When you talk about tail risk for the US economy, sweeping away the European crisis and the fiscal cliff, perhaps the biggest potential comes from an oil price shock. Combined with any fiscal tightening, that could easily snap the US into recession. And the biggest threat of this stems not from the protests outside US [...]

In addition to the tragic situation in Libya, another international incident simmered last night, on the subject of Israel and Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a speech claiming that the US had “no moral right” to intervene in a potential Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, unless they too set a “red line” [...]

A startling report in Israeli paper Haaretz claims that Defense Minister Ehud Barak has now flipped and opposes a strike on Iranian nuclear sites, after supporting the project as recently as a couple months ago. There are suggestions in the piece that pressure from American generals has moved him in that direction: Word is that [...]

Responding to a hissy fit ginned up by a random Weekly Standard writer, and carried along by Fox News, Democrats just changed their platform a day after they adopted it, adding language saying that “Jerusalem is and will remain the capital of Israel,” and adding a reference to God. Both parts were in the 2008 [...]

The Democratic platform on Iran has a mix of pleas for a diplomatic solution combined with the ever-present threats and vows of military force if required. It acknowledges straight-out that “Iran has yet to build a nuclear weapon” but adds that the country has “failed to meet its obligations under the NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty). [...]

Looks like we’re scheduled to endure another round of hype about Iran’s nuclear program. David Sanger writes in today’s New York Times about an imminent IAEA report. International nuclear inspectors will soon report that Iran has installed hundreds of new centrifuges in recent months and may also be speeding up production of nuclear fuel while [...]

I hate to harp on one speech by Mitt Romney, but it was quite illustrative on another count. This unintentionally revealing statement is getting a lot of scrutiny today: “Do you realize what health care spending is as a percentage of the G.D.P. in Israel? Eight percent,” [Romney] said. “You spend eight percent of G.D.P. [...]

Mitt Romney’s national security advisor Dan Senor caused a stir yesterday when he said the candidate would respect a decision by Israel to unilaterally strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities. This sent the Romney campaign into yet another round of damage control on this overseas tour. But the bigger issue was a separate statement said by [...]

Yesterday’s attack on the seat of power in Syria (which was not, as initially reported, a suicide attack but a remote-controlled bomb, which actually requires more pre-planning) has completely changed the dynamic in that country. Fighting continues in the neighborhoods surrounding Damascus, the capital, including in patches close to government buildings and the presidential palace. [...]

Since the beginning of the Iranian oil embargo imposed by the EU July 1, the press reports have sought to increase tensions between Iran and the West rather than reduce them. Witness today’s story about Iran disguising its oil tankers to get around the embargo, proving their duplicity and desperation. Or witness the highlighting of [...]

In an unexpected development, Benjamin Netanyahu has canceled early elections in Israel, instead forming a unity government with Kadima, the center-right rival recently taken over by Shaul Mofaz. The elections, which would have taken place in September, will now get delayed a year. Under the agreement, Kadima will join Netanyahu’s government and commit to supporting [...]