First-time jobless claims spiked to 439,000 after nearly a year under 400,000. The reason for this sudden weakness in the US economy? Suprestorm Sandy. This sharp increase is due to Hurricane Sandy as claims increased significantly in the impacted areas. Note the spike in 2005 related to hurricane Katrina – we are seeing a similar [...]

As we try to soak in what the President just had to say, keep in mind that there’s a growing citizen-led movement, backed by labor and progressive groups, to push Democrats away from anything approaching a grand bargain that would cut Medicare, Medicaid or Social Security (they should also be protective of regular discretionary spending, [...]

David Callahan had a smart column in The American Prospect about natural and economic disasters, and why they must be met with the same level of urgency. If most of us take for granted that we should be there for our fellow citizens during natural disasters, using the tool of government, why is it so [...]

The US economy continues to add jobs, and October’s establishment survey showed a solid increase of 171,000, with upward revisions to August (to +192,000 from +142,000) and September (to +148,000 from +114,000). The unemployment rate in the household survey, however, which went down markedly to 7.8% in September, ticked up to 7.9% in October. The [...]

I’m skeptical that monthly job reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics move voters in any way. People live in the real economy, and they’ve already made up their minds about it. Nevertheless, tomorrow’s jobs report, which despite Hurricane Sandy will arrive on schedule, will no doubt get hyped as TEH MOST IMPORTANT JOBS REPORT [...]

Consumer confidence numbers have picked up steadily over the past three months, and Americans now feel better about the economy as a whole and their personal economic conditions. Further evidence for this can be seen in the rise in consumer spending in September, at twice the rate of the rise in personal income. Whether it’s [...]

The known late-campaign “surprise” were the final pre-election jobs report scheduled for Friday. Both campaigns were poised to jump on whatever positive or negative numbers came out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But the unknown late-campaign “surprise,” Hurricane Sandy, which before it even hits land has flooded coastal areas all over New York and [...]

As is typical for Washington trial balloons, the White House is denying a report that they would push for a tax cut similar to Making Work Pay to replace the payroll tax cut and continue the stimulative wage subsidy effect amid an economy that’s still growing too slowly. Allowing the payroll tax cut to expire, [...]

The Bureau of Economic Analysis rates 3rd quarter GDP with a preliminary estimate of 2.0%, an increase from the previous quarter but not the kind of economic growth normally associated with reducing the unemployment rate in rapid fashion. GDP in the second quarter increased 1.3%, so this represents an acceleration on growth, albeit a modest [...]

Gallup has a critical poll out today that makes no mention of Barack Obama or Mitt Romney, but tells us something about the economy. For the first time in more than five years, slightly more Americans are feeling financially better off than they were a year ago, rather than worse off, by 38% to 34%. [...]

The Federal Reserve stood pat today, determining that they would continue with QE3 despite the relative improvement in economic performance. This clears one hurdle lingering in the minds of some observers: would the Fed have the resolve to stay the course, even if the economy strengthened, which would probably lead to an uptick in inflation? [...]