
The self-sorting of the electorate into coastal and interior enclaves means that the states that “matter” have condensed
Today, the two major-party candidates for President are flying around the same battleground states they have since the beginning of the general election.
All rallies in the past several months have taken place in just 10 states – and Pennsylvania, the 10th, was a late addition this weekend as part of a Hail Mary strategy by Mitt Romney to find another state to put in play to give him a chance at an Electoral College victory.
The tyranny of the Electoral College – a process that elevates an unrepresentative, often random set of states to stand in for the voting preferences of the entire country – distorts our democracy in fundamental ways.
Adam Liptak points out that John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon visited almost every state in the Union a little over 50 years ago. Now, polling is sophisticated enough and segmenting of the electorate durable enough that 80% of the voters get disenfranchised in the Presidential race before they ever reach the polls. Governance suffers from this insistent focus on a shrinking handful of swing states:
The shrinking electoral battleground has altered the nature of American self-governance. There is evidence that the current system is depressing turnout, distorting policy, weakening accountability and effectively disenfranchising the vast majority of Americans [...]
This state of affairs is not rooted in the Constitution, but rather in the fact that almost every state chooses to allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis. A candidate confident of winning or sure of losing a bare majority of a state’s popular vote has no reason to expend resources there.
Some of the people who live in the nation’s spectator states return the favor by staying home from the polls. In 2008, voter turnout in the 15 states that received the bulk of the candidates’ attention was 67 percent. In the remaining 35 states, it was six points lower.
Large states like California, New York and Texas were swing states as recently as 30 years ago. Now, the self-sorting of the electorate into coastal and interior enclaves means that the states that “matter” have condensed.
There’s only one decent answer to this state of affairs, one that allows Ohio and Iowa issues to stand in for national issues, one that turns policymaking completely on its head. We need a National Popular Vote to determine the President of the United States, just like a district-wide popular vote determines the winner of a Congressional seat, just like a statewide popular vote determines the winner of a race for Senate or Governor. No country in the world uses a system as byzantine as the Electoral College, and indeed no constituency inside the United States uses something so daft. If the Electoral College were proposed today, constitutional scholars would rightly point out that it violated the 14th amendment right to equal protection under the law. It’s not just that, by virtue of the way in which electoral votes get apportioned, small states have much more weight in the election than large states. It’s that pretty much no states save for a handful in our self-sorting 21 century play a role at all. There’s no reason for this to continue.
The National Popular Vote interstate compact has 49% of the participation it needs to simply end-around the Electoral College without amending the Constitution. States simply agree to deliver their electoral votes, as is their prerogative, to the winner of the popular vote. This would change elections in profound ways that aren’t fully known; anyone who tells you that it would mean “candidates would only campaign in big cities” (as opposed to only campaigning in big cities in certain states?) isn’t telling the truth. There’s no way to know how it would affect the political landscape, and that’s a point in its favor.
Until the Electoral College is phased out, the elections like the one we will hold tomorrow are fake. They don’t express the preferences of the electorate. They express the preferences of a small clatch of states battered by hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign ads. We will have no idea who “the voters” really want to see in the White House over the next four years. Not until we go with the radical notion that the person who gets the most votes should serve as President.





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Yes. You are one hundred percent correct, DDay.
Consider, DDay, the Electoral College, its problems, and its essentially anti-democratic “nature”, gets coverage ONLY during the run-up to the presidential election, over and over, again.
Here it is ONE day from the election and you post an excellent summation of those problems and “nature”..
Might you consider, in future, re-posting this realistic and spot-on description, EACH and EVERY month, starting the Wednesday AFTER election day, that is, the day after tomorrow, and one a month, thereafter, every month until the presidential election of 2016, assuming we “have” one, of course?
Something as important as what you have shared deserves to be front-paged AND repeated as often as necessary that everyone finally gets how serious an issue it is.
Not long ago, at a Book Salon, the author of the book, waxed eloquent about the roll that “science” now “plays” in “getting out the vote”. It seems that psychologists, sociologists and other Social Scientists are bending their every effort to “sell” certain perceptions or feelings about candidates … sort of taking the Madison Avenue “approach” and hyping it up on the equivalent of “scientific” … “steriods” to “move” or “sway” voters to a certain “place”, a certain, “action”.
