I don’t think this will be a regular feature, but here are a few things on everybody’s favorite cliff/slope metaphor that caught my eye at the end of the day:
First of all, unions are so far following through on protecting social insurance against potential attacks from both parties:
The American Federation Of State, County and Municipal Employees, the National Education Association and the Service Employees International Union are teaming up on the project. It will include a “six-figure buy” with an “opening salvo of ads” focused on protecting health care, education and Social Security in any deficit or debt reduction deal, according to a labor source. The unions have argued that any final deal should instead lean more on higher tax rates for the wealthiest Americans.
Copies of the ads were not immediately available. But a source familiar with the campaign says they will air in Virginia, Missouri and Colorado, among other states. The Democratic senators in those states — Mark Warner of Virginia, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, and Mark Udall and Michael Bennet of Colorado — have all already voted to extend the Bush-era tax cuts only for income below $250,000. But they also considered to be among the likelier suspects to cut a deal with Republican lawmakers on a measure that would include more dramatic entitlement reforms.
This is the kind of maneuver that would have gotten you called a certain unfortunate epithet for mentally challenged Americans by Rahm Emanuel. But I guess it’s a new day and the unions, at least for now, have no problem pressuring Democrats.
And it’s clear that Democrats need the pressure:
Q: Obama has already suggested raising the retirement age for Medicare. Should that be the starting point for thinking about entitlement savings?
Sen. Conrad: I wouldn’t want that to be the starting point, but as part of an overall package, that’s balanced and fair. Given that we now have exchanges to purchase insurance because of the president’s health-care reform law, it makes it much more acceptable, much more reasonable, over a long period of time to gradually increase the age given that people are living so much longer.
Kent Conrad also said that Social Security has nothing to do with the deficit and should be handled separately. And he highlighted other areas of mandatory spending – “agriculture, federal employees, military health care” – for cuts, while saying “We should not look just to entitlements for savings.” But this mindset, that you can throw in an increase in the Medicare eligibility age if it gets you to a deal, is quite pernicious. First of all, there are all kinds of ways to save money in Medicare without going to a benefit cut like raising the eligibility age. Moreover, I don’t see the exchanges as a viable replacement for Medicare, and neither does Conrad, otherwise he would have endorsed dismantling Medicare and moving it into the exchanges for the purposes of broadening the risk pool.
In fact, Nancy Pelosi rejected this logic today:
Why are we relating revenue to Medicare, or Medicaid, whatever? Those issues, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, they should be in their own realm.
One new wrinkle here is that Democrats are starting to talk about more stimulus as a bright line in the debate, a must-include in any deal. That could take the form of extending the payroll tax cut or something like it, or infrastructure spending. This hearkens back to the “barbell” approach, with spending up-front and deficit reduction on the back end. Conrad, in his interview with Suzy Khimm, floated something like $300 billion of stimulus in 2013 as part of the deal.




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Hmm. Did they renounce their good standing memberships in the Veal Pen?
*sighs*
It’s pointless. The Veal Pen is too strong. If the pod people have Dayen too, then truly all hope is lost.
For the record… Union leaders meet with Obama, back austerity drive against workers.
And although I am not a Trotskyist, I’ll take their analysis easily over that of the Veal Pen, not least of which because more often than not their analysis is correct, especially as it pertains to labor issues.
Pelosi’s just playing good cop. Her opinion is worthless since the GOP house will surely vote to cut SS & Medicare. She is just playing to retain some semblance of Dmeocratic purity on SS & Medicare.
Kabuki. Obama wants “entitlements” that we have paid for all our working lives cut. Period.
Is Conrad a liar or just ignorant? People are not living longer, they are actually dying sooner. The only demographic living longer are affluent Americans. It would be criminal to raise the Medicare age.
There are good reasons to let the austerity actually be triggered at the end of December. Among the best is that Kent Conrad and Joe Lieberman are not in the next Congress. Another is that it puts it clearly and not ambiguously in the lap of the Republican House to deal with the military cuts they so hate, which means that they have to spend and identify what their priorities really are instead of just sitting on the sidelines saying “No”.
But the big one is that the austerity does not touch Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security at all. And Obama’s plan for implementing it exempts military pay and veterans benefits as well.
I’m not predicting the outcome. But I will be watching what happens because it’s a tell as to how the next Congress will work (or not work).
Conrad is the guy who extorted the Simpson-Bowles Commission out of Obama in exchange for allowing reconciliation in amending the Affordable Care Act and increasing student aid.
Kent Conrad is the go-to guy to introduce Bowles Simpson into the lame duck debt reduction debates:
As of April 2012 he was advancing this plan.
Bowles-Simpson chairmens’ plan was to raise Social Security age from 67 to 69, with early retirement age moved from 62 to 64. Also they cut benefits to within a narrow range, 8k-14-15K and changed the COLA for current retirees. They are bad news for young people and for seniors.
CBPP did a study of their recommendations HERE.
You can see visibly how the benefits rates would be reduced and flattened for young people entering the workforce now if you take a good look at Figure #2.
Yes. Raising the Medicare age would actually increase the overall cost of healthcare spending and leave many who could not obtain Medicare due to age, without any health insurance.
Here’s a good link on that. They only have one chart to look at but it is a firm indictment of this proposal.
“…. it makes it much more acceptable, much more reasonable, over a long period of time to gradually increase the age given that people are living so much longer.”
Cut Medicare and they won’t be. Unemployed workers over 50 stay unemployed over twice as long as younger workers and frequently must take jobs with reduced pay and benefits just as they enter the decade where many of us experience serious medical issues for the first time in our lives. The notion that these workers can buy insurance on the exchanges is beyond ludicrous.
The goal seems to be to create a “donut hole” where workers must spend away everything they have worked for all their lives before any assistance kicks in.
The “safety net” should be strengthened for these workers not weakened.
What is more important though is that cuts to Social Security and Medicare disproportionately impact women, according to Richard Eskow:
“
Life expectancy tables have changed and are more grim going forward. There’s no basis for reducing years spent in retirement (past the current age of 66) based upon life expectancy statistics. In fact, one could argue that because we have raised the age for eligibility for Social Security to 67, that we might have compensated for any increase in life expectancy since the 1980s.
Here is a recent paper which discusses life expectancy and which is the basis for my arguments above.
Nobody extorted Simpson Bowles from Obama. Come on now.
The deal made to raise the ss eligibility age essentially wiped out all the benefit of the post WWII productivity gains for the entire middle class.
My heart goes out to anyone who is unemployed in this country at this time. People who want to raise ages for SS or MA, just don’t realize how stressful unemployment is on individuals and on families. The political atmosphere is hostile toward people who are out of work, and the politicians have become masters of deflection. If they took responsibility for their actions they would be too ashamed to even think of cutting these benefits and their first order of business would be to meet with those who have lost jobs, lost homes and lost families, instead of hanging out with CEOs and Wall Streeters.
Most of the people who rely on SS and MA are part of the large group who earn low and middle incomes during their working lives. They have not benefited from increases in life expectancy as much as have their affluent peers. Raising eligibility ages is robbing them of income and health security.
I foresee a deserted atoll awash in the Pacific coming very soon to our TPP PTB.
Let them eat coconuts.
I would just like to add that “people are NOT LIVING LONGER” or, they wont’ be for very much longer.
It’s a specious argument