighborhood. I found this very interesting, but then learned that DR Horton is building the homes without a buyer lined up yet.
As always, DDay, thanks for the update. I guess OilBomber kept his promise about 8% unemployment.
This only applies if you assume 7.9% is the new normal. A small change in an outlier should be described as a small change in an outlier, not as a small change IMHO. Its easy to forget even without the partisan propaganda floating about.
Statistics = Bullshit. Plain and simple. Economy is going down not up. Austerity will kill more poor people and lower middle class and the numbers will “look good” and the D.C. Beltway will praise themselves. Third world America is already here and anyone working in social services will tell you that. What is the unemployment rate if you count people like they were counted in the Great Depression? Government statistics have the same reliability as a Rasmussen poll.
Unfortunately, I am reluctant to be the least bit optimistic about the change in unemployment numbers. A job is not a job. McJobs are not jobs that put roofs over people’s heads or allow people to get ahead in this world, they are merely servant class jobs that let people make barely enough to survive (if they are lucky and work overtime) and far from enough to allow them to focus on society beyond their immediate needs. These positions keep people stupid, uninformed and reactionary.
Yeah, more people are making minimum wage or are temporary seasonal or construction workers, wow. I bet they can plan for their kid’s education or retirement with such a firm footing beneath them.
What a crock of shit.
Yep, they actually believe we are stupid enough to believe that in a matter of a few months the economy picked up steam and the unemployment rate just dropped in time for Tuesday’s rigged election.
It’s hard not to be cynical after the past 12 years.
That’s right.
Indeed.
Yep,i agree.
Until the people reclaim this country from big business, we are doomed. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t believe we ever will. I think on the whole this country is corrupted to its core. The fact that multinational CEOs are bound by law to maximize stakeholder profit, they are soulless entities taking the power from the people and in turn making the people a commodity to be traded and sold at will, with no regard for the lives they impact beyond the public relations impact of a given decision.
Until the people decide to stop buying the two party bullshit, we’re done. Perhaps I haven’t been nearly as frequent a visitor here as late due to my own issues, but it seems like things are slowing down here at the lake. Is it just me? Or does that seem to be true?
I beg to differ with the statement that Mcjobs keep people stupid, uninformed, and reactionary.
People keep people stupid, uninformed and reactionary, not work positions. I’ve known quite a few intelligent people within the service sector and did my own stint as a Taco Bell employee(and did not have it affect my IQ a little bit.)
Part of the problem is this prevailing idea somehow that the people at the bottom of the income ladder are stupid. Many are not. Many just find themselves in a rut that does not easily offer an escape because as you point out it is economically infeasible for them to get ahead without digging the ditch deeper(taking out loans for schooling or housing or whatnot.)
I see nothing to confute the conspiracy theories about the job numbers. Obama needed a good jobs report at this point…and he got one.
Similarly, the President has just the lead he needs in the swing states–and nowhere else.
You don’t have to be wearing a tin hat to see the sublime convenience of these figures.
http://youtu.be/vPRKoEVtqR8
It’s hard not be suicidal after the past 12 years.
If you factor in that the current crop of the rich and powerful are really low intelligence third generation wealthy or more you might see some hope for the near future. They are fouling their own nest and some of the sane economists I listen to are saying they are killing their own wealth structure. Shit will hit the fan and I am hoping Dr. Stein is right that this tipping point for our society will become a turning point to a real democracy where life is good and common sense rules giving the greatest good to the greatest amount of people. Majority rules with respect to minority rights. ( I learned that in 6th grade many years ago). Having said that all your cynical comments are the order of the day and I do agree FDLers are war weary and at a low ebb on the morale side.
Hi, wirerat1. I don’t come here often anymore, but I do remember you from a few years back when I was active at the Lake. I always enjoyed reading your posts and found them to be well crafted and thought provoking.
Yes, there is less happening here these days. It’s probably the result of expectations lowered to the level of despair.
I dealt with this country’s “new reality” by joining the Wobblies. The IWW provides good comradeship and direct action beats posting on internet sites anyday.
Here’s wishing you the best. Solidarity!
How is any of this good. We need at least 300k jobs a month just to keep pace with immigration, gradutes, etc. Add to that pay has slipped a little. No need to try and sugar coat this DD, this economy has flatlined over the last few years, unless you’re a 1 percenter wall street type.
1%ers increased their wealth overall last year by 4-7% on money that cost them 0% so they are doing great and most of the wealth of the world is located in the U.S. As Naomi Klein always says we have a distribution problem not a resource problem.
Your statements are BS. The jobs report goes hand in hand with what going on in the economy.
To verify, just check out the job listings on Craigslist. If one has the skills there are plenty of jobs available. Craigslist job posting have been trending up all Fall.
… and you do realize that head hunters and other corporations post listings for positions with qualifications that they know good and well no one in the general community can meet, right? From there, businesses build their case for outsourcing or H1B visas. If the local community can’t meet their needs, businesses make their case for whatever maximizes stockholder value.
The whole notion of “..if one has the skills” nonsense and if taken at face value should be a wake up call to the miserable state our educational system has fallen. Instead we argue about the teacher’s unions and how much teachers make, but not the CEOs making more money than they could spend in several lifetimes.
“If one has the skills”, really? In other words if someone was lucky enough to have studied the right thing in school or who bought into the student loan racket. Yeah, that’s great. They have to make a pipe dream like that for the “American dream” otherwise their racket falls apart.
Insane. Craig’s List is now the go to place for quality employment. How the might have fallen.
Thank you for beating me to it with this response because it says it all. I used to do some recruiting and they were bringing in foreign Engineers by the boatload on H1B’s because they would keep pay down and wouldn’t ask for raises.
Once upon a time it was an employers responsibility to create people that had the skill sets they needed. Nowadays its the employees responsibility to put themselves in debt to fill a position and they are supposed to do so with no guarantee that the compensation will not fall or that the job will ultimately pay for that training.
It’s insanity.