I’m getting two things out of Harry Reid’s post-election press conference. One, there will absolutely be changes to the filibuster in the next Congress. They may not be maximal changes, but I would get that the bulk of the Udall-Merkley reform program will get instituted.
In his first post-election press conference, the Nevada Democrat said he wouldn’t go so far as to eliminate the filibuster, which requires 60 votes for the chamber to enter and exit the amendment and debate process. But in remarks meant to preview a more combative approach during the next session, he warned Republicans that obstructionism as a tactic won’t be tolerated — or as technically feasible.
“I want to work together, but I also want everyone to also understand, you cannot push us around. We want to work together,” Reid said.
“I do” have plans to change the Senate rules, he added. “I have said so publicly and I continue to feel that way … I think the rules have been abused, and we are going to work to change them. We will not do away with the filibuster, but we will make the senate a more meaningful place. We are going to make it so we can get things done.”
My expectation is that Reid makes it dramatically easier to confirm nominees, and ends the filibuster on the motion to proceed, effectively cutting in half the time delays in the Senate. With Rick Berg conceding defeat in North Dakota and Angus King likely to caucus with Democrats, Reid will have 55 members and can even lose up to five of them on a vote to change the Senate rules. I think he will enforce party discipline here and get a lot of the changes, at the very least on eliminating the filibuster on the motion to proceed.
The second thing I got out of it is that Reid plans to milk the new American demographics for all they are worth in the next Congress, particularly on the issue of immigration.
“It’s very, very high on my list,” said Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the leader of the chamber’s re-elected Democratic majority, who vowed “to have some votes” on immigration.
Calling the Democrats “the party of diversity,” Reid said he would seek Republican votes on immigration and singled out Senator John McCain of Arizona, who earlier supported reform measures but later faced a conservative backlash.
“The only thing we need to get immigration reform done are a few Republican votes. I get 90 percent of the Democrats — couldn’t we get a few Republicans to join us?” Reid told reporters in Washington.
“If the Republicans continue, it’s at their peril. Not for political reasons — because it’s the wrong thing to do to not have comprehensive immigration reform. The system’s broken and needs to be fixed,” Reid said.
90% of the Democrats sounds about right – he’ll lose some at the margins, maybe as maybe as 5 votes. That would require 10 out of 45 Republicans to come forward – assuming the filibuster exists in some form – to pass a bill. And I think Reid knows that won’t happen. And even if it did, the House would be an even more impossible climb.
But the goal here is to only expand the Democratic lead in the Hispanic vote in national elections – now around 70% – and make it impossible for Republicans to ever win a nationwide race again. That’s a bit hyperbolic but it looks like the plan. It would be political malpractice not to use the leverage of demographics to pummel Republicans over immigration again and again. Reid knows it works because he wouldn’t be in the Senate right now without it. So he’s going for it.




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Saw a stat last night. Hispanics voted a whopping 87% for Obama in Colorado.
Democrats in the House passed an immigration bill to open the door to more immigration and create a big amnesty, and look where it got them? People in the media are falling all over each other about the Hispanic vote, repeating over and over again simplistic and flawed notions about Hispanics, immigration and how they are going to affect elections. Maybe Hispanics did help Obama in Colorado. I heard that Hispanics helped George W. Bush win back in 2004. The Hispanic vote is way more complex than these pundits and reporters seem to realize. Their bias betrays them.
An 87% share does a bit more than “maybe” help! But I agree that the Latino vote is hardly monolithic. However, I am sorry, gunner, many of those “flawed and simplistic” notions are nonetheless factual.
What always concerns me about Democrats when they win is they tend to engage in fantasy about what they will accomplish and/or the abilities of Democratic politicians. We’ve seen all too many times how the Democrats throw away victories or seek to emulate Republican political tactics by choosing to appear strong by rubbing issues in Republican’s faces only to see it done ineffectively thereby damaging their own position on the issue. In this case, the Democrats should urge the Republicans to put their ideas on the table first before moving forward. Since the Democrats’ ideas are already out there, it behooves the Republicans to show how they intend to adjust to the new political realities this election has revealed to them and not just the same idea of militarizing the border. You can’t win on this issue by browbeating them, but you can if you make them make the uncomfortable moves of explaining to the nation (and more importantly to their party)just what they are willing to moderate and accept. Browbeating will only heighten their defensiveness and lead to serial Democratic missteps that make Democrats look weak and ineffective.
Republicans didn’t lose because of their immigration policies, though. Overall, Republicans lost because they are too far to the right on social issues, but they have a problem because their ‘base’ really believes in them, of course. In my state, for example, Michigan, Republicans are losing at the national level because moderate women who might otherwise vote Republican in larger numbers won’t do so because of Republicans’ position on abortion.
When I said ‘maybe’ that just means I don’t necessarily accept the assertion as a fact simply because someone here says it’s so. It might also be true that Hispanics helped Bush win reelection in 2004.
All of these people talking about Hispanics assume that their vote is monolithic and that it will stay the same over time. Their model is that the Hispanic vote is like the black vote. But Hispanics don’t vote the way blacks vote. Their vote is more similar to other immigrants. Sometime check out Sean Trende’s latest book and read the chapter on Hispanics. It’s interesting.
Oh I think it definitely hurt them among Latinos. If Romney captured even just McCain’s level of Latino support, he might have won. I do agree though that social issues in general destroyed the Republicans but immigration is also a social issue as well as an economic one. I also agree that the most potent social issue working against them was women’s issues however my main point wasn’t what issue mattered most in their defeat, rather that Democrats should exercise caution in using the immigration issue against Republicans going forward. I’ve seen too many times Democrats doing dances in the end zone before actually winning and then looking stupid and ineffectual when the other side refuses to play along. Basically, use the issue to make them uncomfortable, but don’t be cocky. Frankly, the majority of Democrats also don’t agree with amnesty or “reform” (whatever that means) without a sizable penalty being exacted for breaking the law or increased enforcement. It’s not the slam dunk that some nominally Left-wing talking heads would like to believe.
I’d like to see a link on that, please.