Personally, I have a few wee problems with such manipulation, more than a few, actually. However, the author, apparently, and the legacy parties, obviously, do not seem to see anything wrong with such an “approach” any more than the legacy parties appear to see, or notice, anything wrong with the Electoral College … apparently, judging from the roaring silence of the legacy parties.
Anyhow, IF we are to “End the Sham”, then we shall need a very well-informed and articulate electorate which is not shy about INSISTING upon the change which, you and I agree, is NECESSARY.
Therefore, any help you might be able to offer, by way of consistent repetition, would be very much appreciated … just as continuing, relentless, efforts to actually build viable third parties needs to be enjoined EVERY single day between tomorrow’s “outcome” and the next opportunity of “exercising the franchise”, in a MORE meaningful fashion, might present itself.
Thank you, for the lend of your ears, DDay, and my great appreciation, in advance, for your consistency and conscience, in the forty-eight months ahead … until the next time …
DW
Electoral vote/popular vote – 2 roads to the same place:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/expd/8149915856/
What would the process be to phase the EC out? Constitutional Amendment? I just found out that protecting the Electoral College is a plank in the GOP 2012 platform. Is this a result of unfettered right wing paranoia or is the EC formally under attack by more than just you DD?
Now why would the two look-alike parties make any effort to change a situation that they’ve obviously striven to attain? A national popular vote would naturally lead to a more open campaign with a broader spectrum of challenges to the candidates. That’s what they obviously want to avoid. It’s similar to the two-party “debates” which are also controlled by the the two tweedledum-tweedledee majors.
JFK campaigned in all fifty states? JFK held wonderfully literate press conferences, too. Obama merely talked about opening up government.
It does no good to live too much in the past, which has passed.
Well yeah, that’s the main idea.
It’s a state function.
“Elections in the United States are a public relations industry.”-Kevin Gosztola
“Until the Electoral College is phased out, the elections like the one we will hold tomorrow are fake”-David Dayen
“Most ignorance is vincible ignorance. We don’t know because we don’t want to know.” – Aldous Huxley
The unvarnished truth of the American Empire is too grotesque for adults to accept as objective reality. Pretending to live in a democracy is mass delusion, like so many other mass delusions that U.S. citizens fall prey to. Investment bubbles work off of mass delusions, the “War on…” only continues because of mass delusions. Inequality continues because of the mass delusion that “anyone” can prosper in the United States. The propaganda spewing from our screens 24/7 is so effective that U.S. citizens can’t think beyond the programming and indoctrination that began in their childhoods
Obama has offered crystal-clear proof, if any were needed, under the present system, that it really doesn’t matter which lever is pulled on November 6th. It might as well be a slot machine.
My comment @3 was thinking National Popular Vote was a phrase not an organization. Please ignore main question but in reading more about it I do wonder why saving the EC is part of the R party’s platform if 61% of polled republicans also want it phased out(PPP poll in CA).
I can not think of an argument for getting rid of the Electoral College that does not apply to the Senate.
DDay, I happen to disagree with you on this subject. While I would agree with the Compact idea of a 2/3 majority of States agreeing to a proportional division of EV’s to break the Legacy Parties stranglehold on our governance, I do not agree with going with the popular vote. Agreeing to allocate the EV’s to the popular vote winner, locks in the Legacy Parties hold on the process.
The compromise (something we used to do) of the Electoral College was agreed to by our Founders who recognized that small population states would be dominated by the larger population states without some kind of mechanism to equalize the influence. For instance, using the above EV map numbers, of the original 13 colonies, it would only take four states (NY, NJ, PA and MD or CT)to control the election of the Federal government. The other nine would be shut out of the process. At the time the USA was formed, it would probably have been only three (NY,NJ and PA)needed to gain control. Without this compromise, it is very likely the USA would have never happened.
As a resident of Wisconsin, an area the size of New England, I welcome the moderating effects of the EC. Moreover, I think the Electoral College issue is a red herring compared to the real pernicious effects of money, election fraud (not voter fraud) and Parties on our voting choices.
