Fears that the Syrian Civil War would cause further regional instability seem to have been justified as the Syrian government has stated that airstrikes from Israel constitute a declaration of war. A war between Syria and Israel could draw Iran and the United States directly into the conflict. A series of massive explosions illuminated the [...]

President Obama held a press conference today. Highlights: * Still considers chemical weapons use in Syria a “red line” but needs more information to say the regime was responsible. Called for Assad to step down again. * Went on a long denunciation of Airline delay bill/sequester carve out before confirming that he signed the bill [...]

American officials, including Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, have now stated that they believe the Syrian government has used chemical weapons against their people. This act crosses the “red line” President Obama declared existed and that, if crossed, would lead to direct American involvement in the Syrian Civil War. The United States now believes the [...]

An Israeli official has claimed that chemical weapons have been used in Syria, crossing the stated “red line” of the Obama Administration regarding U.S involvement in the Syrian Civil War. A senior Israeli official said Wednesday that it is “apparently clear” that chemical weapons were recently used in Syria, and that the alleged attack will [...]

American officials have now confirmed that Israel did in fact launch an airstrike within Syria. A charge Syria made previously but Israel would not confirm. The now confirmed airstrike could cause an expansion of the Civil War in Syria to other countries in the Middle East igniting a larger conflict in the region. From the [...]

American involvement in the civil war in Syria has been perilous. On the one hand the Assad regime is a no friend to America or its allies (principally Israel) so seeing it fall would seem to be advantageous and on the other hand the opposition to the Assad regime within Syria seems to have Al-Qaeda [...]

The crisis between Turkey and Syria intensified today. Turkey’s top military commander warned the Syrians that his country would “respond more strongly” to persistent cross-border attacks that have already killed a handful of Turkish nationals. Turkey has already responded with shelling against targets inside Syria. This threatens opening up a second front in Syria’s civil [...]

In a speech today at the Virginia Military Institute, Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney will commit to arming Syrian rebels, and will attribute the attack on the US consulate in Benghazi to the “same forces that attacked our homeland on September 11th, 2001,” which under the still-active Authorization to Use Military Force commits the United [...]

Turkey’s Parliament approved military action against Syria yesterday, though they downplayed it as not a prelude to an invasion or a “war mandate.” But while Syria apologized for cross-border shelling that killed five in Turkey and drew this response, the Turkish military fired over the border for a second day, as the Turkish Prime Minister [...]

Meanwhile, we had cross-border acts of war administered yesterday between a NATO ally and their neighbor. Turkey struck with artillery strikes on Syria yesterday, after one of their border towns was hit with a mortar, killing 5 Turks. This has the potential to escalate very quickly. Turkey stepped up retaliatory artillery strikes on a Syrian [...]

When you talk about tail risk for the US economy, sweeping away the European crisis and the fiscal cliff, perhaps the biggest potential comes from an oil price shock. Combined with any fiscal tightening, that could easily snap the US into recession. And the biggest threat of this stems not from the protests outside US [...]