Liberals are working hard to more accurately name the fiscal cliff. They want to remove the sense of immediacy, the idea that the world would end on January 1 if Congress takes no action on expiring tax and spending policies. Democrats would benefit from a strategic standpoint from “going over the cliff” in many cases, so they want to ensure that people understand that Americans won’t immediately find themselves in a punishing recession on January 2.
However, there is a fiscal cliff intertwined with all the other expiring measures. That would be the extended unemployment insurance which expires at the end of the year. With no action, two million long-term unemployed would lose their benefits for Christmas.
The economy has improved slightly, but not to the point where people without a job can quickly find one. The average duration of unemployment remains over 40 weeks. If federal benefits aren’t extended, current and future unemployed Americans would see their benefits run out at 27 weeks, if that (it depends on the state). Right now, the jobless are eligible for up to 73 weeks of benefits. Republicans already forced a gradual shrinking of this safety net from 99 weeks to 73, as part of the payroll tax deal at the beginning of the year. Only half of the unemployed collect benefits at this point; letting federal benefits expire would cut off another quarter.
Maybe for the purposes of the sequester or the Bush tax cuts, “cliff” serves as a bad metaphor. The spending cuts or tax raises happen gradually. For the unemployed, “cliff” is very apt. Suddenly their benefit check stops arriving. Their visible means of support is gone. The unemployment check in many cases comprises the entirety of the household income. This could lead to mass poverty, foreclosure, homelessness. It won’t lead, as Republicans seem to think, to some newfound self-reliance, as long-term unemployed break free of the dependency state and through sheer will return to the workforce. With 3.6 million job openings and 12.3 million unemployed, the math equation just doesn’t add up to absorbing all these people cut off from their benefits back into the labor force.
What’s more, extended unemployment benefits, which for a year would cost around $39 billion, happens to be among the best forms of economic stimulus. The money goes immediately into the hands of people who will spend it. It has one of the highest economic multipliers – bang for the buck – out there.
Extended federal unemployment benefits have never been cut off before when the topline unemployment rate sits above 7.2%. We’re currently at 7.9%. I suppose you could see a trigger mechanism, where benefits get phased out once unemployment hits some lower number for a series of months.
But it’s likely that this is the first article you’ve read about the imminent expiration of unemployment benefits. With talk of cliff metaphors and the Bush-era tax cuts and the defense sequester dominating the scene, nobody in Washington seems to remember that 2 million Americans are counting on their actions in the next seven weeks. The only people who would see immediate, catastrophic effect from Congress’ failure to act are the desperately vulnerable long-term unemployed.





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This is the best shot from the austerity caucus, according to Zach Goldfarb last night at WaPo:
“From five percent … to six percent.” That’s why we should get hysterical about Social Security.
Medicare & Medicaid are already a full five percent of “the economy,” presumably meaning they contribute 5% to GDP. Thus, they are health care manufacturers, for a gigantic proportion of the non-plutocrat population. A major chunk of the entire health care industry (which totals waaaaay more than 5% of GDP), especially hospitals and long-term care facilities, relies primarily on Medicare and Medicaid.
Who says our country is threatened by too much healthcare? Why should we want to stop healthcare financed by Medicare & Medicaid from expanding? How is their expansion from 5% to 10% a threat to national security?
How does it work in a state (I use the term loosely since I am in DC) which provides only 26 weeks of unemployment? Does every unemployed person who is jobless for more than 26 weeks get to switch to the Emergency UC program?
Look for the extension of unemployment benefits to be used as a club to hit liberals over the head and persuade them to accept the Grand Bargain. After all, it worked during the debt ceiling negotiations. This time the line will be, “If you don’t support slashing the safety net, you hate the long-term unemployed and want them to starve.”
Yep and tn there dod budget that doubled in 10yrs we surely don’t stop the wars and trim this down to nothing to help the people of Main Street.
For those who think there is a “fiscal cliff” read this article. It’s amazing how the propaganda affects thinking people.
http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2012/11/an-mmt-fiscal-responsibility-narrative-some-truths-after-a-second-crowd-sourcing-revision.html
It’s amazing how Obama doesn’t even try to understand the will of the electorate. If you read the exit polls, it looks like raising taxes on the wealthy and not messing with the safety net were the demands of the people. So of course Obama thinks he just didn’t do enough barnstorming DURING THE ELECTION. If he just tells us enough, eventually we too will want to slit our own necks so he can say he saved the country from the fiscal cliff by slicing up entitlements. Brilliant.
With a Fake Democrat in the White House, we have seen no progress on government creation of jobs. This is not the first time that the Fake Democrat in the White House has let the long-term unemployed become hostages to his plan to cut Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid while promising all things to all people who are defense or military related.
Finally, this UI blackmailing is demanding that the young sacrifice their one future resource to protect them from poverty (when I am not around to fight for them) in order to continue UI benefits in the present. If this devil’s bargain goes through…….then…….Just as joblessness predominantly affects those of working age, so will cuts to Social Security reduce these now young, future seniors, from having anything to place between themselves and future poverty in old age.
http://my.firedoglake.com/tomthumb/2012/11/04/attacks-on-social-security-are-attacks-on-todays-youth-the-seniors-of-2050-and-beyond/
The politicians are exploiting this Catch-22 situation for their own career gains. What is becoming more clear is how they do not care about the people, both when the people are young and when the people become old.
The President and Congress are playing political “Chicken” with not them but other people being hurt in the car crash. Also, a lot of those unemployed do not connect with their situation with votes for Republicans and Democrats–and likely are scared by the debt scolds.
To my mind, the most effective solution is to let the deadline pass, let taxes rise, automatic sequesters take place, extended unemployment stop. At which point it is the Republican House that clearly must fix it and stop playing games.
Yes, I am waiting to see what President Obama is going to be selling on the road as his “balanced approach”. And I hope that he goes to some Republican strongholds and hears “Don’t touch my Social Security or Medicare” And hears from the unemployed about extended unemployment benefits. Which btw are also a political football in the states–as they set the size of the payments and administer the program; all the federal government does is backfill their funds up to the amount Congress appropriates and authorizes extended benefits.
Obamas #1 priority for his first term was reform the health care system and stop the out of control inflation in that sector of our economy and through “bipartisanship” he managed to accomplish the opposite and big Pharma and Insurance Co.’s were the big winners.
Why is anyone thinking he is on the side of the majority of Americans. He isn’t and we have no voice in Government. Nothing has changed since 2008, lobbyist and special interests own the Government and logic, common sense for the common good are fun to talk about but it is just talk. Austerity is where we are going and greed and avarice will rule the day until the breaking point for the 99%. Our slightly improving economy is a farce and we are in a recession sans the fudged numbers and false statistics made up by the PR machine we now have controlling the Oval Office and the Senate and House.
All this BS is just so much shuffling around the deck chairs as Mother Nature prepares our societies epitaph.