Electoral college is in Article 2 section 1 clause 2 of the United States Constitution. It would, indeed, take a Constitutional Amendment to change it.
Well, as a resident of california, i didn’t see much if any campaigning by either romney or obama. In fact it’s probably true of small states that lean one way or another.
I think if it were a popular vote, a vote that reflects people not states, then the candidates would be more inclined to put their efforts in all states.
Like you I would also like campaign finance reform that will reduce pay for play and allow more 3rd parties. I know, aint gonna happen!
The Republicscums will never allow any changes to the current “holy” (shithole) government rules. If the “holy rules” were changed and the universe did not implode, then it would just “encourage us” (the 99%) to demand even more changes which would not be good for the “perfect” system currently servicing the “1%”. It will be great irony and fun if the Romneynoid wins the popular vote but the lying Obamination wins the Electorial College (the Republican states did not sign up for the interstate compact). But still, the Repukes would not want to change the Holy Crapstitution.
The manipulation is just the last stage in the Madison-Avenuezation of elections. And you are right about the psychologists. I can’t tell you how many grant committees I sat on in which I reviewed research projects by psychologists working in business faculties on how better to manipulate people. It is blatant (and it pays).
Talk about red herrings – what the fuck does surface area have to with it? Do the trees and rocks vote? According to the US Census Wisconsin has a population of 5.7 million while the New England states have 14.4 million inhabitants. By your logic, Alaska and its 0.7 million inhabitants who live in a state that you could fit both Wisconin and the better part of New England into should even more say than your state.
The EC doesn’t have a “moderating” effect. It has the severely distorting effect of disenfranchising the majority of the American public from the presidential vote and for making the votes of sparesly populated states worth more than the votes of those who live in more populous areas which is a clear violation of the one person one vote principle.
I still don’t get why polling would determine a state’s electoral vote before the actual people vote.
I can’t figure it out. Polling changes with the tides, literally
Actually hope Mitt wins the popular vote and Obama wins the Electoral College. What goes around comes around and the sound of Republican heads exploding would sound like the world’s largest popcorn machine.
Sort of meaningless since many in blue states won’t bother to vote, especially with the storm.
This issue is easily solved, but not by a national popular vote!
What we need is what Nebraska and Maine already have. Each State just needs to change how they allocate their Electoral votes.
You’d win 2 Electoral votes if you win that State and then one additional Electoral vote for each Congressional district you win.
Example:
In California (53 Electoral votes) 2 go to the winner of the overall popular vote in California, and then one additional electoral vote for each of the 51 congressional districts.
This would require candidates to work hard in every State to win as many of that States electoral votes as possible, and if a recount is necessary you’d only have to recount in the one or two congressional districts that were close. With a National Popular vote you’d have to recount every single vote or over 100 million votes!
I just have to laugh. I have been through maybe 10 presidential elections and undoubtedly in the days prior to the election there is all kinds of criticism of the electoral college. One week from now the squawking will stop for approximately 4 years and 11 months. Then all the issues will be raised again. Kinda an electoral college groundhog day.
I agree with Disgusteddan completely.
That scheme still does not address the issue of votes in sparsely populated states being more valuable than votes in more populous states. And the recount argument is bogus too since with your scheme potentially each closely contested congressional district would have to be recounted. To do that you’d need better, more reliable and more verifiable voting technology that is uniformly distributed and administered. Once you’ve gone that far you might as well use the national popular vote.
Why not just have states apportion their electoral votes based on the percentage of votes each candidate receives in that state? Does not require a constitutional amendment since states are free to do this by passing a state law. Downside of course is if this presidential election will cost nearly $1billion just think if they had to campaign in all 50 states!
Well, Republicans wouldn’t want a popular vote, but for Democrats, a popular vote would lead to opening up the vote to as many people as possible in California, greater New England, and campaigning there for the maximum popular vote margin, while working hard to get out the minority vote in Southern States with a lot of support for minorities running for local office – that will trigger the conservatives working hard to suppress the vote of minorities which would limit the total vote because local politics is more important than the presidency to conservatives.
Lots of active Democratic campaigning in the compact blue states, very little in the low population conservative leaning flyover states.
The only contested State would be Florida, with Dean/Obama daring to aggressively go after Texas, forcing Texas conservatives into the vice of suppressing the vote and losing all possibility of the presidency, or opening up the vote to as many as possible in Florida and Texas while engaging in a fight for Latinos on economic equality issues.
The question is whether progressives could deliver huge margins in California and greater New England so the votes in the South, Florida, Texas, and flyover don’t matter even if they go 75% Republican.
Well, in 2001, the opposite happened, a quick election reform law that wasn’t well thought out that has perhaps caused more problems then it resolved. And a decade later the problems in Florida in 2000 are minor compared to what’s going on in Florida today.
Voting lists and elections for Federal office need to be Federalized with States optionally using them for their elections. The Constitution and amendments provides for it because it is clear the States have been unable to meet the uniform and non-discriminatory requirements for direct elections.
A survey of Maine voters showed 77% overall support for a national popular vote for President.
In a follow-up question presenting a three-way choice among various methods of awarding Maine’s electoral votes,
* 71% favored a national popular vote;
* 21% favored Maine’s current system of awarding its electoral votes by congressional district; and
* 8% favored the statewide winner-take-all system (i.e., awarding all of Maine’s electoral votes to the candidate who receives the most votes statewide).
***
A survey of Nebraska voters showed 74% overall support for a national popular vote for President.
In a follow-up question presenting a three-way choice among various methods of awarding Nebraska’s electoral votes,
* 60% favored a national popular vote;
* 28% favored Nebraska’s current system of awarding its electoral votes by congressional district; and
* 13% favored the statewide winner-take-all system (i.e., awarding all of Nebraska’s electoral votes to the candidate who receives the most votes statewide).
Dividing more states’ electoral votes by congressional district winners would magnify the worst features of the Electoral College system.
If the district approach were used nationally, it would be less fair and less accurately reflect the will of the people than the current system. In 2004, Bush won 50.7% of the popular vote, but 59% of the districts. Although Bush lost the national popular vote in 2000, he won 55% of the country’s congressional districts.
The district approach would not provide incentive for presidential candidates to campaign in a particular state or focus the candidates’ attention to issues of concern to the state. With the 48 state-by-state winner-take-all laws (whether applied to either districts or states), candidates have no reason to campaign in districts or states where they are comfortably ahead or hopelessly behind. In North Carolina, for example, there are only 2 districts (the 13th with a 5% spread and the 2nd with an 8% spread) where the presidential race is competitive. In California, the presidential race has been competitive in only 3 of the state’s 53 districts. Nationwide, there have been only 55 “battleground” districts that were competitive in presidential elections. With the present deplorable 48 state-level winner-take-all system, 80% of the states (including California and Texas) are ignored in presidential elections; however, 88% of the nation’s congressional districts would be ignored if a district-level winner-take-all system were used nationally.
Awarding electoral votes by congressional district could result in third party candidates winning electoral votes that would deny either major party candidate the necessary majority vote of electors and throw the process into Congress to decide.
Because there are generally more close votes on district levels than states as whole, district elections increase the opportunity for error. The larger the voting base, the less opportunity there is for an especially close vote.
Also, a second-place candidate could still win the White House without winning the national popular vote.
A national popular vote is the way to make every person’s vote equal and matter to their candidate because it guarantees that the candidate who gets the most votes in all 50 states and DC becomes President.
In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). Support for a national popular vote is strong among Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters, as well as every demographic group in virtually every state surveyed in recent polls in recent closely divided Battleground states: CO – 68%, FL – 78%, IA 75%, MI – 73%, MO – 70%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM– 76%, NC – 74%, OH – 70%, PA – 78%, VA – 74%, and WI – 71%; in Small states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK – 70%, DC – 76%, DE – 75%, ID – 77%, ME – 77%, MT – 72%, NE 74%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM – 76%, OK – 81%, RI – 74%, SD – 71%, UT – 70%, VT – 75%, WV – 81%, and WY – 69%; in Southern and Border states: AR – 80%, KY- 80%, MS – 77%, MO – 70%, NC – 74%, OK – 81%, SC – 71%, TN – 83%, VA – 74%, and WV – 81%; and in other states polled: AZ – 67%, CA – 70%, CT – 74%, MA – 73%, MN – 75%, NY – 79%, OR – 76%, and WA – 77%. Americans believe that the candidate who receives the most votes should win.
Since it was introduced in 2006, the National Popular Vote bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers in 21 states. The bill has been enacted by 9 jurisdictions possessing 132 electoral votes – 49% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.
NationalPopularVote
Follow National Popular Vote on Facebook via NationalPopularVoteInc
Any state that enacts the proportional approach on its own would reduce its own influence. This was the most telling argument that caused Colorado voters to agree with Republican Governor Owens and to reject this proposal in November 2004 by a two-to-one margin.
If the proportional approach were implemented by a state, on its own, it would have to allocate its electoral votes in whole numbers. If a current battleground state were to change its winner-take-all statute to a proportional method for awarding electoral votes, presidential candidates would pay less attention to that state because only one electoral vote would probably be at stake in the state.
The proportional method also could result in third party candidates winning electoral votes that would deny either major party candidate the necessary majority vote of electors and throw the process into Congress to decide.
If the whole-number proportional approach had been in use throughout the country in the nation’s closest recent presidential election (2000), it would not have awarded the most electoral votes to the candidate receiving the most popular votes nationwide. Instead, the result would have been a tie of 269–269 in the electoral vote, even though Al Gore led by 537,179 popular votes across the nation. The presidential election would have been thrown into Congress to decide and resulted in the election of the second-place candidate in terms of the national popular vote.
A system in which electoral votes are divided proportionally by state would not accurately reflect the nationwide popular vote and would not make every vote equal.
It would penalize states, such as Montana, that have only one U.S. Representative even though it has almost three times more population than other small states with one congressman. It would penalize fast-growing states that do not receive any increase in their number of electoral votes until after the next federal census. It would penalize states with high voter turnout (e.g., Utah, Oregon).
Moreover, the fractional proportional allocation approach does not assure election of the winner of the nationwide popular vote. In 2000, for example, it would have resulted in the election of the second-place candidate.
A national popular vote is the way to make every person’s vote equal and matter to their candidate because it guarantees that the candidate who gets the most votes in all 50 states and DC becomes President.
A nationwide presidential campaign, with every vote equal, would be run the way presidential candidates campaign to win the electoral votes of closely divided battleground states, such as Ohio and Florida, under the state-by-state winner-take-all methods.
The itineraries of presidential candidates in battleground states (and their allocation of other campaign resources in battleground states) reflect the political reality that every gubernatorial or senatorial candidate knows. When and where every vote is equal, a campaign must be run everywhere.
With National Popular Vote, when every vote is equal, everywhere, it makes sense for presidential candidates to try and elevate their votes where they are and aren’t so well liked. But, under the state-by-state winner-take-all laws, it makes no sense for a Democrat to try and do that in Vermont or Wyoming, or for a Republican to try it in Wyoming or Vermont.
I just had one of those “psychologists” hang up me. I told her that within the conspiracy theorists, there is the notion that goes “the lack of evidence is proof that the conspiracy is working”. She said that she was well aware of that kooky notion. That’s when I presented to her a conundrum: the only people that can claim such a notion is a “science” instead of a “conspiracy” are paradoxically the centrists-extremists who spent the last 40 years lampooning it.
She asked me how the fuck did I come up that whopper.
I said because the center-fetishists now can point to the period of time between Nixon and Obama — where Americans were literally harangued by dime-o-dozen pundits, preachers, shrinks, and psychiatrists to move on and stop re-litigating the past, hold you nose and vote, and blah blah blah both damned times — and say with a straight face that “the lack of evidence” (i.e. the “extremists” on the fringes taking turns killing each other in the streets in broad daylight) is proof that their moovsie-forwardsie bullshit worked. They literally can point to that period of time span and bellow with great self-serving gusto, “Our extremist centrism wasn’t a conspiracy – it was a science! Sure we lied, but nobody died!”
*CLICK*
I think I struck a nerve … =}